Accounts attributed to Presidents Wade of Senegal and Kumba Yalla of Bissau
in wire service dispatches today has left me a tad bit worried about the
specter of instability looming over our subregion. President Wade was quoted
as saying he was going to advance the idea of stationing United Nations
troops at the Bissau -Senegalese border in a bid to stem cross border
infiltration by rebels whom the Senegalese have long asserted operated from
bases in Bissau. President Kumba Yalla promptly issued a terse rejection of
the idea of having UN troops apparently because that would constitute a tacit
admittance that the rebels infact do operate from their territory. Reuters
also quoted President Wade as telling the weekly magazine Juenne Afrique that
he intends to ask President Chirac of France for significant armaments when
they meet on Wednesday. He cited what he called neighboring states who were
permitting Ukranian mercenaries to work with rebels and also working on
securing MIG aircraft and other armaments that are offensive in nature. He
said he could  not allow a smaller neighbor to tilt the military balance in a
manner that would threaten Senegal.
    Clearly this not some mere saber rattling from third rate dictators.
Rather it seems to me to be a case of two leaders who don't seem to able to
get to an amicable start in their bid to settle a difficult problem. My guess
is after his initial enthusiasm on the prospect being able to sit with an
elected President of Guinea Bissau who seem to be real democrat, President
Wade quickly realized that Kumba Yalla is not really in charge in Guinea
Bissau . He is weak and has no influence on the security apparatus in Guinea
Bissau who would have  to address the fundamental issue at the heart of the
troubled relationship between the two countries. Even if President Yalla
agreed that the rebels need to be reigned in, it is doubtful he can  deliver
on any such promise. The guy couldn't even fire the head of the navy a month
after ordering him dismissed. Having fought Ansumana Mane and his junta to a
bloody stalemate, the Senegalese security establishment are convinced he is
part of the problem and it is unlikely they would view him as part of any
solution. Therein lies the conundrum for Senegal. What do you do with a
mosaic of a rebel force comprised of  small bands waging a war of attrition
using a porous border fleeing back and forth to neighbor that is
governmentally in flux with a nominal head of state and a defacto President.?
Not much. It is sadly an expensive no win situation. The sustained pain that
comes with fighting the kind grinding war Senegal is fighting might lead them
into thinking they may as well take the fighting to where it is emanating.
The consequences for such an action is very chilling. I am not optimistic
about the current trends, but it my sincere hope people on all sides of the
issue would realize that we are all one and the same in that part of the
world and that in the end there really are no winners in  a fratricidal war.

Karamba

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