FEBRUARY 2000
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African
BUSINESS

SENEGAL
SPOTLIGHT
Senegal elections: Opposition take up battle stations

Senegal goes to the polls later this month (February) to elect the next
President. The incumbent, Abdou Diouf who has been in power for 19 years
will stand for his last term but the opposition has been gathering strength
to deny him victory this time around. Gerry O'Kane delves into the
intricacies of Senegalese politics.

It could prove to be a taxing few weeks for President Abdou Diouf as the
country moves closer to the 27 February presidential elections. Senegal's
Diouf faces a tricky contest against some stiff political opposition. His
party is already on the back foot as allegations of vote rigging plans began
emerging barely as the last firework came to earth after the Millennium
celebrations ended. But there are indications that it is a campaign he has
long been planning.

The allegations of rigging are all the more damaging as he is standing
against his veteran rival, Abdoulaye Wade, who returned from a year abroad
in October. It was a warm and triumphant welcome for the opposition leader,
as tens of thousands of people turned out to greet him. That sort of
popularity makes many independent observers believe that Diouf will find it
tough to win in a clean election.

Of course what makes the situation even more volatile has been the recent
overthrow of Henri Konan Bedie in Cote d'Ivoire. Bedie was on the verge of
an election when coup leader Brigadier General Robert Guei's move left him
without any domestic allies. While coups may have a common air about them in
Africa, it will not have passed Diouf's notice that Senegal and Cote
d'Ivoire have both been considered francophone Africa's most stable
countries; both have faced growing unrest among the military and both have
heard growing demands for change.

Diouf was well-alerted to the discontent in June last year when a general
strike paralysed Senegal. The country's airport, hospitals and schools were
closed in the first such action in seven years after a breakdown in
negotiations over pay and welfare.

In mid-December at his Socialist Party's (PS) conference and in the presence
of 2,500 delegates, he was selected as presidential candidate. It is the
last time he can stand for office but he is already into his 19th year of
rule and as a result the mood for change has become stronger. One newspaper
warned, "the real danger for Abdou Diouf is the rub-off effect of being in
power for too long ... This proclivity to hold on to power often leads to
manipulations which harbour risks for the democratic process."

At Diouf's selection, the party's first secretary, Ousmane Tanor Dieng,
emphasised that the party's goal was to ensure a transparent and democratic
first round of the presidential election.

It was then that Diouf shocked observers with pledges of 'Sopi' (change).
This is a somewhat surprising statement for a man who has been in power so
long.

So Abdou Diouf has to contend with concerns that he is not damaging the
concept of the nation's democracy and he must be seen as an advocate for
change, even among a strong coterie within his own party. Fortunately he may
be aided, if only in perception, by the West African Economic and Monetary
Union (UEMOA) countries advancing towards an economic union last month.

Ironically it is not only within the PS that there will be change. In late
February, the 73-year old Abdoulaye Wade will end his leadership of the
Democratic party. He has held the position undisputed since 1974 but the
fight for his successor will be on, whether Wade becomes national President
or not. And the same goes for Diouf. This is his last Presidential election
and he is soon to surrender leadership of the PS, although it is predicted
that the party's first secretary, Ousmane Tanor, will succeed.

This uncertainty within the PS was made worse by the dismissal from the
party of the former foreign minister, Moustapha Niasse in June. Niasse said
he has resigned. He was highly critical of party members and the way the
country was being run and accused some of his former colleagues of
corruption. Within a month Niasse applied for permission to register a new
political party and now Diouf faces Niasse and his Alliance for Progressive
Forces in the Presidential elections. Niasse himself is regarded as one of
the most popular and richest politicians in the country and has already
received words of support from several influential Islamic leaders.

The issue of vote rigging will not go away, even after the elections are
over and done. In April last year, the main opposition in Senegal - the
Democratic Party - boycotted parliament in support of its demands for
stronger measures to prevent fraud in the Presidential elections.

In his inimicable style, Wade called for safe-guards and demanded that
experts from France and the United States help draw up a reliable register
of voters. The demands were ignored. Even before the new year dawned, many
independent newspapers expressed concern over the issue of voter confidence
in the honesty of the elections. They hinted that in spite of President
Diouf's promises of free and fair elections, people were cynical and voter
turn-out would be low.

