Gambia L,
On July 22, 1994, the unexpected happened in the Gambia. On that day, a
group of junior officers of the Gambia National Army overthrew the 30 year
old PPP government of Sir Dawda Jawara.
A lieutenant, named Yahya Jammeh, who led the take over, explained that the
coup had been necessitated by the "widespread corruption that was rampant
under Jawara's leadership."
The young coup leader made it abundantly clear that he had come to "get rid
of corruption" and replace it with "a government that would be accountable,
transparent, progressive and democratic."
But the then lieutenant did not stop at that. He also promised a government
that would be committed to combating poverty, reducing unemployment,
improving agriculture, as well as upgrading the Gambia's inefficient health
care system.
Consequently, as we are about to enter the new millennium, but more
importantly, having regard to the fact that Mr Jammeh has now had a little
over 5 years in public office, I find it imperative, as a concerned Gambian,
to assess his performance at the helm so far.
To this end, I'll assess Jammeh's performance - from the time of the coup to
now - against the backdrop of his well pronounced mission and goals, most of
which have been already cited above.
Three fundamental questions now arise: Have the living conditions of the
majority of Gambians improved significantly since the coup? Has Jammeh
adhered to his many pledges? Does the future for the Gambia look bright or
bleak, as long as Jammeh is at the helm?
In order to try and answer these vital questions, I would be looking at
sectors such as health, education, women's affair, tourism, agriculture, the
economy, human rights, population, agriculture, the press, foreign policy,
judiciary, etc to see HOW they have performed/fared under Jammeh.
In my view, looking at the performances of all these vital sectors would
give us some pointers as to whether or not, overall, the majority of
Gambians are better off today than before. I'll start by looking at the
performance of the Gambian economy between 1998 and 1999.
THE ECONOMY (1998 and 1999)
A useful source for assessing the performance of the economy for this period
is the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) Policy Framework Paper
1999-2001, released just last month, November 1999. The Policy Frame Work
Paper was prepared by the Gambian Government in cooperation with
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank staffs.
According to the policy paper, the "overall economic performance under the
first annual ESAF arrangement (1998) was mixed."
There was "significant progress", but there were also some "set backs".
Positively, according to the paper, inflation had fallen from 2.8 per cent
in 1997 to 1.1 per cent in 1998, while overall GDP growth had risen from 2.7
per cent in 1996/97 to 4 3/4 per cent in 1998.
However, while these have been achieved, the overall deficit (excluding
grants) for 1998 was 4.5 per cent of GDP, above the targeted 4 per cent.
Total government revenue also declined to 18 per cent of GDP and was below
the program target. The policy paper blames this decline on a "short fall in
import tax revenue".
In order to finance the deficit, according to the policy paper, the
government had greater recourse to domestic financing, thereby contributing
to further increases in domestic interest payments to 21 per cent of total
government revenue in 1998.
Consequently, "total government domestic debt increased to 26 per cent of
GDP from 23.5 per cent in 1997", according to the paper. Also, towards the
end of 1998, there was a scarcity of foreign currencies within the
commercial banks, because their net foreign assets had decreased.
Furthermore, at the end of December 1998, the Gambia's total outstanding
public debt had amounted to US $439.2 million, or 105.7 per cent of GDP,
according to the ESAF paper.
Take note that this staggering figure does exclude, or not include, the
Gambia's private and commercial debts, whose figures are not known. Let us
also not forget that at the end of December 1997, the Gambia's outstanding
external debt was US $421.9 million. This means that just within a year, the
external debt had increased by US $18 million if my Maths is correct.
Debt owed to multilateral creditors represented approximately 80 per cent of
the total stock of outstanding debt, including about 3.2 per cent to the IMF
and 3.8 per cent to the World Bank.
Debt owed to official bilateral creditors accounted for almost 19 per cent
of the total outstanding, including about 8 per cent to Taiwan and less than
5 per cent to Paris Club creditors.
According to the policy paper, the projected debt service is estimated at US
$16.6 million in 1999, including US $5.6 million in interest. Therefore, the
debt service obligations in 1999 represent "about 7.2 per cent of exports of
goods and non factors services."
Be reminded that in 1998, the total external debt service had amounted to US
$20.8 million. In fact, given the hugeness of the Gambia's external debt,
the Gambia will now "keep seeking grants and loans on concessional terms."
