Sunday, June 06, 1999
Towards The Next Millennium:
Who Leads Africa?
Nelson Mandela steps down next week as South Africa's
president. Who steps into his shoes as Africa's leading
statesman between Olusegun Obasanjo and Thambo Mbeki?
By Alabi Williams and Kayode Ogunbunmi
STATESMANSHIP is a big responsibility. It demands fair-mindedness,
wisdom and a durable ability to lead, either provincially, continentally
or globally.
In Africa, the history of slavery, colonialism, and poverty exerts
managerial pressure on African leaders, so much that over the years,
generations of statesmen have emerged on the continent. The enormity of
Africa's problems makes it imperative for genuine leaders to canvass
continental solutions; to ensure that Africa is united first and foremost
as a people who share similar fate and who can only liberate the continent
by coming together.
Pan-Africanism threw up statesmen who canvassed identifiable ideals and
whose aspirations became representative of the entire continent.
Kwame Nkrumah was the foremost exponent of African unity and
Pan-Africanism. For him, it was only an enlarged "continental
government" that would be sufficient in handling Africa's problem. It was
informed by Nkrumah's intense dislike for foreign domination. He said in
April 1958 that "we have for too long been the victims of foreign
domination. For too long we have had no say in the management of our
own affairs or in deciding our own destiny. Now times have changed, and
today we are the masters of our own fate". He was addressing a conference
of independent African states which he convened in Accra, Ghana
consisting of Egypt, Ethiopia, Liberia, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia.
Jomo Kenyatta, the late Kenyan president was equally committed to the
war against colonialism and imperialism on the African continent. He
helped in the liberation of Kenya, an experience that is shared across
Africa. He is a symbol of strength, courage and the defiance, the same
attributes that helped in liberating Africa from colonialism.
Emperor Haile Selassie is another statesman whose influence helped in
liberating African countries in the 1960s.` He visited many African
countries where he encouraged Pan-Africanism and participated in
successful mediation in interstate disputes and helped pave the way for
continental unity.
After independence was won in most parts Africa, the Organisation of
African Unity was formed in May 1963 to serve as the rallying point for
the sustenance of Africa's independence. But the zeal and Pan-Africanist
verve which characterised the pre-independence era had given way to
intra-country activities. Each country was now enmeshed in its own
political problems, while the larger continental problems worsened.
Poverty was fast on the heels of the independent African States while
the frontline countries became hotbeds of political instability.
Nkrumah himself was overthrown in Ghana. In Kenya, Jomo had turned
himself into a one-party tin-god and had become a totalitarian leader
at his death.
Other Pan-Africanist figures across the continent were pushed to the
background as ambitious soldiers seized the reins from them.
By early 70s, most of Africa's statesmen had become history while the
few who were alive had become provincial puppets of imperialists.
But the evils of apartheid in South Africa provided another opportunity
for African countries to come together for the fight against the evil
regime. The immediate responsibility was upon the frontline states, the
immediate neighbours of South Africa which played host to fleeing
anti-apartheid activists. Kenneth Kaunda, Julius Nyerere, Samora Machel and
others became prominent in their resolve to stamp out apartheid from
South Africa. But they had to contend also with their own internal
political and economic problems. They all had the will to fight
apartheid, but did not always possess the means.
It was at this time that Nigeria, encouraged by her large population and
earnings from crude oil exports yielded herself to the anti-apartheid
struggle in a very handsome way. Money and materials were invested to
help in the liberation struggle.
Inspite of the efforts by the Murtala/Obasanjo government in helping to put
Nigeria on the global map, the leaders themselves could not answer to the
status of statesmen.
Since the Second Republic, there has been a multiplication of domestic
problems in Nigeria, to the extent that neither the country nor its leaders
could lay claim to a leadership position in Africa. In fact, Nigeria became
increasingly referred to as the "sleeping giant," of Africa.
It was General Ibrahim Babangida who made a desperate attempt to
shore-up Nigeria's image in the ECOMOG adventure. The success story in
Liberia and the current Sierra-Leonean initiative have to a great extent
won for Nigeria all the ratings it had lost in the past.
