Jaiteh, please allow me to engage you here in a very constructive manner. I
will try my level best not to be perceived as attacking you. I want to
believe that we are on the same side here. Having said that, I must express
some dissent here. I just read you try and rationalize an APRC victory in a
manner that even APRC stalwarts on the ground cannot begin to envisage. APRC
stooges like Sedat Jobe are now talking about the October elections. They
have given up on this one. Their worry is now how to recover the deposits
put up by their candidates. This is not Opposition propaganda. These are
facts on the ground.

If you read newspapers or call people on the ground, they will inform you
that whereas UDP rallies attract thousands of people, APRC bring bus-loads
over to Baddibu and Kiang and pretend that their few long-time supporters
are crossing over from UDP. We all know that they are lying. And please do
not tell me that these thousands of UDP supporters are going to the rallies
(risking their lives) just to pass time and that they have no intention of
voting for the party. These are enthusiastic and dedicated supporters.

Why is Saho's personality not fair game? If the man is a drug addict
uneducated loser, you think the people of Baddibu are not entitled to know
that before they send him to Banjul to represent them? Are you avoiding
talking about the man's character because you are afraid that that might
lose him some support?

In your analysis you left out the influence SM Dibba still has in Baddibu.
You also failed to factor in the impact of Nafa Saho's unprincipled move
when he sold his soul to the devil for a Pajero. I also think it is unfair
to try and undermine the Opposition's campaign pledge that they will help to
develop the constituencies. First of all, UDP is not planning to remain in
the opposition for very long. Come October, they will be the government of
the day. Right there, your contention is neutralized. But even if they do
not win in October, I remind you about why we are having a by-election. Do
you remember what the MPs were doing when they met their untimely and
unfortunate death? Was it Yaya who financed the mosque they went to?
Opposition MPs can also be effective.

The argument that only candidates of the ruling party can help develop their
constituencies, does not hold water. You call Nafa Saho a shrewd politician,
I call him a low-life opportunist. I hope the Opposition do not listen to
you and go ahead and expose the two Sahos for what they are. They should
highlight the broken promises they were given by APRC. They should reiterate
how devoid of good ideas people like Yankuba Touray are.

Finally, I will respectfully counsel you to liaise with people on the ground
before you write such thesis. Reports we got indicated that when Yankuba
Touray (your so-called son of Baddibu) faced off with Darboe in Baddibu, it
was Touray that was caught running with his tail in between his legs. There
is no way Yaya can win this election if he does not steal it from the
people. Our farmers might have been screwed by the APRC government, but
people in Baddibu and Kiang are not so destitute to (en masse) sell their
votes for 25 dalasis (which I understand is the going rate APRC is offering
to UDP supporters). These people are smart enough to know that this is just
the beginning of the end. Come October, the final nail will be put in the
coffin. Rest assured that any attempt at intellectual rationalization of a
Yaya stolen victory, will be challenged.
KB


>From: "Malanding S. Jaiteh" <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: How sure is an opposition victory?
>Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:42:22 -0500
>
>As reports on the by-elections campaign come in one would like to think
>that
>the UDP is for an easy win in Baddibu! My question is how sure are they?
>
>Even in a normal election year, central Baddibu's elections are always
>close. That is largely because of 1) demographics and 2) traditional
>rivalry
>between the two main population centers, Salikeni and Njaba Kunda. Shrewd
>politicians like Dr.Saho understand that very well and had in the past used
>it to his advantage. Past elections showed that with Salikeni divided (both
>candidates come from there) the guy who takes Njaba Kunda had always been
>the winner. When Njaba Kunda and Salikeni have their own candidates the
>trick is to capture the surrounding villages. The internal divisions within
>Njaba Kunda and Salikeni do not allow for block votes.
>
>With that in mind I am seeing this as a particularly difficult contest for
>the opposition.
>
>1. Salikeni is deeply divided. Both Lamin Dibba and Sakou Saho are really
>equals in the eyes of ordinary voters. They are all little known outside
>their friends and family. To the ordinary Baddibunka, they are the same.
>
>2. None of the two would capture Njaba Kunda by themselves.One can say
>Sekou
>Saho has the advantage in Njaba Kunda because of  Dr. Saho and Yankuba
>Touray. Njaba kunda is Yankuba's adopted home. He grew there. APRC losing
>in
>1996 was really a combination of alienating both Sherif Dibba and Dr Saho
>and AFPRC arrogance. This, I believe was quickly learned and he spent a
>great deal trying to mend fences with Njaba kunda. Transferring the
>Chieftaincy to Njaba Kunda was all part of that. Dr. Saho on the other hand
>is Sekou's uncle. Infact it could be argued Sekou is really a surrogate
>candidate. I wonder how many remembered Buba Saho contesting as Independent
>candidate on Dr. Saho's ticket in central baddibu in 1972 when Dr. Saho was
>disqualified by Jawara and SM Dibba on technicalities? Well this time it's
>not different.
>
>3. The opposition. The opposition do not seem to understand the
>demographics
>or politics. Could one argue that they went early after Dr. Saho and in
>effect helped APRC from committing political suicide? Perhaps they did.
>Lately they are spending too much time on Sekou's personal life. I wish
>instead of saying much about Sekou's education or lack of knowledge about
>Baddibu, they would try to engage the Baddibunkas about their kids who are
>either killed or missing during the so-called coupe attempts or those
>languishing in jails without charge or exile without a cause. You wonder
>why
>they are not saying anything thing about the recent Hajj 2001. When it
>comes
>to economics they should avoid the "if I am elected I will develop"
>Baddibu.
>The Baddibunka's know very well Opposition do not have the resources to
>"develop their districts".  They should be talking about the trade season
>and role of Yahya government. Also they should not underestimate the role
>of
>money in this. While the Baddibunkas are very descent and honorable folks
>many of them are very poor indeed. Yahya and his team know that. The
>opposition should realize that few people can afford not to take money for
>their vote. Afterall, their cousins in Banjul, the well-to-do civil
>servants
>are selling much more than votes!
>
>I hope am dead wrong!
>
>Malanding
>
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