To Nuke or not to Nuke? That is the question
 
by William Bowles ? Friday, 2 March, 2007  
   
?All options are on the table? president Bush

For well over a year now pundits on both the left and the right have 
been telling us that the US/Israel Axis is about to bomb/invade Iran; 
those on the right say it with glee and on the left with understandable 
fear of the consequences, not only for the unfortunate Iranian people 
but for the entire planet.

But just like ?peak oil?, Der Tag keeps on getting pushed forward. Now 
why it?s correct to make people aware of what kind of aggressive, war-
mongering government we have ensconced in Washington DC, it is also 
incumbent upon us to try and analyse the strategies of the imperialists 
and to try and assess their effectiveness and realisability. So is an 
attack on Iran immanent?

What are the options open to the US? What would they stand to gain 
from ?taking out? Iran? Most importantly, is the US able to extend its 
wars of acquisition Eastward? In other words does it possess both the 
military and political power to invade Iran? And what of the 
consequences?

On the one hand it could be argued that the US is not planning an 
actual invasion, it?s primary objective would be to reduce Iran to a 
pile of radioactive rubble, or at least its nuclear facilities, 
something only a combined nuclear, ?conventional? attack could achieve 
and it?s a strategy fraught with all manner of unknowns, not the least 
of which would be the reaction of countries such as Russia and China 
which have close economic and political ties to Iran.

The first problem with this scenario is that radiation doesn?t 
recognise national boundaries, a nuclear attack would inevitably lead 
to the ultimate in ?blowbacks? only this time, literally. Even if a 
?tactical? nuclear strike is contemplated (is there such an animal?), 
the radiation released from both US weapons and Iran?s nuclear 
facilities would in all likelyhood make much of the region 
uninhabitable, including most probably Israel. Talk of ?tactical? 
nuclear weapons obscures the real nature of nuclear weapons? 
indiscriminate effects. The results just don?t bear thinking about.

A ?conventional surgical strike?: assuming Israel?s involvement it 
would almost inevitably lead to Iranian retaliation and Israel being a 
very small country both economically and physically, unless the war was 
of extremely short duration, it would in all likelyhood lead to severe 
damage if not destruction, obviously not a scenario that either the US 
or Israel would approve of. And any retaliatory attack on Israel would 
inevitably involve the US in a regional war which could quickly spiral 
out of control.

Talk of a ?Tonkin Gulf? type provocation has been bandied about as the 
trigger for such a scenario and indeed, the propaganda emanating from 
Washington about Iranian weapons alleging the cause of the deaths of 
170 US servicemen in Iraq would appear to support this. However, unlike 
the WMD scenario that led to the invasion of Iraq, such claims have 
been met with a great degree of scepticism even in the mainstream 
media. If the intention was to justify a replay of the events leading 
up to the invasion of Iraq, so far it has not had the desired effect.

Are US/Israeli threats a gigantic and extremely dangerous bluff? Let?s 
imagine one possible outcome: Iran capitulates and agrees to stop 
enriching uranium, but once Iran?s ?nuclear threat? is removed, what 
does the US do next? Regime change is the stated objective of the US, 
thus abandoning its ?nuclear ambitions? as the West describes it, would 
not satisfy the US. This would leave the US in the position of either 
accepting the existing status quo or of mounting a follow-up invasion 
and occupation or perhaps instigating some kind of coup d?etat. Either 
way, it would inevitably drag the US into a wider regional war, one it 
can ill afford at the present time.

Iran would still possess nuclear facilities and a large military 
capacity including medium and long range missiles as well as its 
awesome Russian supersonic cruise missiles, which if deployed could do 
some serious damage to the two US fleets (soon to be three) stationed 
in the region. Again, short of a total nuclear blitzkrieg, the US would 
have no option other than to invade and occupy Iran, something it is 
not in a position to do. It?s already fighting wars on two fronts and 
one assumes they?ve read their Clausewitz.

Then there is the US military high command who according to some 
reports don?t appear to be too keen on the idea and for obvious 
reasons. Already overstretched, attacking Iran doesn?t make much 
military sense given its other commitments and involvements.

