Judging from the figures of both 2001 and 2006 gathered from the IEC and
Statehouse web page , it is my opinion that currently, neither the APRC nor
the opposition are popular alternatives for the Gambian registered voters
if analysis are to based on the total number of electorates i.e 670,336 in
2006 versus 450,706 in 2001.
In 2001, almost 90 percent( 89.71 ) of the total registered voters turned
out to vote leaving almost 11 percent(10. 29) of registered voters not
voting.
In 2006, 58 percent( 58.4 ) of the total registered voters turned out to
vote leaving almost 42 percent (41.46) of registered voters not voting.
Based on these numbers (the total number of electorates), rather than the
52.6 percent reflected on the 2001 figures, all the APRC had was 47.33 in
2001 i.e Actual APRC votes 213,337 divided by total registered electorates
450,706. This in my opinion gives a much broader insight of the reality and
vulnerability of the current regime.
However, in 2006 one can clearly see that APRC’s percentage of voters has
dropped by almost 8 percent to 39.44 percent of the total registered voters
i.e cctual APRC votes 264,404 divided by total registered electorates
670,336.
Similarly, based on .the total number of electorates rather than the 47.4
percent reflected on the 2001 figures, all the opposition had was 42.38
i.e actual Opposition votes 191,006 divided by total registered electorates
450,706.
However, in 2006 one can also clearly see that the opposition suffered the
biggest voter apathy ever, dropping by 23.28 percent managing to hold
on to a mere 19.10 percent of the total registered voters i.e actual
combined Opposition votes 128,034 divided by total registered electorates
670,336.
In 2006 , one can clearly see that APRC percentage of voters has dropped by
almost 8 percent, and the opposition dropped by 24 percent from 47.8
percent to 19 percent compared to 2001 ,thus signaling a downward spiral
in both camps.
Again, please note that together all the APRC and opposition had is 39.44
(APRC) and 19.10 (Opposition) percent of the total registered voters
respectively, which clearly indicates a minority status for both camps in
the big scheme of things.
This in my opinion echoes the dissatisfaction of many voters and lack of
mass appeal for the current opposition parties, despite the guaranteed
victory speeches made by Hamat Bah in Atlanta, although some who attended
the meeting with myself included made it clear to him that the 2006
elections was a foregone conclusion and a guaranteed APRC victory for his
confidence reflected nothing but a mere act of “ building castles in the
air”.
I must also add that the same rhetorical speech was made by Ousainou
Darboe who happened to have sat on the same chair declaring his allegiance
to the NADD MOU which he subsequently abandoned.
Could it therefore perhaps be a signal for a viable alternative with a
new and rejuvenated opposition front led by a much more dynamic candidate
than the same old UDP, NRP, and NADD leaders, coupled with a candid effort
to try getting the bigger portion of the 42 percent of registered
voters who stayed home?
Or would they continue accusing the APRC of buying voter cards, election
fraud, importing foreign voters and Jammeh Marabouts, who in all candidness
simply sat aside and watch the opposition destroy itself with it’s
unreasonable zeal for power struggle? Better yet, is this not what we
call in America “You snooze, you loose” ?
For all we know, someone once called the APRC(Aimless People Running our
Country), but ended being coerced to share the same bed with what he’d for
years called the devil. We must take this as caution indicative of Sheriff
Dibba’s move after 2001 elections.
Is it time for a new breed - and I quote Darboe in Atlanta 2006 “ We need
Salable candidates” to the Gambian electorates, perhaps meaning that it is
time for them take the back sit?
For the APRC, could it also mean that for Jammeh and APRC to hold on to
power, they must reach out and find a way to bring the country together
with a much more democratic, gentler , kinder, more tolerant and forgiving
third term with fewer detentions, media tolerance i.e regular press
conferences with no implications to journalists and less interference with
the judiciary among a pile of recent injustices?
Should he Jammeh equally strive for the bigger portion of the 42 percent
of registered voters who stayed home to stay in power?
In my opinion, the answer to all these questions for both camps is a
resounding “Yes”. It is also my contention that a clear indication and
perhaps icing on the cake will be the APRC’s guaranteed victory of the
upcoming parliamentary elections considering the current opposition
disintegration led by power hungry politicians who might even turn out to
be worse than the APRC if ever given the chance to lead.
Perhaps this is also a signal to fill a vacuum in the political system
with a kinder and gentler independent movement whose vision and objective
will not only be to unite the country regardless of party affiliation with
sincere willingness to forgive, but bold enough to replace the current
opposition front with a younger generation of politicians adequately
financed, equally or more charismatic than Jammeh. With all fairness, the
APRC under Jammeh is what’s happening in The Gambia at least from the
standpoint of those who went out and voted.
Perhaps this is also an opportunity for the APRC to re-organize and take an
honest , sincere and in-depth look at its present setting. This must
include the engagement and campagne within the Gambian diaspora with Jammeh
himself making it a point to attend diaspora gatherings like the July
Fourth in Atlanta, Carnival in London and Scandanavea with the ultimate
goal of engaging Gambians in progressive dialogue and support for his
government.
Otherwise, sooner or later pressures from the international community will
require unconditional accord of Absentee votes (the right to vote away from
home) which under the present status is not in his favor, although 5 years
is enough time to convince some in the diaspora.
This must be done without relying on opportunistic, Pseudo, insincere APRC
Chapters like the Atlanta ,DC and other branches within diaspora whose main
motivation is to exploit the monetary gains of the APRC and perhaps
employment opportunities in the Gambia without the ability to attract not
even 50 attendees to APRC rallies in Atlanta.
It should be recognized as a signal to understand that even though, they
might have gained the majority of those who went and vote this time around,
it might as a well be seen as the beginning of an end considering the 42
percent of potential voters in whose hands their political hegemony lies.
If the current voter profile remains the same in the Gambia , both the
APRC and the current opposition parties can be rest assured and not
surprised that some day the deciding 42 percent will be the main factor in
clinging on the power as this silent majority yearns for hope, fairness,
justice, a leveled playing field and ultimately inevitable out of country
vote (Absentee Vote) for the diaspora.
Until then , I will forever be willing to accept my dear friends Musa
Jeng’s(STGDP) and Kebba Foon’s(STGDP), Abdoulie Sosseh’s (APRC-Atlanta),
Serigne Nyang’s (APRC-Atlanta) assertion of Ablie Njie Lekbi Chi Birr
Atlanta being a fence sitter.
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