> World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn
> scientists
> Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn
> that supplies will start to run out in four years' time
> By Daniel Howden
> Published: 14 June 2007
> Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's
> remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming
> sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.
> BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday,
> appears to show that the world still has enough "proven"
> reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates.
> The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once
> again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.
> However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion
> Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to
> peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline
> which will have massive consequences for the world economy and
> the way that we live our lives.
> According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will
> catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will
> begin to deplete known reserves.
> Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's
> quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands.
> The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it
> the quicker it's gone."
> Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a
> string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and
> ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the
> cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in
> 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract
> heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken
> from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he says.
> This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist
> Peter Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.
> "We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When
> peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption
> peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from
> production peaking."
> In recent years the once-considerable gap between demand and
> supply has narrowed. Last year that gap all but disappeared. The
> consequences of a shortfall would be immense. If consumption
> begins to exceed production by even the smallest amount, the
> price of oil could soar above $100 a barrel. A global recession
> would follow.
> Jeremy Leggert, like Dr Campbell, is a geologist-turned
> conservationist whose book Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the
> Global Energy Crisis brought "peak oil" theory to a wider
> audience. He compares industry and government reluctance to face
> up to the impending end of oil, to climate change denial.
> "It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to
> scientists warning about global warming," he says. "We were
> predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out.
> Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people
> to listen."
> In 1999, Britain's oil reserves in the North Sea peaked, but for
> two years after this became apparent, Mr Leggert claims, it was
> heresy for anyone in official circles to say so. "Not meeting
> demand is not an option. In fact, it is an act of treason," he says.
> One thing most oil analysts agree on is that depletion of oil
> fields follows a predictable bell curve. This has not changed
> since the Shell geologist M King Hubbert made a mathematical
> model in 1956 to predict what would happen to US petroleum
> production. The Hubbert Curveshows that at the beginning
> production from any oil field rises sharply, then reaches a
> plateau before falling into a terminal decline. His prediction
> that US production would peak in 1969 was ridiculed by those who
> claimed it could increase indefinitely. In the event it peaked
> in 1970 and has been in decline ever since.
> In the 1970s Chris Skrebowski was a long-term planner for BP.
> Today he edits the Petroleum Review and is one of a growing
> number of industry insiders converting to peak theory. "I was
> extremely sceptical to start with," he now admits. "We have
> enough capacity coming online for the next two-and-a-half years.
> After that the situation deteriorates."
> What no one, not even BP, disagrees with is that demand is
> surging. The rapid growth of China and India matched with the
> developed world's dependence on oil, mean that a lot more oil
> will have to come from somewhere. BP's review shows that world
> demand for oil has grown faster in the past five years than in
> the second half of the 1990s. Today we consume an average of 85
> million barrels daily. According to the most conservative
> estimates from the International Energy Agency that figure will
> rise to 113 million barrels by 2030.
> Two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie in the Middle East
> and increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases
> in supply from this region.
> BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of
> world oil reserves but as Dr Campbell points out it is only a
> summary of highly political estimates supplied by governments
> and oil companies.
> As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company
> I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."
> A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported
> reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major
> concerns. In Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents
> suggesting the country's real reserves were half of what was
> reported. Iran this year became the first major oil producer to
> introduce oil rationing - an indication of the administration's
> view on which way oil reserves are going.
> Sadad al-Huseini knows more about Saudi Arabia's oil reserves
> than perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the
> kingdom's oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how
> much Saudi production can be increased is sobering. "The problem
> is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5
> million in 2004. You're leaping by two to three million [barrels
> a day]" each year, he told The New York Times. "That's like a
> whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can't be done
> indefinitely."The importance of black gold
> * A reduction of as little as 10 to 15 per cent could cripple
> oil-dependent industrial economies. In the 1970s, a reduction of
> just 5 per cent caused a price increase of more than 400 per cent.
> * Most farming equipment is either built in oil-powered plants
> or uses diesel as fuel. Nearly all pesticides and many
> fertilisers are made from oil.
> * Most plastics, used in everything from computers and mobile
> phones to pipelines, clothing and carpets, are made from oil-
> based substances.
> * Manufacturing requires huge amounts of fossil fuels. The
> construction of a single car in the US requires, on average, at
> least 20 barrels of oil.
> * Most renewable energy equipment requires large amounts of oil
> to produce.
> * Metal production - particularly aluminium - cosmetics, hair
> dye, ink and many common painkillers all rely on oil.
> Alternative sources of power
> Coal
> There are still an estimated 909 billion tonnes of proven coal
> reserves worldwide, enough to last at least 155 years. But coal
> is a fossil fuel and a dirty energy source that will only add to
> global warming.
> Natural gas
> The natural gas fields in Siberia, Alaska and the Middle East
> should last 20 years longer than the world's oil reserves but,
> although cleaner than oil, natural gas is still a fossil fuel
> that emits pollutants. It is also expensive to extract and
> transport as it has to be liquefied.
> Hydrogen fuel cells
> Hydrogen fuel cells would provide us with a permanent,
> renewable, clean energy source as they combine hydrogen and
> oxygen chemically to produce electricity, water and heat. The
> difficulty, however, is that there isn't enough hydrogen to go
> round and the few clean ways of producing it are expensive.
> Biofuels
> Ethanol from corn and maize has become a popular alternative to
> oil. However, studies suggest ethanol production has a negative
> effect on energy investment and the environment because of the
> space required to grow what we need.
> Renewable energy
> Oil-dependent nations are turning to renewable energy sources
> such as hydroelectric, solar and wind power to provide an
> alternative to oil but the likelihood of renewable sources
> providing enough energy is slim.
> Nuclear
> Fears of the world's uranium supply running out have been
> allayed by improved reactors and the possibility of using
> thorium as a nuclear fuel. But an increase in the number of
> reactors across the globe would increase the chance of a
> disaster and the risk of dangerous substances getting into the
> hands of terrorist
>
>
>
>
> (c) 2007 Independent News and Media Limited
>
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>


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