In addition, there are serious divisions emerging within the ruling US 
political class between the so-called neo-cons and what are dubbed the 
?realists?, led, it appears, by Zbegniew Brezinski who is reported as 
saying that the invasion of Iraq was

?a historic, strategic, and moral calamity ? driven by Manichean 
impulses and imperial hubris.?

The problem with this approach is that ?imperial hubris? as a basis 
for a consistent US strategic foreign policy that stretches back over 
half-a-century is not borne out by the facts. Far from being a failure, 
the invasion of Iraq has consumed vast amounts of surplus capital and 
has led to staggering profits not only for the military industry but 
also for Big Oil.

The destruction of Iraq has removed one major obstacle to Israel?s 
objectives of a ?final solution? to the Palestinian problem. Yet even 
here, Israel is no closer to realising its objectives of the creation 
of a Greater Israel. If anything, Israel?s destruction of Lebanon and 
threats of ?taking out? Syria have had the opposite effect. Israel now 
finds itself more isolated than at any period since its creation in 
1948 (not that this has helped the besieged Palestinian people).

Israel?s role
The primary objective of the attack on Lebanon was to divert attention 
away from Israel?s onslaught on the Palestininan people which also 
coincided with the objective of diverting attention away from the 
situation in Iraq. All the evidence points to the fact that Israel?s 
attack on Lebanon was planned and sanctioned in Washington, not Tel 
Aviv.

But okay, let?s assume fot the sake of argument that the US is run by 
a clique of fanatical madmen intent on unleashing nuclear conflagration 
in order to fulfill its ?End Days? fantasy. Is it likely that the more 
sober-minded members of the US business and political elite, the 
?realists?, will allow such a scenario to unfold?

The problem with those who advocate the view that an invasion/attack 
on Iran is immanent is that it is based on the assumption that US 
policy is largely dictated by Israel and its gung ho supporters within 
the Bush administration.

Here?s what one writer has to say on the subject. Quoting an article 
in the Guardian,

?If there were doubts as to the motives behind the Iraq war, there 
should be none when it comes to Iran. According to the Guardian, ?Neo-
conservatives, particularly at the Washington-based American Enterprise 
Institute, are urging Mr Bush to open a new front against Iran. So too 
is the vice-president, Dick Cheney ? US preparations for an air strike 
against Iran are at an advanced stage ? the present military build-up 
in the Gulf would allow the US to mount an attack by the spring.?? ? 
?Anyone Can Go To Baghdad; Real Men Go To Tehran?, Muhammad Idrees 
Ahmad. Tuesday, 27 February 2007 

The major players behind this objective are all Zionists, closely 
allied to JINSA, AIPAC and other like-minded organisations. Now whilst 
there is no doubt that there are people close to Bush who are fanatical 
supporters of the Zionist state, it is important not to let the 
fundamental economic realities out of sight and to clearly separate 
public pronouncements from the real objectives of US capital which 
remain the same, namely maintaining US control of the global economy 
and especially the Middle East. Keeping the pot boiling has long been 
US strategy in the region. Self-interest always comes first.

If we can draw any conclusions from the situation in the Middle East 
it?s that the US has continued to employ the tried and tested method of 
divide and rule, and in so doing, maintain what is effectively a state 
of chaos, for regardless of the ?failure? of the Iraq adventure, unless 
a unified opposition is created, the US will maintain its foothold 
there. Why else build its largest foreign military base in the world in 
Iraq?

The US may well have miscalculated that an effective puppet government 
would remove the need for a countrywide military occupation and now 
tries to Balkanise the country instead. Whether this tactic will 
succeed depends on the degree to which the resistance can unify in its 
opposition to the occupation which in turn results in the US being 
physically driven from the country.

The ?failure? in Iraq is a failure only insofar as the US has failed 
to maintain domestic support for the occupation, mainly due to the 
large number of US casualties (Iraqi deaths don?t figure in the 
equation at all).

And whilst oil is not the only concern, it remains the major concern, 
for without oil it cannot maintain its vast military force. It should 
surely be obvious that oil and the military go hand-in-hand (the US 
military machine is the single largest consumer of oil in the world), 
and in turn, US military force is used to enforce its economic 
dominance either through its actual use or the threat of its use.