But still, the interregnum that existed between the period of the demise
of the Second Republic and now is the worse so far in terms of Nigeria's
foreign relations. Gen. Sani Abacha was particularly combative in his
foreign relations. Nigeria earned its suspension from the Commonwealth
and sanctions from the European Union and the United States for its
horrible domestic policies.
Professor Akinjide Osuntokun, Nigeria's former Ambassador to Germany
said last week that foreign relations of any country is dependent on how
much domestic support a country's government can garner. He said, "it is
not a one-man show but a collective thing."
Post-independence leadership in Africa has lost the Pan-Africanist touch,
basically due to the fact that the leaders do not act in the interest of
their people. Those who did can count on a wide acceptance across the
continent. For instance, Julius Nyerere ran a people-oriented government
in Tanzania until his retirement. Mwalimu, as he is fondly called, has
demonstrated qualities that have distinguished him as an African statesman.
He was a prominent activist at the Organisation of African Unity where he
helped to build a non-aligned image for Africa in global politics.
Kenneth Kaunda had an opportunity to emerge as an African Leader, he
spent a lot of time and resources building a one-party machinery at home.
When his grip on Zambia was loosened in 1992, the new Zambian
leadership decided to strip him of all statesmanship.
The return of Olusegun Obasanjo as Nigeria's president promised to offer
Africa the leadership it has always yearned for. According to Professor
Osuntokun, "in terms of being highly respected, possessing international
stature and experience, Obasanjo will be a legitimate leader. He has ruled
before, he has suffered and he has all the international support and I
hope every Nigerian will support him."
The former Ambassador also recalls that without Obasanjo's frontline
leadership in the 1970s, the situation in Southern Rhodesia and the
liberation of South Africa may have turned out differently.
Surely, on the international scale, Obasanjo is certainly not a feather
weight. He served with the United Nations Peace-keeping Force in the
Congo from 1960 to 1961. Perhaps, that was the reality which exposed him
to international duties and responsibilities. When he retired from the Army
in 1979 and handed over to a civilian government, Obasanjo yielded himself
to full international service. Between 1983 and 1989, he was member,
Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues (Palme
Commission); between 1981 and 1987, he was member of the UNESCO
Commission for Peace in the mind of men; in 1983, he was a member of the
WHO Committee of Experts on the Effects of Nuclear Weapons; from 1985
to 1986, he was co-chairman of the Commonwealth Eminent Persons
Group on South Africa. In 1986, he was a member of the United Nations
Panel of Eminent Persons on the Relationship between Disarmament and
Development; in 1988, he was chairman, Hearings on Namibia of the World
Council of Churches, Washington; in 1985, he was chairman of a
High-Level Expert Group on Military Expenditures by Developing
Countries; between 1987 and 1993, he was director, Better World Society,
Washington DC; he was member, Board of Directors, University for Peace,
Costa Rica; 1988 - 1999, member, Board of Trustees, Ford Foundation; he
was founding chairman of Africa Leadership Forum and chairman, Board
of Directors, Africa Leadership Foundation, Inc. New York; between 1991
and 1993, he was publisher, Africa Forum (quarterly); in 1989, he was
member, Independent Group on Financial Flows to Developing Countries
(Schmidt Commission); from 1989 to 1990, he was a member of the UN
Secretary-General's Group on African Commodities Questions; between
1989 and 1999, he was special advisor to the International Institute for
Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan and chairman, Future Actions Committee,
Management of Science and Technology for Development in Africa
(MANSCI); since 1989, he had been member, Advisory Council,
Parliamentarians Global Action; Member Advisory Council, The Institute
for Global Ethics; since 1991, member, board of Trustees,
African-American Institute; Member, Eminent Persons Council
International Negotiations Network, The Carter Centre of Emory
University, Atlanta; since 1991, he is member, Council of Advisors, The
World Food Prize, Des Moines, IOWA; since 1992, he is member, Advisory
Group on United Nations Financing (Ford Foundation); from 1993 to
1995, Obasanjo was member, United Nations Secretary-General's Advisory
Panel on Africa; from 1994 to 1995, he was a member of the Advisory
Panel for UN World Conference on Women and Development; between
1994 and now, he is member of the Advisory Council, Carnegie Commission
on Preventing Deadly Conflict and since 1995, he is UNDP Human
Development Ambassador and chairman, Advisory Council, Transparency
International.
