We Deserve Better

Since independence in 1965, The Gambia has been a victim of shabby
leadership at best and wretchedness in the last twelve years. In less than
a week, we have the opportunity to resuscitate the bedraggled system we
have for a government by voting Halifa Sallah and NADD into office.

We’ve been unfortunate on one hand to have had only two leaders in the
last four decades both of whom made sure the Gambian people taste a bout
of their tyranny and inconceivable levels of civil corruption; on the
other hand, we’ve been fortunate enough to not have experienced more
tyrants during this time. We’ve had far too few statesmen in The Gambia,
let alone merely competent officeholders since independence but we have
the opportunity to change that. The leaders we’ve had so far too often
reject sound policy advice and refuse to take a long and broad view of
their job. Both have not hesitated to prosecute their political rivals or
bleed our economy for their personal benefit. Sir Dawda Jawara’s
neo-patrimonial style of leadership has been dwarfed by the personalistic,
tyrannical cronyism exemplified in the past twelve years of what I would
call the “Kanilai regency.”

Better leadership may not be the cure all for Gambia’s lack of meaningful
development or current economic woes, but it would be the biggest leap in
the right direction.

In July 1994, many progressive Gambians saw hope in a new generation of
supposedly ardent self proclaimed revolutionaries (as in “soldiers with a
difference”). Subsequent events have more than chilled the optimism in the
early days of the curtailment of the reversal of Jawara’s not-so-bad
progressive leadership into the ever so familiar form of autocratic rule.
Why must The Gambia be cursed with the worst kind of leadership? Does the
answer lie in the lack of national identity, a tradition of political
authoritarianism, an underdeveloped middle class or is it widespread
economic distress? Perhaps we could blame foreign aid to some extent but I
believe there are underlying micro-level factors and I will speculate on
other incentives created by the environment to help explain the not so
obvious.

One is inclined to assume, in the traditional political economy like that
of Gambia, that both Jawara and Jammeh (J&J) usually appeared to be trying
to do what is best for their person whenever and wherever the opportunity
arises. In other words, they chose actions that appear to them to produce
the most benefit at the least personal cost. You would think they have an
open mind to take cues and learn from what was and is happening to other
leaders in our sub-region.

Undoubtedly, the most troubling thing about Jammeh is his tendency to
ignore or out rightly reject conventional economic advice. The Gambia
under Jammeh has become the graveyard of so many well intended reform
policies according to well placed technocrats in both J&J’s regimes.
Jammeh in particular, has frequently defied many IMF and World Bank reform
policies for being ignorant, cruel and unrealistic only to revert back to
his accommodating self when things start going blatantly bad for him.
Witness “operation no compromise;” the “electric broom” and the “jahatu
economics” of a couple years back. Not that the IMF or World Bank had the
most effective ideas per se. I certainly do not think Jammeh would prefer
to perpetuate mass poverty and economic degradation, which can only make
his tenure in office even more arduous. Cooperating with international
monetary and financial institutions is the most effective way to assure
continued support and fiscal stability, yet Jammeh apparently see
political rationality in adopting his recklessly speculative policies that
are economically damaging and irrational to the core.

Clearly, the predicament faced by Jammeh is that any pay-offs for most
economic policy reforms lay in the future, but he has to hold onto power
for now. The last thing that comes to the minds of reckless tyrants like
Jammeh is to invest in the future in such a manner. Everything they do or
say is about them and the day that’s it! For they don’t trust to live to
witness the next day. Such an insecure power base is the underlying force
in Jammeh’s reckless gambles for immediate returns.

Allow me to be a bit more technical in my analysis here. If we apply
financial analysis concept of the present value of money to political
economy, we can come up with the concept of the “political discount rate.”
The idea here is that future events have a present value which can be
ascertained by using a discount rate (to bring down the value in say 20
years to today’s value). This discount rate increases with risk and
uncertainty such that when the outcome of a policy is doubtful over time;
it makes sense to bring it down (at a higher rate) to its present value.
The more doubtful the outcome the, the more appealing the alternative
policies that yield immediate dividend even if the expected return of
those policies is low.

Therefore, under the current circumstances of economic and political
uncertainty, the reckless leader in Jammeh will consistently forgo
promising economical investments – ventures whose benefits he may not
survive to reap. Vision 2020 becomes more worthless than a rag piled at
the Bakoteh dump site because whatever crosses the recklessly irrational
mind of the beast in Jammeh at a certain moment in time is what matters
most all the time.

The same argument of higher political discount rate could be used to
explain the unprecedented level of corruption and pilferage in the civil
service from the top down. Jammeh has succeeded in erasing the line
between public and private property over the years while accumulating vast
personal fortune and swiftly bankrupting The Gambia in the process. Jammeh
has the highest incentive to take his rewards now – and to take as much as
possible - due to the high level of uncertainty in his future as leader of
Gambia. Unfortunately for the common weal, his effort to amass and protect
his individual interest both politically and economically, has the most
devastating effect on everyone else.

I don’t need any supernatural powers to confidently assert the
pre-occupation of Jammeh’s mind on his life after the “Kanilai regency.”
It is imperative to remind Jammeh that twenty-eight - possibly more -
former rulers in Africa died violently; twenty-two of whom were killed in
a coup (including 3 former presidents killed by Rawlings in 1979). This
cycle of suspicion and pre-emptive repression must be curtailed in less
than a week; we have the opportunity to stop him cold by voting NADD and
Halifa Sallah in office.

NADD under Halifa Sallah’s leadership in the next five years will endeavor
to make the political environment less hazardous in The Gambia. A safe
political environment will help to reduce the incentives to engage in
political and economic misbehaviors that blurred any meaningful life for
the average Gambian in the past four decades. In principle, a NADD
government will encourage more responsible and forward-looking activity by
all stake-holders. The hope lies in the possibilities of a pluralistic
national political system where anyone can express their political
opinions and take part in public decisions. Such genuine changes in an
environment where democracy has shallow roots may be challenging but NADD
and the Youth Militant Group activities in the past two to three years
have already catapulted the impetus for the much needed change.

Vote NADD and Halifa Sallah if you can or encourage your folks to vote
NADD and Halifa for a better Gambia. A good leadership is the best
investment we can offer our children and great grand children. The trend
that is going to be set by a NADD leadership will have its irreversible
impact for years to come. What more can we ask for. Vote NADD! We deserve
better.

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