Yahya:

Thanks for your prospective on the Fisheries project and its possible
positive impact on the Gambian economy.  My rebuttal of the idea as a waste
of money was not a rejection of the idea completely, as a result of
scepticism about whether the present regime is able to run anything save a
fishing industry.  For this reason, I said that it would be a waste of money.
 I did not however elaborate on why this was the case.

My other issue with the way this project was touted to be such a good idea is
because, in the grand scale of things, this new fishing complex will hardly
improve the dire situation back home.  If, as you suggested, a many fisheries
plants are opened by competent experts in areas where labour is abundant and
employment is needed, then I would be a bit less sceptical of its possible
positive impact on the economy. And even in this case, the consequences might
be dire:

First, fishing processing plants are the source of very dangerous waste
products which must be treated.  Therefore, if a whole industry is developed
around this idea, the government will also have to build waste treatment
facilities to combat this problem.  The money to build these waste treatment
plants will have to come out of the taxpayers money, and, if as you
suggested, all these plants are built close to the River Gambia, then the
potential for massive pollution of this river will be endless.  I am sure you
realise the consequences of polluting the river.

Secondly, the artisan local fishermen would have to suffer the consequence of
their way of living being possibly brought to an abrupt end by these fishing
industries.  Many tribes and communities back home have for thousands of
years used their fishing skills to make a living for themselves.  So, how
does the government deal with this consequence?

Thirdly, the government is expected to tax these industries to make revenue.
But as it stands now the government is offering incredulous tax cuts and
concessions for companies who want to start such industries back home: The
concessions include, no taxes for the first five years.  1/3 of the regular
tax rate in the sixth year.  In fact, full taxation will not be applied until
the 9th year from the start of a fishing plant.  In addition to this, no
duties will be imposed on any of the machinery imported for these plants.
Yes, these industries might provide jobs for Gambians who will pay taxes in
return.  But the real money earners will not pay taxes for 8 years.  Is this
a wise policy? I'll let you figure the formulas out since I am not an
economist .

To buttress my point, it turns out that this touted fisihng plant which Kebba
Jobe is talking about is being funded by the IFA.  The total amount of money
to be invested in the project is about 1 million dollars and I believe the
loan is being granted to LyeFish.  Now, you tell me how this will
significantly improve the economic situation back home in the short run?  Do
we expect some type of domino effect in respect to fishing plants?

Also, though I do not really speak the economic lingo, I stand by statement
that economics is not an exact science in many respects.  Yes, you use
formulas and such, but economics very rarely get their predictions exactly
right.

It seems as if some students of economics see this from a strictly
neo-classical interpretation.  This is understandable butI do not see it in
the same way.  I believe the way this venture is carried out deserves to be
looked at very carefully by our people.  I hope the opposition pays close
attention to the proposals surrounding this idea.

If all the possible problems can be dealt with and addressed effectively,
then I am all for it.


Regards,

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