Arithmetics Of The Kombo East Constituency By-Election
By Mbaye B. Sarr & Mohammed L. Sillah
May 16, 2006, 19:26
Sunday 14th May gave political pundits, observers and most especially, activists lot of food for thought. The Kombo East by-elections that had been heatedly contested by the political parties came out with its verdict. Many, as we predicted, are seeing the results as a localized rehearsal, or a premonition of what is to come in October. The ruling APRC winning over a divided opposition and a largely frustrated electorate turning their back on politics, the parties and elections. But such rash verdicts are missing some very important points.
We mentioned earlier in a pre-election editorial that Kombo East Electorates, always having voted for the powers-that-be, might also in fact, pay greater consideration to constituency-specific issues or the characters contesting the elections. Characters here meaning clan and family linkages, etc and etc.
Another factor we did not mention is the ruling party's propensity to use its overwhelming powers of incumbency to influence and intimidate voters. When the exercise is a single by-election, and this power can be better focused, it becomes even more formidable. Kombo East has recently been the venue of visits by top government and party officers and the beneficiary of untold financial donations. The people of that constituency have been graced with the presence of dignitaries who had for long seen on the shores of that constituency.
But underlying the jubilation of the victorious ruling party is certain hollowness. They now know that if they were faced with a combined opposition force, things would have been different. For the first time since Independence, a sitting party has not been able to muster absolute majority in elections in that whole Kombo area. A united opposition would have convincingly trounced the APRC. This is an important element in the postmortem.
The opposition must sit down, not to lick their wounds. There is no time for that. What they must do is to learn the pertinent lessons that the results of the Kombo East by-elections in so much abundance. NADD and the UDP/NRP blocs of parties must forge some form of collaboration. NADD must understand that politics is the art of the possible. There is no where in the world where vote-winning, bigger parties succumb to the leadership of smaller political parties in any form of coalition. Relying on mechanical majorities to conjure up scenarios that will put leaders of political sects ahead of broadly based political parties is wholly untenable.
The arithmetic of the Kombo East by-election is straightforward enough: APRC is less than NADD and UDP/NRP, but UDP/NRP is more than twice that of NADD.
The UDP/NRP coalition must also take the moral courage of stretching forth an olive branch to its comrades in the opposition, including NADD. The chances are there clearly written on the results of the by-elections. If you can forge some form of unity, or at least collaboration, then the nation has a chance for peaceful changes. If you do not now, Subhanalla!
What the Gambian needs is peaceful changes that will save the nation and its people from the hostage situation they are in. If it cannot be done by the ballot, others in our name, with or without our consent may attempt to do so. In attempting to do this our country may be plunged into irreparable destruction.
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