Also, the government will no longer contract or guarantee any "new
non-concessional external loans (that is loans not entailing a grant
component of at least 35 per cent)."
So, while people are commending Jammeh for the significant strides made in
developing the Gambia's infrastructure, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact
these developments have been achieved at a heavy costs, for we can now see
how the Gambia's debts, both domestic and external, have drastically
increased, since Jammeh seized power.
POVERTY
Let me now talk about poverty, so that it would be clear to you that the
living conditions of the majority of Gambians have remained unchanged,
despite the rhetoric.
For your information, demographic and socio-economics indicators on the
Gambia can be obtained from a number of sources, including UNDP Human
Developments Reports, Data sheets from the Department of Central Statistics
of the Gambia, World Development Reports and World Health Reports.
To start with, let me inform you that the Gambia's GNP per capita income is
US $350, while the developing countries, on average, have a GNP per capita
income of US $987.
Now, about 64 per cent of the Gambian population presently live under the
poverty line, while 40 per cent are reported to be under the food poverty
line, meaning that this 40 per cent under the food poverty line cannot
afford to buy or eat 2700 calories day, which can fill a very small basket.
But this is not all.
Another 20 per cent of our population is considered to be "extremely poor."
Furthermore, as I write this piece, 50 per cent of the public are said to
lack access to safe drinking water.
HEALTH
While the government boasts about the fact that it has built another
hospital in Farafenni, a lot remains to be achieved in this sector. The
Gambia's health indicators are very, very low, to say the least. In fact,
they are among the lowest in Africa.
The infant mortality rate remains high: 92 deaths per 1000 live births
compared to 68 per 1000 for the developing countries. Take note that the
figures for infant mortality rate are different from those for child
mortality rate which are 181 deaths per 1000. The child mortality for
developing countries, on average, is 91 deaths per 1000 live births.
With regard to maternal mortality rate, the figure for the Gambia is 1050
per 100,000, while the figure for the developing counties, on average, is
480 per 100,000. The life expectancy at birth in the Gambia is 48 years;
however, 34 per cent is likely to die before reaching 40 years. The average
life expectancy for Africa is 52 years.
Also, 12 per cent of children under 5 in the Gambia are reported to be
"malnourished". In fact, malnutrition is widespread. We are also told by
various indicators on Gambia that 56 per cent of births are not attended by
qualified personnel.
EDUCATION
Although, the Gambia has set up a university, for the first in Gambian
history, and built more schools under Jammeh than Jawara, the education
sector still leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, more schools have been built,
but the student-teacher ratios are low, according to the policy paper.
Furthermore, inadequate resources are spent on instructional materials,
meaning that there are not sufficient teaching materials and furniture for
these newly-built schools. Meanwhile, the illiteracy rate is still 61 per
cent as opposed to the African average of 44 per cent.
In 1997, the primary school enrolment figures for our country were 77.7 per
cent, as compared to 100 per cent for all developing countries. In fact,
secondary enrolments in the Gambia are very low at 15.1 per cent compared to
35 per cent for the rest of Africa.
Another constraint to the country's education sector is the serious shortage
of technical man power and professionals. It is reported that about 60 per
cent of the trained teachers in Gambia are non-Gambians.
POPULATION
The rate at which the population of the Gambia is growing is a cause for
concern not only to Gambians, but also to the country's development
partners. In fact, the policy paper makes it loud and clear that "the high
rate of population growth and low level of family planning are serious
factors hindering the Gambia's socio-economic development."
The current population growth, according to the policy paper, is estimated
at about 4.2 per cent. The total fertility rate has also remained high. The
fertility rate is 6 births per one woman. In fact, the figure is even higher
for rural women which stands at 7.2 births per woman. By the way, as of
1995, the dependency rate in the Gambia was 92 per cent of the economically
active population.
WOMEN ISSUES
This is also another area where a lot remains to be achieved. While the
Gambia can boast about having appointed a female vice president and three
other cabinet ministers, the majority of Gambian women still face a number
of constraints.
Although, as I write this piece, the government is trying to formulate a
gender policy which will integrate the recommendations of the Beijing
conference, the plight of the majority of the women remains unchanged.
