The coming  months would be both decisive and pivotal. I am confidently
predicting that Yahya Jammeh would be removed from office and his evil ways
done away with once and for all. I know such a statement illicits a broad
range of reactions from list members anywhere from a strong  dose of
skepticism  to cautious optimism that this evil man  can be removed. In Yahya
today we find a creul but increasingly desperate man who is fully aware of
his utter rejection by the Gambian people. In a bid to emerge from this
politically fatal situation he is trying his underhanded methods of combining
acts of terror and dictatorial benevolence to pacify his victims. This
strategy no longer works as is evidenced by ordinary peoples' penchant  to
assert themselves and their rights. Even his Kangaroo courts aren't as
reliable an instrument of his repression they once were. They are now
imperfect and unpredictable and that is why the attorney general and
government prosecutors have now pioneered an entirely new genre of legal
practice: seeking case extensions into termination, figuring out that few
judges would put up with prosecutors who can't and won't proceed with trial.
Innocent people often end up saddled with legal fees and long separation from
their families on trumped charges.
Also adding to Yahya's predicament is the realization that he cannot under
circumstances fail to schedule elections in as much as he would want to. He
cannot govern the country if a declaration disenfranchising the population is
made. The opposition UDP is already on record as saying that they would not
accept postponement of elections under any circumstances  and they would
bring their supporters enmasse into the streets to resist an illegal power
grap. Amat Bah of the NRP has urged his supporters to be vigilant along
similar lines. I know PDOIS to be on record as urging strict adherence to the
stipulations of the constitution leading me to a theoretical conclusion that
they would in principle oppose any attempt at postponing elections. I don't
know if they would choose to assert themselves on the streets or treat the
Gambian people and the government of Yahya Jammeh to an elegant lecture of
the law, philosophy and sociology.
The first battle lines between the democratic forces constituting the
opposition and the government of Yahya must be drawn on the issue of local
government. The government has steadfastly refused to pass enabling
legislation to comply with constitutionally mandated local government
election. Instead they have chosen to impose administrative commissars in the
name acting mayor and  acting chiefs who have zero legitimacy in the eyes of
the people they have been sent to rule over. They are political hacks
purposely set up to compliment other conduits of government malfeasance such
as the commissioners and auxiliary bureaucrats. All opposition parties ought
to urge their supporters not to recognize these illegal office holders by
refusing to send in their hard earn taxes to pirates and lackeys. The
government has no capacity to go after hundreds of thousands of gambians
asserting their rights. In a similar vein, if and when the government brings
up the outrageous constitutional amendment proposal changing district chiefs
from being elected to being appointed by the President, UDP, PDOIS and NRP
should not dignify tabling the motion by even being present. They should
vacate the house and let the Aprc members hatch their illegal plan and they
should further urge their supporters not to recognize their own
disenfranchisement. Yahya may think he can choose the people's chief but
validating that choice rest squarely with the people to be governed. Where
would all of this lead you ask? Well, simply to one direction:
ungovernability. The people would have to choose between asserting their
rights and dignity or surrendering to the whims and caprices of a thug who
would soon turn them into a disposable possession to be used and discarded.
Another possibility in the ongoing saga of our country would be that Yahya
would reluctantly go to the pollsand with impending defeat he would decide to
incite skirmishes and use that as a pretext to annul elections. In my opinion
the opposition should still stick to their plan to massively bring their
supporters out on the streets albeit with a different strategy. The combined
strength of the opposition in the greater Banjul area is in the tens of
thousands and in the face of an election highjack, there needs to be five
massive gatherings consisting of thousands of people each. The first would
comprise of group A from Brikama and it's surrounding environments upto and
including yundum. Their objective would be to gather in their thousands and
link hands and march up to the army Barracks in yundum, over run it and take
it over. Yeah I can hear some of you expressing disbelieve that I am actually
suggesting a bloodbath in the barracks of Yundum by asking unarmed civilians
to march on the barracks of a largely unprofessional army. But I would remind
you that a much bigger army and far more ruthless than the thugs we have in
the past have been overwhelmed by defenseless civilians out on the right
path. Besides it is far from certain that you would have the army in it's
totality being predisposed to the kind waton violence it would have take to
prevent thousands of people from marching on their barracks. Infact I am
convinced a majority would not carry out orders to shoot at thousands of
people. Once the camp is overrun, the objective would be to disarm the
soldiers within and occupy the camp and persuade the erstwhile renegades to
join the people in doing the right thing. Group B meanwhile would similarly
take over the camp in Bakau with thousands from parts of Serrekunda closest
to Bakau joining the people of that town to overrun that installation
too.Again the objective is disarming and occupying. Remember in both Barracks
the civilians are still unarmed. Meanwhile Group C would be in charge of
Serrekunda ensuring that the police stations and the facilities of GRTS too
are in the people's hands with a simple and reassuring  message to the people
that are being handed their elections and folks can come join the hand
linking but that this was not  be chaotic situation. No arms and no
lawlessness.
At this time the people would have to assume that Yahya is either in Banjul
or Kanilai or some other safe house. In any case the approach to Banjul would
have to be done on the assumption that it  would entail the greatest danger.
Like any tyrant Yahya has ensured that the Presidential guard has better and
more firepower. Adding to that is the fact that the entire unit is composed
of foreign mercenaries, and fierce personal loyalists who owe their
undeserved privilege to only yahya . The Gambian people in their march to
regain their government should not expect the Presidential guard to
surrender. Group D and E would be a 5000 man people's militia who would have
to be armed from the two Camps of Yundum and Bakau. They would have to fight
an existential battle with the Presidential guard and capture the Capital
city. If at the time of this final thrust Yahya is in Banjul then that might
cap the people's march to freedom. If on the other hand he flees to Kanilai
or it's surrounding bush then the people would have to shift the battle
there. He might try to counter attack with the assortment of heavy weapons he
has stashed in that hell hole of his. But again with fewer people he would
loose that one too. There might be tactical flaws with the way I sequence
events or much more dangers inherent than I discuss but I firmly believe that
Yahya Jammeh would not prevail in a tussle with the Gambian people. He is an
evil man and good always prevails.To be sure we the people would have paid
the price for regaining our freedom, but in the process we would have laid
the foundation for our nation to begin a new and better course. Our elected
leaders would then have the monumental task of picking the pieces and provide
good leadership.  Their success or failure would depend on how we the
ordinary Gambians  remain engaged in fostering  and save guarding our
democracy.
Karamba

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