Retiring Mugabe

By Aryeh Neier

At least for purposes of public consumption, southern Africa’s political 
leaders continue to stand by Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, despite his 
country’s ever-deepening economic crisis, which is directly attributable to 
his tyrannical rule. Indeed, years of economic mismanagement have produced 
an unemployment rate of  80%, with annual inflation nearing 5,000%.

Though Zimbabwe was once known as “the breadbasket of Africa,” many of its 
citizens now go hungry and depend on international food donations for 
survival. About 3,000 people flee the country every day, often risking their 
lives when crossing the crocodile-infested Limpopo River – celebrated in 
Kipling’s tale of “How the Elephant Got Its Trunk” – and scaling a border 
fence to enter South Africa.

By now, emigration is more than three million, about a quarter of the 
population. Yet when Mugabe was introduced at the most recent meeting of the 
Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, 
his fellow heads of state heartily applauded him.

There are reports that, behind the scenes, things are different. South 
African President Thabo Mbeki is said to be trying to negotiate a way for 
Mugabe to leave the scene. Yet there have been similar rumors before, and it 
is difficult to know whether Mbeki and the other southern African leaders 
are finally willing to tell Mugabe that he must go. Up to now, paying their 
respects to him as a revolutionary leader, and catering to his megalomania, 
has been more important to them than alleviating the suffering of Zimbabwe’s 
people.

The obvious way for Mugabe to leave at age 83 would be to announce that he 
has changed his mind about running again in the presidential election now 
scheduled for March 2008. Of course, should Mugabe stand down, a fair 
election next March probably would not be possible. The political opposition 
would have little capacity to organize an effective campaign in an 
environment in which Mugabe has shut down independent media, rewritten 
electoral rules, and used the police to pummel – literally – his 
adversaries.

So a period of transition would be required for a proper election to be 
organized under the auspices of the SADC, with support from the African 
Union, Europe, and the United States, in order to get a fair result and 
launch a recovery process. Yet, given the brief period that remains until 
the scheduled election, an announcement is required soon if a fair result is 
to be achieved and a recovery process launched to halt the country’s slide 
into chaos.

A big factor in any timetable for Zimbabwe’s rescue is Thabo Mbeki’s tenure. 
He has just over a year-and-a-half to go to complete his second and final 
five-year term as South Africa’s president. In certain respects, he has been 
a success. Under his leadership, South African’s multiracial democracy has 
been consolidated, and, in dramatic contrast to neighboring Zimbabwe, its 
economy is flourishing.

Yet Mbeki’s achievement is severely marred by two failures. Domestically, 
his poor performance in addressing South Africa’s HIV/AIDS epidemic will 
ensure that he is judged harshly. Internationally, his record is stained by 
his lack of leadership up to now in dealing with Zimbabwe.

Nevertheless, even at this late date, Mbeki has a chance to salvage a good 
part of his reputation by taking the lead in organizing a transition in 
Zimbabwe. But, given the amount of time a transition will take, he must act 
now.

Even when a transition does take place in Zimbabwe, the crisis will not be 
over. The country has been so devastated by the Mugabe regime that 
substantial international engagement will be required to put it back on its 
feet. For now, however, the SADC should, at long last, tell Mugabe that he 
must step aside, and it should take responsibility for managing an electoral 
process whose result Zimbabweans will recognize as fair, thereby providing 
the legitimacy needed for recovery to begin.

Aryeh Neier, the president of the Open Society Institute and a founder of 
Human Rights Watch, is the author most recently of Taking Liberties: Four 
Decades in the Struggle for Rights.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org

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