As reports on the by-elections campaign come in one would like to think that
the UDP is for an easy win in Baddibu! My question is how sure are they?

Even in a normal election year, central Baddibu's elections are always
close. That is largely because of 1) demographics and 2) traditional rivalry
between the two main population centers, Salikeni and Njaba Kunda. Shrewd
politicians like Dr.Saho understand that very well and had in the past used
it to his advantage. Past elections showed that with Salikeni divided (both
candidates come from there) the guy who takes Njaba Kunda had always been
the winner. When Njaba Kunda and Salikeni have their own candidates the
trick is to capture the surrounding villages. The internal divisions within
Njaba Kunda and Salikeni do not allow for block votes.

With that in mind I am seeing this as a particularly difficult contest for
the opposition.

1. Salikeni is deeply divided. Both Lamin Dibba and Sakou Saho are really
equals in the eyes of ordinary voters. They are all little known outside
their friends and family. To the ordinary Baddibunka, they are the same.

2. None of the two would capture Njaba Kunda by themselves.One can say Sekou
Saho has the advantage in Njaba Kunda because of  Dr. Saho and Yankuba
Touray. Njaba kunda is Yankuba's adopted home. He grew there. APRC losing in
1996 was really a combination of alienating both Sherif Dibba and Dr Saho
and AFPRC arrogance. This, I believe was quickly learned and he spent a
great deal trying to mend fences with Njaba kunda. Transferring the
Chieftaincy to Njaba Kunda was all part of that. Dr. Saho on the other hand
is Sekou's uncle. Infact it could be argued Sekou is really a surrogate
candidate. I wonder how many remembered Buba Saho contesting as Independent
candidate on Dr. Saho's ticket in central baddibu in 1972 when Dr. Saho was
disqualified by Jawara and SM Dibba on technicalities? Well this time it's
not different.

3. The opposition. The opposition do not seem to understand the demographics
or politics. Could one argue that they went early after Dr. Saho and in
effect helped APRC from committing political suicide? Perhaps they did.
Lately they are spending too much time on Sekou's personal life. I wish
instead of saying much about Sekou's education or lack of knowledge about
Baddibu, they would try to engage the Baddibunkas about their kids who are
either killed or missing during the so-called coupe attempts or those
languishing in jails without charge or exile without a cause. You wonder why
they are not saying anything thing about the recent Hajj 2001. When it comes
to economics they should avoid the "if I am elected I will develop" Baddibu.
The Baddibunka's know very well Opposition do not have the resources to
"develop their districts".  They should be talking about the trade season
and role of Yahya government. Also they should not underestimate the role of
money in this. While the Baddibunkas are very descent and honorable folks
many of them are very poor indeed. Yahya and his team know that. The
opposition should realize that few people can afford not to take money for
their vote. Afterall, their cousins in Banjul, the well-to-do civil servants
are selling much more than votes!

I hope am dead wrong!

Malanding

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