The Gambian economy continues to suffer for the low tourists turnover.

The Gambian economy remains vulnerable to international war on terrorism and
the turmoil in the Middle East. These global events are deteriorating an
already unsettle tourism and energy sectors of the economy. As the tourist
season ended in May 04, the benchmark of tourist arriving Gambia had
subsided more than 50 percent less from the high it touched on May 03. This
is serious and therefore we cannot relax. People might not believe it but
The Gambian economy is exquisitely sensitive to the tourism contribution.
Tourism in Gambia can caused a nationwide slump, it is capable of causing
mass unemployment, double-digit inflation, extraordinary political turmoil
and losses of economic welfare on a scale hitherto associated with draught.

How reassuring is this?  If businesses in the tourism industry operates
below minimum sustainable capacity than it would otherwise have been, and
stays there a while, let say three (3) months or longer, prices in general
will rise, output and incomes will be reduced, and unemployment will be
raised. This vicious combination of higher inflation, depreciating Dalasis
and lower growth stagflation, to recall the draught period of the 80s is the
worst scenario the Gambian economic policy maker can contemplate.  The
debate now is not about the outcomes of the tourism sector but dependability
of the Gambian economy on tourism regarding the future. The balance the
Gambians economy needs is to avoid the appearance of caving in to pressure
from European suppliers for lower price tourisms (Mass market tourism) in
one hand and deflecting measures aimed at economising on the tourism sector
that would trim longer-term incomes.

Three relating issues need to be addressed by Gambians and the tourism
Authorities.
Firstly, the surging demands on tourism related developments. Over the past
decade much of the private investment has been directed to tourism
infrastructural development, basically in the greater Banjul area. Lots of
new hotels and private lounges are being seen along the tourism development
areas. Tourist markets are now seen everywhere in the tourist areas. Demand
for energy is high as tourism related developments are growing strong. While
the supply to meet these demands is being held up by fear of international
terrorist and higher oil price. Oil might be temporary, however, but the end
to the war on international terrorism is still a distance long.

Second, micro-tourism economy distribution is a bottleneck in the Gambia.
After Brikama, fewer of the Gambian population harvest the benefits of
tourism. Capacity building in LRD and Upper River Division is not prioritise
when tourism is concern.

The finally issue is the risk of future interruptions in supply. This is
where the real danger resides. Tourists operators in the Gambia are
predominantly European with massive bargain power and the majority of
tourists arriving the Gambia are predominantly white, western and very few
American. If these white western and the very few American say no to the
Gambia as a tourist destiny because authorities disagreed with operators or
international terrorism escalates. Perhaps it is unlikely that this will
happen but a small risk of a very bad outcome is enough to justify a
substantial damage in the Gambia economy.

Why are Gambians in the Diaspora not targeted as potential tourists to the
Gambia? We are talking about more than a million Gambians and their
descendants. Today, The Gambian economy receives annually more than 40 % of
the disposable income of these Gambians abroad, an amount high if compare
with what tourism brings into the economy. Moreover targeting Gambian abroad
will have the effect to offset the low white western tourists turnover in
the Gambia. Thus, reduces some of the negative consequences the tourists
sectors is suffering from the dependency on western white tourists.

Pa Che

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