Kebba,
Its good to hear your views on the by-elections and I thank you for your
dedication. Perhaps I should say that my attempts to "rationalize an APRC
victory" is not intended to undermine the Opposition's efforts. In fact the
aim is to prevent pre-election victory declaration. Also, I strongly believe
that it is in the opposition's interest to take everybody involved very
seriously.  Above all, they must avoid declaring victory before the ALL the
votes are cast and counted. Over the years I have come to recognized that
large crowds at opposition party campaign rallies often do not translate to
votes on election day.

Regarding SM Dibba? I do not think the man has much of an influence any
more. After all the majority of voters were not born when he was S.M. His
1992 win during over Dr Saho was due in part to the split within the PPP
when they chose Dr. Saho over late Karamo Kanteh of Njaba Kunda as their
candidate.  Anyway that's another story.

To come to Saturday's election. The best the opposition can do is to take
every issue, every minute, place and individual very seriously. There may
have reasons to declare victory but let them wait until Sunday. They may be
dealing with unprincipled people but must recognize their ability and skills
in this game. Already we heard a little about the voter card "buying" or
"safe keeping" scam that nearly went badly wrong and the police describing
it as " was as a result of a misunderstanding". Also they should not read
too much into 11th hour declarations such as the IEC's announcement about
counting votes at polling stations. It could all be part of the greater
scheme to make things "look free and fair".

Kebba, as I said earlier I hope am wrong on this but when it comes to
dealing with APRC, the opposition must not take anything for granted!

Malanding



----- Original Message -----
From: "Dampha Kebba" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 4:43 PM
Subject: Re: How sure is an opposition victory?


> Jaiteh, please allow me to engage you here in a very constructive manner.
I
> will try my level best not to be perceived as attacking you. I want to
> believe that we are on the same side here. Having said that, I must
express
> some dissent here. I just read you try and rationalize an APRC victory in
a
> manner that even APRC stalwarts on the ground cannot begin to envisage.
APRC
> stooges like Sedat Jobe are now talking about the October elections. They
> have given up on this one. Their worry is now how to recover the deposits
> put up by their candidates. This is not Opposition propaganda. These are
> facts on the ground.
>
> If you read newspapers or call people on the ground, they will inform you
> that whereas UDP rallies attract thousands of people, APRC bring bus-loads
> over to Baddibu and Kiang and pretend that their few long-time supporters
> are crossing over from UDP. We all know that they are lying. And please do
> not tell me that these thousands of UDP supporters are going to the
rallies
> (risking their lives) just to pass time and that they have no intention of
> voting for the party. These are enthusiastic and dedicated supporters.
>
> Why is Saho's personality not fair game? If the man is a drug addict
> uneducated loser, you think the people of Baddibu are not entitled to know
> that before they send him to Banjul to represent them? Are you avoiding
> talking about the man's character because you are afraid that that might
> lose him some support?
>
> In your analysis you left out the influence SM Dibba still has in Baddibu.
> You also failed to factor in the impact of Nafa Saho's unprincipled move
> when he sold his soul to the devil for a Pajero. I also think it is unfair
> to try and undermine the Opposition's campaign pledge that they will help
to
> develop the constituencies. First of all, UDP is not planning to remain in
> the opposition for very long. Come October, they will be the government of
> the day. Right there, your contention is neutralized. But even if they do
> not win in October, I remind you about why we are having a by-election. Do
> you remember what the MPs were doing when they met their untimely and
> unfortunate death? Was it Yaya who financed the mosque they went to?
> Opposition MPs can also be effective.
>
> The argument that only candidates of the ruling party can help develop
their
> constituencies, does not hold water. You call Nafa Saho a shrewd
politician,
> I call him a low-life opportunist. I hope the Opposition do not listen to
> you and go ahead and expose the two Sahos for what they are. They should
> highlight the broken promises they were given by APRC. They should
reiterate
> how devoid of good ideas people like Yankuba Touray are.
>
> Finally, I will respectfully counsel you to liaise with people on the
ground
> before you write such thesis. Reports we got indicated that when Yankuba
> Touray (your so-called son of Baddibu) faced off with Darboe in Baddibu,
it
> was Touray that was caught running with his tail in between his legs.
There
> is no way Yaya can win this election if he does not steal it from the
> people. Our farmers might have been screwed by the APRC government, but
> people in Baddibu and Kiang are not so destitute to (en masse) sell their
> votes for 25 dalasis (which I understand is the going rate APRC is
offering
> to UDP supporters). These people are smart enough to know that this is
just
> the beginning of the end. Come October, the final nail will be put in the
> coffin. Rest assured that any attempt at intellectual rationalization of a
> Yaya stolen victory, will be challenged.
> KB
>
>

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