ICoast,sched
   Uncertainty over Ivory Coast transition after attack on junta head
   by Caspar Leighton

   ABIDJAN, Sept 19 (AFP) - An alleged assassination attempt this week on
Ivory Coast military leader General Robert Guei has cast further
uncertainty
over the country's return to civilian rule.
   Voters are set to choose their new president in elections slated for
October 22, a date which has already been deferred once by the military
regime
which seized power here last December.
   After Monday's attack on his residence, which left two guards dead and
has
led to a series of arrests, Guei reaffirmed the military regime's
commitment
to holding the elections, in which he himself is running.
   The attack has revealed deep divisions within the presidential guard
just
one month ahead of the elections, with tension already running high over
the
eligibility of popular opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara and
exacerbated
by the country's worsening financial situation.
   Some of those arrested were supporters of a staff sergeant believed to
be
close to Ouattara, who was Monday implicitly blamed for the attack by
Communications Minister Henri Sama.
   Earlier this month, ten members of the guard close to the same staff
sergeant -- Ibrahim Coulibaly -- were arrested, and six of them charged
with
threatening state security.
   Soldiers meanwhile have mutinied at least twice since the Christmas Eve
coup, complaining in the last incident in early July that they had received
no
financial compensation for having brought Guei to power.
   Government commissioner Captain Ange Kessi Kouame told AFP that some of
the
guards arrested -- 20 according to military sources -- had already been
involved in a series of unsuccessful coups.
   "Most of the suspects were already the object of investigation by the
military court concerning several other aborted coups that were not
revealed
to the press," Kessi said.
   "In very little time, three or four days, we will be able to wrap up the
the inquest," Kessi said.
   Communications Minister Sama has left little doubt as to whom he
believes
is behind this latest attack.
   He has denounced "masterminds hiding in the dark" who "had been
spreading
rumours about their arrest for a few days".
   On Friday hundreds of people gathered outside Ouattara's home in Abidjan
amid rumours that the opposition leader had been arrested.
   Guei however has been slower to point to any culprit for Monday's raid
on
his residence, saying he preferred to await the conclusion of the
investigation.
   If the volatility of the military establishment is casting doubt over
whether elections will go ahead as planned, Ivory Coast's crippling
financial
situation could also hinder the smooth running of the electoral process.
   When the electoral commission requested that the presidential election,
originally scheduled for September 17 be postponed, it cited organisational
problems.
   Voting materials were not ready, it said, voter registration had not
been
completed and there were budgetary problems.
   Ivory Coast's financial situation has got progressively worse after most
donors suspended support after the coup and many businesses reduced or
suspended operations.
   Another major donor, the French Development Agency (AFD) meanwhile
suspended funding to Ivory Coast last week, after the country failed to pay
its debts.
   The suspension of AFD funding will deprive Ivory Coast of another 150
million dollars of financial aid.
   The International Monetary Fund has expressed concern over the
accumulation
of payment arrears, underlining "the necessity of normalising relations
with
creditors as soon as possible".
   The IMF also "noted that financial and economic conditions had worsened
considerably in Ivory Coast in a climate of social and political tension".
   Tensions have meanwhile been mounting over the question of the
eligibility
of the 19 presidential candidates, and in particular, the eligibility of
Ouattara.
   The junta in July passed a referendum tightening eligibility
requirements
for candidates, saying that both parents of candidates had to be Ivorian
and
no candidate should have availed himself of any other nationality.
   The move was seen as a direct attack on Ouattara, whose opponents claim
he
has Burkina parentage and has used Burkina nationality throughout his
working
career.
   The Constitutional Court is due to rule on the eligibility issue on
October
7, two weeks before the election, when tension is expected to reach its
peak.
   If Guei is seen to bar Ouattara from standing, it is impossible to
predict
how Ouattara's supporters outside and within the military will react.

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