Nostre ferias representa pro nos le ver libertate.
Durante nostre dies feriate (e, pro le major parte
de nos, solmente durante iste dies!) nos pote
persequer
"le vita, le libertate, e le felicitate," le ideales
del Declaration de Independentia american.
Nos es nunc in le limine de un revolution robotic.
Le technologia informatic ha advantiate rapidemente
in le ultime quaranta annos. Cata dece-octo menses
nostre computatores ha duplicate lor velocitate
de computation e immagazinage in un processo
cognoscite
como le lege de Moore.
Si on simplemente extrapola iste tendentias, on
trova que nostre computatores habera, plus o minus in
le anno 2040, le capacitate de un cerebro human.
Probabilemente iste processo de evolution continuara
e post 2040 nostre computatores essera plus
intelligente que nos. Inter altere cosas, illos
probabilemente habera nostre capacitates visual
e linguistic.
Iste capacitates essera basate in parte in studios
del neurologia human. Ma illos anque essera basate
in circuitos e systemas de memoria que le processos
de evolution biologic non nos ha date.
Pro multe millennios, il pare, nos ha essite le
animales le plus intelligente sur nostre planeta.
Il anque pare que nos nunc crea le proxime sede
de intelligentia in nostre systemas informatic.
Con solmente unes pauc innovationes, robots
intelligente habera le talentos de facer un grande
varietate de travalio human--probabilemente omne
nostre travalios essential--intra cinquanta annos.
Illos cultivara nostre nutrimentos, pro exemplo,
los imballara e los transportara.
In 1903, quando le fratres Wright volava le prime
vice in lor prime avion, nemo poteva imaginar que
50 annos plus tarde nos haberea aviones de passageros
como illos de Boeing o Airbus. De un maniera simile,
nos non pote imaginar multo facilemente le advento
de robots intelligente e versatile que facera quasi
omne nostre travalio economic.
Si nostre robots pote facer omne iste travalio,
omne nostre tempore debe esser libere de travalio.
Infelicemente, secundo le structura currente de
nostre economias, il esserea multo difficile arrivar
a un nove paradigmo de recompenso.
Probabilemente ante facer transitiones in nostre
economias, nos confrontara crises massive de
disimpleo. O forsan nos creara nove travalios
economicamente inutile pro iste victimas de disimpleo.
Ma le tertie option, vermente revolutionari, es
lassar que nostre robots face le travalios que illos
pote durante que nos paga a nostre population
disimpleate le equivalente del salarios de nostre
robots si illos esseva travaliatores human.
Secundo le patronos currente de nostre economias,
milliones de personas travalia pro inricchir un
population multo reducite. In le Statos Unite,
pro exemplo 3.500.000 personas travalia a salarios
minime pro permitter que le functionarios e le
actioneros ric qui possede iste corporationes deveni
ricchissime.
Con lor moneta, iste gente megaric compra politicos
o directemente o indirectemente trans le servicios
de agentes qui sape corrumper les. Assi, in le
Statos Unite, le salarios del presidentes de nostre
corporationes ha augmentate per un factor de dece
desde 1980.
Dick Grasso, con su salario annual de $140.000.000
es un exemplo multo recente e specialmente ultragiose
de iste tendentia, ma il ha milles de alteres:
Ebbers, Anschutz, Gates, Case, etc. Intertanto,
nostre salario minimo non ha cambiate desde 1997.
Le uso de Robots accelera iste processo. McDonald's
nunc comencia le uso kiosks automatic que su clientes
pote usar pro indicar le typo de hamburgers e bibitas
que illes vole, e nostre technologia jam ha
disveloppate robots que sape cocer iste hamburgers.
Secundo nostre paradigma economic currente, multes
ex le impleatos qui serve le clientes de McDonald's
perdera lor travalios, e le moneta que se dedicava
a lor salarios inricchira le actioneros e le personal
in le direction de iste corporationes.
In vice de lassar que nostre gente megaric nata
in un oceano de moneta create per le productivitate
de lor robots, nos debe diverter le aquas de ille
oceano pro provider un piscina de moneta pro cata
persona. Nos poterea dar a omnes un stipendio
generose
de, que nos dice, $25.000 o $30.000 cata anno, e
nos poterea augmentar iste stipendios durante que
le productivitate de nostre robots augmenta.
Multes dice que "sin travalio, le major parte de
nostre population non habera ullo a facer." Ma
le responsa a iste objection es facile: Que facerea
vos si vos personalmente reciperea $25.000 cata
anno? Si vos es un artista, vos travaliarea sur
vostre arte. So vos es un autor, vos scriberea.
