Omar,

I also saw that analysis by John King and it was somewhat discouraging but all is not lost.
On the Democratic side, whoever accumulates 2000 + delegates first (I do not have the exact number handy) including super delegates becomes the nominee.If none of them reaches that magic number first after all the states that hold primaries have done so, then whoever can get enough super delegates on their side at or before the convention will get the nomination.
Delegates from each state are apportioned based on the percentage of votes won, so the margin by which a candidate wins a state determines how many of the delegate pool from that state goes to them. So according to John King's analysis, Barack can still win the nomination if he wins all of the states, (and perhaps even just the majority of them although not sure about this one) by a very high margin that will allow him to get the majority of the delegate count. 
On the super delegates, some of them have committed to Barack and some to Clinton but they can also change their minds and the conventional wisdom is that they will most likely go with the candidate that won the popular vote because, in the interest of their own political futures, they will not want to anger their constituents by voting against their choice, especially if the majority in the state they represent voted overwhelmingly for a particular candidate.
So winning by higher margins in the upper 60's and higher in the remaining states as well as winning over most of the super delegates one way or the other can still make Barack the nominee.
Let us hope he wins big in all the remaining states and see if the delegates will also follow the winner.
If that fails to do it and if Barack wins the popular vote but not the majority of the delegates because a majority of  super delegates decide to vote for Clinton, that will not sit well with the peopel and some are already talking about the going to court if that happens.
It is getting interesting but I still think he can pull it off.
Did you see the size of that crowd in Madison Wisconsin tonight?
Jabou



 


 

-----Original Message-----
From: Omar Sallah <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Tue, 12 Feb 2008 10:12 pm
Subject: Re: Hey









Jabou, 
 

I am a strong supporter of Obama and I hope he becomes the nominee. Since I 
came home from work today, I have been glued to my TV and I have enjoyed 
every moment of it. Unfortunately I became unglued when CNN's John King said 
even if Barack Obama wins the rest of the primaries, he won't have enough 
delegates to hit that magic number 2025 delegates; neither will cute old 
Hillary. So ultimately, the Denver convention will have to decide on this. I 
just can't get over the fact that he racks up all this victories/popular 
vote and then go to Denver only to realize that he ain't the nominee. 
 

What are the chances that the super delegates and the convention won't pick 
nice boy Obama? Oprah will be pissed! 
 

I do know, and ofcourse all indications are Hill' Camp is unstable. Running 
out of money (now there is an economic plan for you when she becomes 
president), and shuffling staff, not to mention unpaid staff. Can anyone 
shed some light on this. 
 


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jabou Joh" <[log in to unmask]> 

To: <[log in to unmask]> 

Sent: Tuesday, February 12, 2008 8:57 PM 

Subject: Hey 
 


Hey, 
 

Barack Obama won all three of Tuesday's contests decisively, as Virginia, 
Maryland, and Washington, DC joined a sweep of eight straight victories 
since Super Tuesday. 
 

But the race for the Democratic nomination remains close.  It's going to be 
a fight for every vote and every delegate in the remaining 18 contests. 
 

Join our movement for change by making a matched donation now: 
 

https://donate.barackobama.com/match 
 

Barack Obama has won the most states and the most delegates because a 
movement of people decided to take back the political process and 
participate in unprecedented numbers. 
 

I'm one of them. 
 

Our goal is 500,000 people giving to the campaign -- this year alone -- by 
March 4th. 
 

Join me and make a donation now: 
 

https://donate.barackobama.com/match 
 

Thanks 
 

 

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