In fact, if the government is genuinely committed to women's empowerment and
development, then why is it taking the Jammeh regime all these years and NOT
formulating a gender policy to integrate the recommendations of the Beijing
conference on women.
Gambia L, remember that the Beijing conference was held in September 1995,
over 4 years ago!! Ndey Jobarteh, your views on this delay would be
appreciated by your brother.
In any case, women in the Gambia, who make up 50 per cent of the population,
continue to carry a heavy burden of work. But women in rural Gambia bear
much of the brunt.
Apart from being entirely responsible for household maintenance and family
credit, they also represent about 30 to 50 per cent of the agricultural
labour force. About 40 per cent of the total agricultural production is
actually produced by rural women.
At peak times in the agricultural season, despite the change, women in rural
Gambia continue to work 15 hours per day processing and preparing food,
among others things. Needless to mention that all their tasks are performed
in the traditional way.
For example, they still have to walk long distance to collect water and fuel
wood and also to reach farms and markets. The female illiteracy rate also
remains high. In fact, only 25 per cent of the female population is literate
in one language.
In a Division like Upper River, about 99 per cent of women of 20 years is
illiterate. There are still cultural beliefs that favour boy education and
see girl education as unnecessary. The drop out rates are higher for girls
than boys.
Having regard to all these contraints, it is clear that this sector also
needs to be given the priority it deserves. The standard of living for rural
women must be improved if the government is truly committed to women's
empowerment and development.
Access to income, land, market and capital will certainly ensure that
economic advancement of our women can take place, while the availability of
safe water, sanitation, health care and education are key ingredients of
social reformation.
TOURISM
The Gambia's tourist industry suffered "severe set backs" in 1994/95, after
the British government and other European countries had issued a travel
advice, warning their citizens against travelling to the Gambia, in the wake
of the 11 November 1994 alleged coup attempt.
However, the sector is said to be picking up, although it is fair to say
that not much progress has been registered. By the way, the tourism sector
contributes significantly to GDP, accounting for an estimated 10 per cent of
GDP per annum which is an average annual foreign exchange receipt of about
US $42 million US dollars.
The sector is also said to provide employment opportunities for around 8,000
Gambians. However, after the travel advice was issued, the number of
tourists visiting the Gambia plummeted by 52 per cent from 89,997 in 1993/94
to 43,317 in 1994/95. The number of tourists that visited the Gambia in
1996/97 was 82,540, an increase of 14.6 per cent over the 1994/95.
But in spite of this increment, the industry still faces a number of
constraints. Apart from lack of diversification of sources and products of
tourism, the large number of tourists who visit Gambia nowadays are "low
spending tourists".
In fact, in 1996/97, there was a decline in the out-of-pocket expenditure
per tourist. This means that apart from what they spent in paying for
boarding and lodging, most of the tourists didn't spend extra, or anything
at all, outside their hotels.
So even though, the number of tourists has increased considerably in
1996/97, the total of out-of-pocket expenditure during this period was
estimated at D327.78 million dalasis compared with D346.4 million dalasis in
1994/95.
This decline represents a 5.4 per cent drop. The decline in the number of
tourists not spending much money while holidaying in the Gambia is blamed on
the fact that most the these tourists are "returners", who no longer need to
spend a lot on buying souvenirs and gifts.
AGRICULTURE & NATURAL RESOURCES
Due to good rains and favourable weather conditions, the Gambia's
agricultural sector is reported to have seen slight improvements. The ground
nut crop, in particular, was said to have increased by 7 per cent to about
84,000 tons in 1998/99.
However, while crop production was remarkable, there was over 50 per cent
decline in the contribution of the fisheries sub sector.
Consequently, the agricultural sector's total contribution to GDP showed no
difference: 21 per cent in 1998 compared to 21.7 per cent in 1997.
The agricultural sector is now third foreign exchange earner for the Gambia,
employing about 75 per cent of the economically active and, as mention
before, contributing more than 20 per cent of the GDP annually.
This sector is said to generate 85 per cent of the national export earnings,
while providing about two-thirds of total household incomes.
By the way, the re-export trade is the largest foreign exchange earner for
the Gambia, representing 27 per cent of GDP in 1998. The tourism industry is
the second largest foreign exchange earner for the Gambian economy.
The Gambia is also faced with an environmental problem. Given the rapid
expansion of urban population at 6.21 per cent per year, as well as lack of
the necessary infrastructure, the country is confronted with serious
environmental health problems.