Inventores inventarea, e dansatores dansarea. Con
iste liberation economic, le creativitate human,
tout simplement, exploderea.
Nos debe comenciar tosto le planification necesse
pro reconfigurar nostre economias pro dar a nos
omnes un portion equal del fructos del labor de
nostre robots durante que illos deveni plus productive
de maniera que nos potera eliminar le miseria de
gente qui nunquam potera travaliar con le efficacitate
de nostre nove generationes de robots.
(Adaptate de un articulo per Marshall Brain publicate
in le "Los Angeles Times", 15 octobre 2003, p. B13.
Brain inaugurava le sito
<http://www.HowStuffWorks.com>.)
---
For us, our vacation days represent true liberty.
For most of us it is only during these days that
we can we can pursue "life, liberty and happiness,"
the ideals expressed in our Declaration of
Independence.
We are now on the threshold of a revolution in
robotics. Computer science has advanced very rapidly
in the last forty years. Every eighteen months
our computers have doubled their speed and storage
capacity in a process known as Moore's Law.
If we simply extrapolate these tendencies, we will
find that our computers will have the capacity of
a human brain more or less by the year 2040. Probably
this process of evolution will go on, and after
2040 our computers will be more intelligent than
we are. Among other things, they will probably
have our visual and language skills.
These skills will be based in part on research into
human neurology. But they will also be based on
circuits and memory systems that biological evolution
has not given us.
For many millennia, it seems, we have been the most
intelligent animals on our planet. It also seems
that we are now creating the next seat of intelligence
in our computers, both individual ones and systems
of them linked into networks.
With just a few innovations, intelligent robots
will have the skills needed to do a large variety
of human work--probably all our essential work--within
fifty years. They will raise our food, for example,
and pack and ship it.
In 1903, when the Wright Brothers made their first
flight, no one was able to imagine that fifty years
later we would have passenger planes like the ones
made by Boeing or Airbus Industries. In the same
way, we can't imagine very easily the advent of
intelligent and versatile robots that will do almost
all our economic work.
If our robots can do all this work, all our free
time should be free from drudgery. Unfortunately,
according to the current structure of our economies,
it will be very hard to come up with a new way of
looking at income.
Probably before making changes in our economies,
we will confront massive crises of unemployment.
Or maybe we will create new forms of economically
useless work for these victims of unemployment.
But the third option, a really revolutionary one,
is to let our robots do the work they are capable
of while we pay our unemployed population the
equivalent of their salaries if they were human
workers.
According to the current patterns in our economies,
millions of people work to enrich a very small
population. In the United States, for example,
3,500,000 people work at minimum wage to allow the
executives and stockholders of our corporations
to become incredibly rich.
With their money, these megarich people can buy
politicians either directly or indirectly through
the services of lobbyists. Thus, in the United
States, the salaries of our corporation presidents
have increased by a factor of ten since 1980.
Dick Grasso, with his annual salary of $140,000,000,
is an exemple of this recent and utterly outrageous
tendency, but there are thousands of others: Ebbers,
Anschutz, Gates, Case, etc. In the meantime, our
minimum wage has not gone up since 1997.
The use of robots will accelerate this process.
McDonald's has now started the use of automated
kisoks to take orders, and our technology has now
developed robots that know how to cook hamburgers.
According to our current economic paradigm, many
of the employees serving McDonald's customers will
lose their jobs, and the money used for their salaries
will enrich the stockholders and the management
personnel of these corporations.
Instead of letting our megarich swim in an ocean
of money created by the productivity of their robots,
we should divert the water from that ocean into
a swimming-pool of money for each individual person.
We could give everyone a generous stipend of, let's
say, $25,000 to $30,000 a year and we could increase
their value as the productivity of our robots goes
up.
Many people say that "without work, most of our
people would have nothing to do." But it's easy
to respond to this objection: What would you do
if you yourself received $25,000 a year? If you
are an artist, you would work on your art. If you
are an author, you would write. Inventors would
invent, and dancers would dance. With this economic
liberty, human creativity, quite simply, would
explode.
We should soon start to make necessary plans for
reconfiguring our economies to give all of us an
equal portion of the fruits of labor of our robots
as they become more productive so that we can
eliminate
the poverty of people who will never be able to
work as efficiently as our new generations of robots.
(Adapted from an article by Marshall Brain published
in the "Los Angeles Times," October 15, 2003, p. B13.
Brain established the web site <http://www.HowStuffWorks.com>.)
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