Basil,

Thank you for a thought-provoking piece with very important but complex
issues and concepts.  In addition to the very relevant ideas supplied by
Mr. Jeng, particularly the regional economic integration issuues, I would
like to submit the following observations/comments with the hope that
eventually, with further contributions, the "big picture" may being to
emerge.

You will recall that in your raction to the AFP press article on the
Libreville summit, you welcomed the IMF's belated change of approach to
macro-economic management and poverty reduction in sub-saharan Africa; a
change forced on it by the continuous deterioration of living conditions in
the developing countries, despite s
uccessful implementation of Structural
Adjustment Programes (SAPs) over the years; in the case of The Gambia since
1986.

Why the failure, despite the huge associated costs (redundancies,
elimination of subsidies etc.)?

Apart from the inappropriate design problems, including the "onwership"
issue, the main reasons for the failure have been highlighted in your
piece:namely the rate of population growth and demographic-related issues,
mismanagement and inapprpriate set of economic policies.  There are
numerous other reasons as acknowledged in your piece.

Firstly, I would say in passing that the ownership of future programmes
henceforth rests squarely on our shoulders as Africans and as Gambians to
conceptualise, design, implement, monitor and subequently evaluate them
with the full participation of those whose livelihoods are inextricably
linked to the success or failure of econo
mic policy.

Secondly, population growth is one of the most daunting of problems facing
The Gambia.  In 1993, the rate was 4.2 percent; natural rate estimated at
2.9 percent and net migration at 1.5 percent.  Real GDP growth, meanwhile,
averaged only 1.5 percent. With population growth rate out-pacing economic
growth by 3:1, the picture is bleak indeed.  However,  Government's Revised
Population Policy of 1998 seeks to address the high rate of population
growth..  As for the net-migration component, which is a function of
economic prosperity (relative to our neighbours), regional stability and
historical ties, regional co-operation must be forstered to effectively
reduce the in-flow.

Thirdly, the role of the private sector must be brought to the fore.  The "
lack of infrastructure and capital", especially the latter, can, in my
view, be better provided by the private sector. The ADB
 is prepared to
assist The Gambia in its efforts to prepare some of the public enterprises
for privatisation.  I am aware that the word "privatisation" is highly
emotive and can generate highly charged debate. The Divestiture Workshop
held at the Kairaba Beach Hotel in June, 1999 is a testimony to this
observation. However, the outcome was positive in that recommendations were
made as to the way forward.

Finally, Basil, I have taken the liberty of adding to your wish list for
the The Gambia in the 21st century a commodity which seems to be in short
supplies these days: TOLERANCE.

Thank you, once again, for your invaluable contribution which can only move
Gambia forward on the socio-economic front.  I wish also to thank Mr. Musa
Jeng for bringing up the economic integration issue- an issue we have
discussed briefly and privately.


Sidi Sanneh

Sidi Sanneh

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