Thus when assessing the likelyhood of a US, or US/Israeli strike on 
Iran, I maintain that the Israeli lobby is not a significant factor, 
Israel plays the role of ?cat amongst the pidgeons? in maintaining 
chaos in the Middle East with Israel being used as a local Rottweiler, 
with the US constantly threatening to let it off the leash aka Lebanon.

We need to ask ourselves what would the US gain from attacking Iran 
given that an occupation is not a practical objective? Protecting 
Israel? Iran obviously has no intentions of attacking Israel in spite 
of all its (alleged) bellicose statements. To do so would be suicidal. 
Furthermore, destroying Iran would be counter-productive for Big Oil, 
as it would in all likelyhood put Iranian oil off limits for the 
forseeable future.

It can be argued that as the US doesn?t directly buy Iranian oil, an 
attack would deny it to the US?s major competitor, China. Could this be 
the basis for an attack on Iran? The major problem with this 
proposition is that China is the single largest repository of US 
dollars outside the US as well as being a major location of US foreign 
investment, attempting to destabilise the Chinese economy by denying it 
access to Iranian oil would seem to be counter-productive.

Curbing Iranian support for Hamas and Hizbollah? Hamas and Hizbollah 
may well be an irritant to Israel but neither pose a real threat to 
either the US or even to Israel, only united regional opposition can 
seriously challenge US/Israeli plans, a scenario that is unfortunately 
not currently realisable.

Thus whilst I do not rule out the possibility of some kind of limited 
military strike on Iran at some point in the future, I still maintain, 
just as I did a year ago, that the current conditions simply do not 
warrant a full scale assault. Furthermore, a ?surgical strike? on Iran?
s nuclear facilities is fraught with all manner of uncertainties. 
Comparisons are made with Israel?s attack on Iraq?s nuclear plant in 
the 1980s but is this a valid comparison? Iran is not Iraq, neither is 
Iran in a de facto state of war with Israel as Iraq was and in fact, 
Iran?s relationship to Israel is both murky and contradictory as the 
Iran-Contra events revealed.

There is only one possible scenario that could form the basis for an 
attack and that?s an engineered provocation but the idea has already 
been ?floated? through leaks to the media and the response has not been 
positive. It is a classic case of history repeating itself, the second 
time as farce.

There is no doubt that regime change in Iran is the primary US 
objective, a regime which would be compliant to the US just as the 
puppet government of Iraq is. But would a military assault on Iran 
achieve this end? I seriously doubt it, if anything it would reinforce 
the position of the conservative forces currently in power.

I contend that the current US strategy is proving unworkable and it is 
the main reason for the ?realists? popping out of the woodwork just as 
it is the major reason why the US is ratcheting up tensions as well as 
offering to engage in talks with Iran over Iraq, in the hope that one 
or the other of these strategies will work. 

?? referring to India?s changing attitude towards non-proliferation, 
?[t]he best illustration of this is the two votes India cast against 
Iran at the IAEA. I am the first person to admit that the votes were 
coerced [by the US].?? ? Stephen G. Rademaker, former Assistant 
Secretary for Non-proliferation and International Security at the U.S. 
State Department. ?Evidence of US coercion of IAEA members against Iran 
revealed?.

The US and/or Israel will only risk an attack on Iran if they think 
firstly that it will achieve their aims and secondly if they think they 
can get away with it, which is why it?s vitally important to expose US 
objectives and especially the special role that Israel plays in US 
strategy in the region but to argue that US strategy is determined by 
Israel is a complete misreading of the relationship between the two 
countries.

So, will there be a ?Spring offensive? against Iran as some, including 
even some mainstream media reports, allege? An unprovoked attack on 
Iran would undoubtedly further isolate the US from the world community, 
further complicate its relations with the EU, Russia and China. It 
would also further diminish the US?s influence over world affairs, 
leading to it being even more isolated than it already is. If I?m 
wrong, then the US is even more desperate and its leaders even more out 
of touch with reality than any of us realise.
 

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