On New Year's day, the government's national news agency told the country
that 2,619,808 voters had been registered (excluding those overseas) and had
already began collecting registration cards. The agency dismissed a vague
rumour that the cards were not standard.

Within days the issue had become a national crisis. The opposition parties
claimed that there were two types of voter cards; one that conforms to
correct standards and printed in Senegal and the other, which is fake, and
printed in Israel. They formed the Front for Fair and Transparent Elections.
Eventually the government admitted that there were indeed registration cards
from abroad. It said they had been ordered by Interior Minister, General
Lamine Cisse because there had been intentions to cheat - but by the
opposition parties rather than by the government. The chairman of the
socialist party, Abdourahim Agne went so far as to say that the only reason
one of the opposition party leaders was complaining was because he was the
former Interior Minister and fancied the job back.

Ironically, however, the recent war of words about vote rigging also reflect
a problem the opposition face in beating Diouf. Some 17 opposition parties
have united to complain about the election irregularity - their number
splits votes against the ruling party. The high profile (if dubious quality)
of opposition presidential candidates now also splits the votes. Apart from
Wade and Niasse, there is the leader of the Union for Democratic Renewal
(URD), Djibo K‰.

Both K‰ (whose party is only slightly over a year old) and Niasse are highly
popular because the man in the street see them as having courage, the
courage to drop years of links with the SP and go out on their own. They
have wasted no time in appealing to the youth vote, a sector of the
population that has suffered most from the country's economic problems.

Long-term members of opposition parties such as Idrissa Seck, Wade's number
two, Amath Dansokho of the Independence and Work Party (PIT) and Iba Der
Thiam of the Convention of Democrats and Patriots, among others, hope to
gain Wade's mantle when he steps down. They are vehemently opposed to either
K‰ or Niasse trying to gain influence in the opposition camp. For many
traditional opposition players these two are old pillars of the regime and
only moved to opposition when they were forced from the centre of power from
the PS.

It was these concerns which brought together six of these most powerful
opposition parties to form an electoral alliance called the Alternative
Coalition 2000 in support of Wade. The coalition expressly excluded any role
for these two maverick politicians.

So apart from the number of candidates splitting the opposition vote, is
there much else Diouf can do to get re-elected? A closer look at his
political manoeuvring over the past year reveals method in what was
considered madness in playing with the social political agenda.

Observers point out that it can hardly be a coincidence that in late
December a cease-fire was announced between the government and the Movement
of the Democratic Forces of Casamance rebels. Naturally this pleased an
increasingly dissolute army who had been dealing with the problem.

The armed rebels have been fighting for the independence of Senegal's
southern Casamance region and they signed the cease-fire agreement in
Banjul, Gambia, after two days of negotiations.

The two parties also agreed to meet once a month for six months in Banjul
(starting again at the end of January) in a bid to solve issues on which
they differ.

According to the Gambian negotiators, the meetings will also enable them to
examine the means needed to implement the permanent monitoring of the
cessation of hostilities in Casamance.

Senegalese authorities announced they had not agreed to secession by the
southern region but did say they planned to review the movement's demands to
be transformed into a political party, the release of its fighters and the
lifting of all constraints on the free movement of people and goods in
Casamance. And by the second week of January, Diouf had already announced
the release of political prisoners.

The deals should not come as a surprise. In May 1999, the government
announced a big aid programme for the Casamance, where the 18-year old
rebellion was originally sparked by underdevelopment.

The Prime Minister, Mamadou Lamine Loum said the money would go towards job
creation, rebuilding the infrastructure and landmine clearance. At the time
the plan was greeted positively but with some surprise.

For any leader the economy remains the greatest problem the nation faces.
There is little doubt that Diouf hopes that with the economic union under
the auspices of UEMOA, some of Cote d'Ivoire's economic prowess will rub off
on Senegal, although considering that country has frozen debt repayments it
may be an optimistic view. In the meantime February and March look set to
see some down and dirty politicking.


Copyright © IC Publications Limited 2000.

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