President Obasanjo has been involved in number of international mediation
efforts in Namibia, Angola, Sudan, South Africa, Mozambique and Burundi.
In 1988, at the instance of the Commonwealth Heads of State and
Government, he carried out an assessment of the security needs of the
Frontline States. In 1992, he was invited as an official observer of the
elections in Angola. In 1994, he served as an official observer of the
elections in Mozambique and in 1991, he offered himself as a candidate for
the post of the secretary-general of the United Nations.
With this background, Africa surely has an asset in the person of president
Obasanjo.
President Nelson Mandela had always presented to the world a charming
aura. He had been held in thrall by millions of people around the world
since his days at the notorious South African prison of Robben Island. He
was then the undisputed most famous prisoner in the world.
For the white supremacist rulers of South Africa, the continent's most
developed economy (and their backers around the world) Mandela
represented both the enemy and the saviour. He was the symbol of the
revolt against white domination. He was also the most potent instrument for
ensuring the country did not explode into bloody, ungovernable parts.
So when the high priests of apartheid saw the reality of the need to reform
and involve their black countrymen in governance, they had none but
Mandela to turn to.
Incidentally, one of the teams mandated to oversee the transition was
headed by General Obasanjo. As co-chairman of the Eminent Persons
Group set up by the Commonwealth of Nations, Obasanjo led a team of
distinguished men to meet Mandela in jail.
Mandela came out of jail to lead a rejuvenated South Africa, and won a
Nobel Peace Prize to the bargain; one of a select few African leaders such
as Bishop Desmond Tutu and Fredrik de Klerk, both of South Africa, who
won the respectable award.
Mandela is a toast of the international community, respected and feted by
leaders as diverse as Bill Clinton of United States; Jiang Zemin of China,
Tony Blair of Britain; Fidel Castro of Cuba and Mohammar Gaddafi of
Libya.
Buoyed by a casual but potent admixture of natural charm, intelligence,
humility and age, Mandela in the past five years or more succeeded in
winning the hearts of both the rulers and the ruled in most countries of
the world. He became the most influential leader in the world, sought
after and listened to by all parties.
It was only fitting that he became the voice of Africa, though the
daunting tasks facing him in South Africa did not allow him to fulfil
this role fully. He was buffeted by domestic strife; an economy under
stress; the need for reconciliation and an expectant black populace.
His decision to delegate the responsibility of governing South Africa
to his deputy, Thabo Mbeki, definitely freed him to devote more time to
statesmanship.
He needed to sell the new South Africa to the world, which he did quite
well with Mbeki on his heels as he sold him to world leaders. He also
tried to grapple with the many intercenine wars in the continent. Zaire,
Comoros, Sudan, Somalia and Lesotho were on the boil, same as Liberia
and Sierra Leone.
He did not interfere in the last two, seeing them as within Nigeria's
sphere of influence but he devoted his energy to the other crisis.
Mandela's unassailable pre-eminence on the continent was further aided
by the whittling of Nigeria's influence. Ruled by successive military
officers with disastrous results, Nigeria had lost the respect and
influence it had in the continent. By the end of last month when a
democratic government was inaugurated, Nigeria had actually lost
membership of several international organisations and had become
unwanted in many others.
Even in the West African sub-continent, leaders like Jerry Rawlings of
Ghana and Gnassingbe Eyadema of Togo had more moral clout than
Nigerian leaders.
Elsewhere, President Yoweri Museveni held sway on the continent. One of
President Mandela's least successful undertakings, ironically, was the
attempt to secure the release of General Obasanjo from jail. Unlike the
apartheid government of South Africa which eventually yielded to pressure
to release Mandela, General Abacha refused Mandela's plea to release
Obasanjo.
