Ylva,
Thanks for forwarding us this report. The following is a paragraph from the
report. I must say the predictions are frightening to say the least!
Malanding
2.3.4.1.5. The Gambia
In The Gambia, inundation is projected to lead to a loss of 92 km2 of land
for a 1-m sea-level rise. Shoreline retreat is projected to vary between 6.8
m in cliff areas to about 880 m for flatter and sandier areas (Jallow et
al., 1996). If a 1-m sea-level rise were to occur as envisaged, without
protective measures the whole capital city of Banjul would be lost in the
next 50-60 years because a majority of the city is below 1 m. Preliminary
analysis of data from the Gambian Department of Lands on the value of land
and sample properties between Banjul and the Kololi Beach Hotel suggests
that about 1,950 billion Dalasis (US$217 million) of property will be lost
(Jallow et al., 1996). All of the structures located on land between Sarro
and Banjul cemeteries and the whole of Banjul will be lost. (It was not
possible to attach monetary value to this loss of public places.) According
to Jallow et al. (1996), the entire population of Banjul (42,000
inhabitants) and people living in the eastern parts of Bakau and Cape St.
Mary-as well as the swampy parts of Old Jeswang, Kanifing Industrial Estate,
Eboe Town, Taldning Kunjang, Fagikunda, and Aruko-will be displaced.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ylva Hernlund" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Monday, March 05, 2001 10:18 AM
Subject: Africa: Climate Change (fwd)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 22:15:16 -0500
From: APIC <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Africa: Climate Change
Africa: Climate Change
Date distributed (ymd): 010304
Document reposted by APIC
+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++
Region: Continent-Wide
Issue Areas: +economy/development+
Summary Contents:
This posting contains the executive summary of the chapter on
Africa from the recently released report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on The Regional Impacts of Climate
Change. When the report was released in January, Klaus Toepfer,
executive director of the UN Environmental Program, based in
Nairobi, warned that Africa faced the most direct consequences of
extreme weather conditions exacerbated by global climate change.
Another UN official told the Financial Times (February 24, 2001)
that 'global warming will inflict the most harm in the parts of the
world that are the poorest, the least prepared - and the least
responsible for causing it.'
A new comprehensive panel report released in February raised
estimates of global warming to 1.4 degrees C. or higher for the
21st century, as compared to 0.6 degrees C. in the 20th century.
And a study released in mid-February predicted that the ice fields
on Mt. Kilimanjaro would likely be completely gone between 2010 and
2020.
In a related posting today, updates on current floods in Mozambique
and neighboring countries.
The full IPCC chapter on Africa can be found at:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/006.htm
and
http://www.usgcrp.gov/ipcc/SRs/regional/006.htm
Additional information from the IPCC can be found at:
http://www.ipcc.ch
+++++++++++++++++end profile++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
################################################################
APIC Note:
Please visit http://www.africapolicy.org/desk for the statement
released by the Africa Fund, American Committee on Africa, APIC,
and related networks on the March 5 day of action against the
pharmaceutical company suit trying to block South African
production and import of generic medicines.
################################################################
The Regional Impacts of Climate Change
Chapter 2: Africa
Executive Summary
Several climate regimes characterize the African continent; the
wet tropical, dry tropical, and alternating wet and dry climates
are the most common. Many countries on the continent are prone to
recurrent droughts; some drought episodes, particularly in
southeast Africa, are associated with El Niņo-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Deterioration in terms of trade,
inappropriate policies, high population growth rates, and lack of
significant investment-coupled with a highly variable
climate-have made it difficult for several countries to develop
patterns of livelihood that would reduce pressure on the natural
resource base. Under the assumption that access to adequate
financing is not provided, Africa is the continent most
vulnerable to the impacts of projected changes because widespread
poverty limits adaptation capabilities.
Ecosystems: In Africa today, tropical forests and rangelands are
under threat from population pressures and systems of land use.
Generally apparent effects of these threats include loss of
biodiversity, rapid deterioration in land cover, and depletion of
water availability through destruction of catchments and
aquifers. Changes in climate will interact with these underlying
changes in the environment, adding further stresses to a
deteriorating situation. A sustained increase in mean ambient
temperatures beyond 1 C would cause significant changes in forest
and rangeland cover; species distribution, composition, and
migration patterns; and biome distribution. Many organisms in the
deserts already are near their tolerance limits, and some may not
be able to adapt further under hotter conditions. Arid to
semi-arid subregions and the grassland areas of eastern and
southern Africa, as well as areas currently under threat from
land degradation and desertification, are particularly
vulnerable. Were rainfall to increase as projected by some
general circulation models (GCMs) in the highlands of east Africa
and equatorial central Africa, marginal lands would become more
productive than they are now. These effects are likely to be
negated, however, by population pressure on marginal forests and
rangelands. Adaptive options include control of deforestation,
improved rangeland management, expansion of protected areas, and
sustainable management of forests.