By the way, the Gambia is reported to be one of 10 countries in the world
most vulnerable to rising sea levels. In fact, the rising sea level and the
sand mining have already started degrading the coastal areas. Also, the salt
water intrusion can now be felt in ground water and half way up to the
length of River Gambia.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS, ENERGY & TRANSPORT
The Gambia's telecommunications system is said to be very efficient and was
ranked 8th in the world in terms of call completion rate. GAMTEL presently
has capacity for over 220 international circuits, but this capacity,
according to Gamtel, should be expanded to 750 in the medium to long term.
With regard to the transport sector - the seaport, airport, roads and
waterways network - its contribution to GDP had averaged 8.7 per cent up to
1994.
As for energy, no one on this list needs to be told that the supply of
electricity in the Gambia is still erratic, perhaps even worse than before.
There is load shedding still going on in the country, even as I write this
piece. By the way, energy cost in the Gambia is among the highest in the
region.
The available capacity at Kotu Power station is now 25.3 MW and a reserve
capacity of 3.5 MW, compared to a peak load demand of 21.8 MW. I'll stop
here till next time.
By the grace of god, and if time permits me, in part 2 of this write up, I
intend to look at how human rights, the press, Foreign policy judiciary,
among others, have also fared under Jammeh. This would be followed,
hopefully, by some concluding remarks on what, in my view, the future holds
for Gambia in the new millennium.
Let me also inform some of you who do not know that the government is
presently involved in legal tussle with ALIMENTA, a Swiss Company, over the
seizure by the government of its property, which property is the processing
plant of the Gambia Ground nut Corporation (GGC).
GGC was owned by ALIMENTA, but in January 1999, the government seized the
GGC processing plant, because it was not satisfied with the role of the
company in the ground nut sector and also the difficult negotiations on the
producer for the 1998/99 crop season.
Consequently, in July 1999, ALIMENTA filed for arbitration with the
International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Ironically, in
August 1999, the government also filed charges against the GGC and its
directors in the Banjul Magistrate Courts.
However, because of the Government's decision to seize the GGC, the IMF did
not allow the mid term review of the ESAF program to be completed. No wonder
then that the government had to initiate discussions with ALIMENTA in order
"to resolve the problem in a mutually agreeable manner."
In concluding part one, I'll argue that even assuming that all the
macroeconomic objectives set out for 1998/99 were achieved, or even
accepting the theory that the Gambian economy is "on a sound footing", there
is ample evidence that the majority of Gambians have not seen any
significant improvements in living standards since the coup.
Meanwhile, just consider, or ponder over, these realities:
* About 64 per cent of the Gambian population live under the poverty line,
while 40 per cent live under the food poverty line. 20 per cent are
considered "extremely poor."
* Illiteracy is still high: 61 per cent compared to the African average of
44 per cent.
* 12 per cent of the children under five are malnourished, and 50 per cent
of the entire population lack access to safe drinking water.
* The population growth rate is very, very high: 4.2 per cent; and the
fertility rate is also high, 6 births per woman. Also 56 per cent of births
are not attended by qualified personnel. And at the peripheral level, about
27 per cent of health facilities are reported to be unmanned.
* The Gambia's per capita income is US $350, while, on average, the per
capita income for developing countries is US $987
* Infant mortality is 92 deaths per 1000 lives, while the maternal mortality
estimated in 1996 was 1050 per 100,000. The African average maternal
mortality is 638 deaths per 100,000.
* Child mortality rate is 181 per 1000 compared to African average of 107
per 1000.
* Gambia's total outstanding public debt amounted to US $439.2 million at
the end of December 1998, or 105.7 per cent of GDP. At the end of December
1997, external public debt was US $ 421.9 million. So just within a year,
the external increased by US $18 million.
* I do not have the figure for the Government's domestic debt, but it is
equivalent to 26 per cent of GDP, according to the policy paper.
Ebrima Ceesay,
Birmingham, UK.
PS: D.A Jawo, Could you please make three print out of this piece, if
possible, and give them to The Point and The Independence newspapers, as
well as Sheriff Bojang of The Observer, for publication in the Gambia. This
is an era of information dessimination.
By the way, do send my regards to my former boss, Cherno Jallow.
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