----- Original Message -----
From: "Andy Mensah" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Saturday, November 15, 2003 3:51 PM
Subject: [unioNews] Africa in the year 2025


> 15 November 2003 06:18
> <H3>Africa in the year 2025</H3>
> Ferial Haffajee
>
> Johannesburg, South Africa
> A ground-breaking study by the United Nations Development Programme
> (UNDP) has sought to predict what life in Africa could be like by
> 2025.
>
> Contributions to the study came from more than 1 000 thinkers across
> the continent. Their prognosis: four scenarios ranging from imminent
> doom or stagnation to rapid modernisation and heightened prosperity.
>
> The report -- Africa 2025 -- was coordinated by the African Futures
> project of the UNDP, and edited by Alioune Sall.
>
> "Over 1 000 persons spread over 54 African countries at one time or
> another participated in this exercise, which resembled an
> intellectual odyssey -- and that began in South Africa," he writes.
>
> As an architect of and lobbyist for the pan-African dream inherent in
> the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad), South African
> President Thabo Mbeki has been a supporter of the African Futures
> project.
>
> Writing in the foreword of Africa 2025, he notes that the
> continent "does not have a divine right to succeed in her endeavours
> in the current age. Nor is there a supernatural force that can will
> us to fail. How events unfold over the next 20 years or so depends in
> large measure on what we as Africans do."
>
> The continent's researchers started by drawing up a situation report
> of key trends that have come to define the continent. The first is
> the population boom currently being experienced. Contributors believe
> this is not exceptional, but that "Africa is catching up to its
> former proportion of the world's population."
>
> But, this boom is also fuelling low economic growth and developmental
> stagnation -- more so than Aids, environmental problems, corruption
> or bad governance. Record numbers of young people are presenting
> African governments with a hefty education bill. The continent also
> has the highest earner-dependent ratio in the world.
>
> Urbanisation is another important trend. In 1950, about 10% of
> populations across the continent lived in towns and cities. This
> figure has since tripled.
>
> A vital challenge concerns the way in which most African economies
> are structured. The study says that "Africa on the whole remains a
> rent economy" -- one where there has been little foreign investment
> in sectors other than those relating to commodity exports.
>
> The "process of accumulation has not yet truly begun" in the
> continent, says the report. Sub-Saharan Africa remains locked in a
> pattern of high indebtedness, is marginal to international trade and
> investment flows -- and has a huge informal economy.
>
> What will our fortunes be in 22 years? Sall employs various metaphors
> of a lion to portray the possible realities. These are called "the
> lions are hungry", "the lions are trapped", "the lions come out of
> their den" and the "lions mark their territory".
>
> An Africa in which the lions are hungry is the doomsday scenario.
>
> "It is to be feared that Africa will increasingly teeter on the brink
> in the next 25 years. Several factors will contribute to the
> increasing fragility of regimes that cause the economy to stagnate,"
> observes the report.
>
> This will be caused by a steep drop in foreign aid, the stripping of
> the environment and by conflict.
>
> "We cannot forget that sub-Saharan Africa will have the highest
> proportion of young men aged 15 to 29. Worldwide, this is the age
> bracket most prone to violence," said contributors.
>
> In a "trapped lion" scenario, Africa will remain marginal in the
> global community, the Nepad projection of 7% annual growth "far from
> having been achieved". This reality will see "Africans go on living
> or surviving. But their standard of living [will not improve] as
> significantly as on other continents."
>
> The set of millennium development goals -- a United Nations plan to
> stimulate development by 2015 -- has not been met in the trapped lion
> scenario. This is also because "people are reluctant to contribute to
> government's coffers. They still see government as picking people's
> pockets, rather than providing expected services."
>
> The study then considers the final two alternatives, in which the
> lions come out of their den and mark their territory. These are the
> renaissance scenarios in which a generation of entrepreneurs comes to
> the fore, driving growth, and where strong leadership evolves: "There
> emerges a new generation of politicians who break away from the
> previous generations."
>
> For these things to become a reality, a series of preconditions must
> be met. These include the achievement of universal education and
> health, better infrastructure and a more equitable international
> architecture.
>
> "African governments will probably have to make themselves heard,
> loud and clear, to obtain the new exemptions they need to protect
> their fledgling industries," says the study.
>
> And what of Nepad in 23 years' time?
>
> "Nepad certainly did not bring about all of the radical changes that
> its promoters expected. But it was the starting point for an `African
> renaissance'."
>
> Pockets of hope in various parts of the continent suggest that this
> final scenario could come to pass, says Sall, pointing to the
> entrenchment of multiparty democracies in various states, some
> stability and stronger economies.
>
> He adds that the jury is still out on Africa 2025 -- which was
> launched at the end of last month.
>
> But, he believes the UNDP's willingness to undertake the project
> bodes well for the future: "After having fallen out of favour and
> been relegated to the rank of shibboleths ... the long-term view has
> now found its rightful place in development circles," says Sall.
> -- IPS
>
> All material copyright Mail&Guardian.
>
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