Hydrology and Water Resources: Of the 19 countries around the
world currently classified as water-stressed, more are in Africa
than in any other region - and this number is likely to increase,
independent of climate change, as a result of increases in demand
resulting from population growth, degradation of watersheds
caused by land-use change, and siltation of river basins. A
reduction in precipitation projected by some GCMs for the Sahel
and southern Africa - if accompanied by high interannual
variability-could be detrimental to the hydrological balance of
the continent and disrupt various water-dependent socioeconomic
activities. Variable climatic conditions may render the
management of water resources more difficult both within and
between countries. A drop in water level in dams and rivers could
adversely affect the quality of water by increasing the
concentrations of sewage waste and industrial effluents, thereby
increasing the potential for the outbreak of diseases and
reducing the quality and quantity of fresh water available for
domestic use. Adaptation options include water harvesting,
management of water outflow from dams, and more efficient water
usage.
Agriculture and Food Security: Except in the oil-exporting
countries, agriculture is the economic mainstay in most African
countries, contributing 20-30% of gross domestic product (GDP) in
sub-Saharan Africa and 55% of the total value of African exports.
In most African countries, farming depends entirely on the
quality of the rainy season - a situation that makes Africa
particularly vulnerable to climate change. Increased droughts
could seriously impact the availability of food, as in the Horn
of Africa and southern Africa during the 1980s and 1990s. A rise
in mean winter temperatures also would be detrimental to the
production of winter wheat and fruits that need the winter chill.
However, in subtropical Africa, warmer winters would reduce the
incidence of damaging frosts, making it possible to grow
horticultural produce susceptible to frosts at higher elevations
than is possible at present. Productivity of freshwater fisheries
may increase, although the mix of fish species could be altered.
Changes in ocean dynamics could lead to changes in the migratory
patterns of fish and possibly to reduced fish landings,
especially in coastal artisinal fisheries.
Coastal Systems: Several African coastal zones - many of which
already are under stress from population pressure and conflicting
uses - would be adversely affected by sea-level rise associated
with climate change. The coastal nations of west and central
Africa (e.g., Senegal, The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria,
Cameroon, Gabon, Angola) have low-lying lagoonal coasts that are
susceptible to erosion and hence are threatened by sea-level
rise, particularly because most of the countries in this area
have major and rapidly expanding cities on the coast. The west
coast often is buffeted by storm surges and currently is at risk
from erosion, inundation, and extreme storm events. The coastal
zone of east Africa also will be affected, although this area
experiences calm conditions through much of the year. However,
sea-level rise and climatic variation may reduce the buffer
effect of coral and patch reefs along the east coast, increasing
the potential for erosion. A number of studies indicate that a
sizable proportion of the northern part of the Nile delta will be
lost through a combination of inundation and erosion, with
consequent loss of agricultural land and urban areas. Adaptation
measures in African coastal zones are available but would be very
costly, as a percentage of GDP, for many countries. These
measures could include erection of sea walls and relocation of
vulnerable human settlements and other socioeconomic facilities.
Human Settlement, Industry, and Transportation: The main
challenges likely to face African populations will emanate from
extreme climate events such as floods (and resulting landslides
in some areas), strong winds, droughts, and tidal waves.
Individuals living in marginal areas may be forced to migrate to
urban areas (where infrastructure already is approaching its
limits as a result of population pressure) if the marginal lands
become less productive under new climate conditions. Climate
change could worsen current trends in depletion of biomass energy
resources. Reduced stream flows would cause reductions in
hydropower production, leading to negative effects on industrial
productivity and costly relocation of some industrial plants.
Management of pollution, sanitation, waste disposal, water
supply, and public health, as well as provision of adequate
infrastructure in urban areas, could become more difficult and
costly under changed climate conditions.
Human Health: Africa is expected to be at risk primarily from
increased incidences of vector-borne diseases and reduced
nutritional status. A warmer environment could open up new areas
for malaria; altered temperature and rainfall patterns also could
increase the incidence of yellow fever, dengue fever,
onchocerciasis, and trypanosomiasis. Increased morbidity and
mortality in subregions where vector-borne diseases increase
following climatic changes would have far-reaching economic
consequences. In view of the poor economic status of most African
nations, global efforts will be necessary to tackle the potential
health effects.
Tourism and Wildlife: Tourism - one of Africa's fastest-growing
industries - is based on wildlife, nature reserves, coastal
resorts, and an abundant water supply for recreation. Projected
droughts and/or reduction in precipitation in the Sahel and
eastern and southern Africa would devastate wildlife and reduce
the attractiveness of some nature reserves, thereby reducing
income from current vast investments in tourism.
Conclusions: The African continent is particularly vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change because of factors such as
widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land
distribution, and overdependence on rain-fed agriculture.
Although adaptation options, including traditional coping
strategies, theoretically are available, in practice the human,
infrastructural, and economic response capacity to effect timely
response actions may well be beyond the economic means of some
countries.
************************************************************
This material is being reposted for wider distribution by the
Africa Policy Information Center (APIC). APIC provides
accessible information and analysis in order to promote U.S.
and international policies toward Africa that advance economic,
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Documents previously distributed, as well as a wide range of
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