Earlier, Abacha had refused Mandela's entreaties and those of other world
leaders, to spare the lives of Ken Saro Wiwa and other Ogonis his
government convicted for murder. Mandela successfully held off demands
by the Clinton administration for it to suspend relations with Cuba and
Libya. Eventually, he succeeded in helping to resolve the imbroglio
between Libya and the West over the Lockerbie air disaster. In a moving
affirmation of Mandela's worth as an international statesman, Colonel
Gadaffi, confessed: "I would place the life of my son in President
Mandela's hand and go to sleep."
By next week President Mandela will retire. His retirement will likely
create a power vacuum on the African continent. Though at an informal,
unofficial capacity he could still perform the role of a trouble-shooter
on the continent, there is the need for a serving head of state to fill
the vacuum.
During the inauguration of General Obasanjo penultimate Saturday,
Mandela was on hand to provide support. Many read their embrace as an
exchange of baton between the incoming Obasanjo and the outgoing
Mandela.
It might not be as easy as that. For Mandela is leaving behind a political
son, Mr. Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki, who was last week elected President of
South Africa and had been Mandela's deputy for the past five years. As a
potential leader of the African continent, Mbeki has a lot going for him
too.
A graduate of the Economics department of Sussex University, England and
a leading member of the African National Congress Intelligentsia for the
past 49 years, Mbeki is philosophically grounded. He preaches a theory of
African Renaissance which he forsees South Africa leading.
Described as 'a suave dealer,' Mbeki has a reputation for being a charming
and entertaining speaker. He is also seen as a 'ladies man.' He has a
well-developed diplomatic skill-honed during his days as leader of ANC
International Relations Department.
For the past three years, Mbeki had run the government of South Africa
and he is respected as a punctilious and workholic person. He works
tirelessly and has recorded a number of successes to show for this. He is
respected by both White and Black South Africans and is seen as a man who
can deliver on his promises.
On the international scene, he has won a number of accolades too. His
foreign trips with Mandela have paid off tremendously and he is a friend
of the US vice-president Al Gore. Incidentially, Gore is seen as the man
likely to replace President Clinton in the White House.
One thing though, Mbeki is rated more as a competent technocrat rather
than a charismatic leader. Even in South Africa, he is seen as a remote and
little-known man. At the best of time, performing after a Mandela act
should be an herculean task. Mbeki would have much to do to step into
the Mandiba's shoes.
He was intuitive enough to realise this and he set out to try his best.
During the campaign for the last elections, he vowed to get more votes
than Mandela did in 1994. Though he often depended on the populist appeal
of Winnie Mandela during the campaign. Mbeki won well. He scored more
votes than Mandela, and gained a stronger hand to push his policies
through. Like Obasanjo also has done in Nigeria.
Mbeki shares another trait with Obasanjo, he could be autocratic. The
result of both being ex-fighters. According to the International
Institute for Strategic Studies, London, "Mbeki will run the South
African Government in a manner which resembles that of other African
leaders. That is, he will 'personalize' it.
A 'personalised' government might not be too bad for South Africa. He is
likely going to do away with the 'rainbow country' ideal of Mandela for a
more realistic empowerment drive for black South Africans. His goal, he
says, is to put an end to South Africa as two countries of rich whites and
poor blacks.
Mbeki promised to have better capacity in the presidency for co-ordination,
policy intervention and ensuring that things agreed on are actually done.
Mbeki is going to ensure his presidency takes off on a grand note. He is not
going to leave anybody wondering who is occupying the office. An
invitation has been sent to 130 world leaders to attend the event for which
£5 million had been budgeted.
South Africa still remains the most developed economy on the continent and
its leader is a invariably a leader on the continent. One of the positive
things
Mbeki will do for Africa is to ensure that the democratic culture in South
Africa is sustained. The fate of democracy in the country, and how its
future will look like, rests on Mbeki's shoulders.
At 56, Mbeki might not be too pre-occupied with the struggle for
pre-eminence on the continent. He might even give President Robert
Mugabe of Zimbabwe some leeway in Southern Africa. Mbeki could afford
to devote much of this stupendous energy to South Africa. Afterall, he is
likely to remain head of a democratic South Africa for the next 10 years.
This is something Obasanjo, Mugabe, Museveni and others dare not hope
for.
- THE GUARDIAN --
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