Money-Africa,sched
   IMF scales back African output foreast this year and next

   PRAGUE, Sept 19 (AFP) - The International Monetary Fund has scaled back
its
growth projections for Africa this year by a full percentage point, citing
depressed non-oil commodity prices, drought and political turbulence,
according to a report released here Tuesday.
   The IMF, in its twice yearly World Economic Outlook report, predicted
that
output from African economies would increase 3.4 percent this year, down
from
its estimate last April of 4.4 percent.
   In 2001, African output is expected to expand 4.4 percent, compared with
4.3 percent forecast by the IMF in its April version of the report.
   While oil producing nations have benefitted from higher energy prices,
"many of the non-oil-producing countries in the region ... have faced
substantial terms-of-trade losses as export prices of non-fuel commodities
and
other primary goods remain generally depressed ... while oil import prices
have risen," the report found.
   But in South Africa, it said, an economic recovery, "while still
fragile,
is gaining momentum," with output on track to grow three to four percent in
2000 and 2001.
   In the longer term, the IMF said, authorities will have to carry out
structural reforms, notably through privatization, to attract the foreign
and
private investment needed to raise annual growth to five percent and reduce
unemployment.
   The report hailed the Nigerian government for its efforts to stamp out
corruption, restore macroeconomic stability amd improve relations with
creditors.
   But it called on authorities to allocate more funds to education while
also saving a large portion of increased revenues.
   The IMF was in addition upbeat about prospects for Cameroon, Ghana,
Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda, which have "begun to reap some of the
benefits of macroeconomic and structural reforms."
   Tanzania and Uganda, the report said, have been able to withstand weak
export prices "largely because output has become more broad based and
governments and the international community have been responsive."
   The Fund was far less sanguine about prospects in Ivory Coast, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco and
Zimbabwe.
   It cited in particular weak export prices for Ivory Coast and Kenya,
drought and war in Eritrea and Ethiopia, drought in Morocco, war in the
Democratic Republic of Congo and political turbulence in Zimbabwe.
   nh/jh

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