With the repeal of Decree 89 in the offing and the possible resurgence of
First Republic politicians we are bound to witness unprecedented and
possibly contentious presidential and legislative elections in The Gambia.
The electorate could be split further along political allegiances and ethnic
sympathies engendered by a mushroom of political groupings, each trying to
canvass enough support from the people.

As we wait to read the fine print of President Jammeh's July 22 speech, some
political pundits are wondering whether the un-banned politicians will
revive their former parties or join some of the existing ones.   With most
of their members scattered over the various parties that contested the last
elections, I have serious doubts as to the possibility of a comeback for the
People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Gambia People’s Party (GPP) or National
Convention Party (NCP).

The PPP’s death-knell tolled on 22nd July 1994, when their three decade old
government was overthrown with the tacit approbation of the Gambian public,
their executive arrested, dragged before commissions of inquiry and
humiliated.  After 30 years in power the PPP myth had been shattered one
morning by a handful of army lieutenants in their 20s!  Who said anyone is
indispensable?

Since the party’s fall from grace, we have seen some of its members jump
into the band wagon of the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Re-orientation and
Construction (APRC) with the very people who had stripped them of their
power, prestige and pride.  Is this not the typical ‘nyaaka kersa’
(shamelessness) that politics are known for? From party chairpersons to
former ministers we saw the PPP machinery fall apart as their leader,
ex-president Jawara nursed his wounds in the UK.

While he may still be popular in his constituency, Omar Jallow’s charisma
alone cannot put back the pieces  of the PPP together.  I doubt if most of
the party’s exiled members would want to risk going back to The Gambia to
expose themselves to possible abductions, arbitrary arrests following an
abrupt change of mind by Mr. Jammeh. For Mr. Jammeh has certainly excelled
in being unpredictable when it comes to dealing with his rivals.  Those who
consider him naïve and unintelligent are always taken for a ride, from what
I have observed.

As for the NCP, I think the party leader Sheriff Mustapha Dibba is still
taking a vacation from politics.  For a politician who was known for his
acerbic attacks on the PPP government and who never yielded to threats and
intimidation his dumb-founded silence since the arrival of Mr. Yahya Jammeh
in the scene is quite perturbing, not to say disarming.  Most of his party
stalwarts have re-grouped around the United Democratic Party (UDP) whose
ideals they identify with.  I don’t want to believe that they would quit the
UDP to re-assemble around their party leader.  Mr. Dibba’s political
experience could have been very useful for the UDP whose present leader, Mr.
Ousainou Darboe is considered too soft to handle the APRC and beat them at
their game.

Assan Musa Camara is a septuagenarian whose candidacy for the presidential
seat is clearly disqualified by the Second Republic Constitution.  The GPP
came into being after Mr. Camara was expelled by former President Jawara
from his government following the abortive 1981 coup d’etat.   With a small
financial base and inadequate resources, his party could hardly garner
enough support in the country.  But his integrity and soft-spoken humility
won some sympathy from a negligible number of financiers and intellectuals
in the Great Banjul Area.  Surprisingly, he failed to retain his seat in the
Kontara Constituency after the emergence of the GPP, losing by narrow
margins to a younger and obscure candidate, but who is a native of Kontora
unlike Mr. Camara himself.

As an elder statesman his weight in the opposition could boost up quite a
considerable image for the Opposition.

The recent declaration by the Peoples Democratic Organization for
Independence and Socialism (PDOIS) regarding their willingness to form a
coalition with the other opposition parties has been greeted with silence by
their partners, the National Reconciliation Party (NRP) and the UDP.

As we wait to see what the leaders of  the PPP, NCP and GPP will do next,
President Jammeh’s APRC is digging its heels into the ground, ready for a
fight.  Through inducement and clientelism and possibly intimidation
(burying people six feet deep) Mr. Jammeh has already set the tone of his
campaign and may pull off a victory unless the Opposition gets down to
serious work.

In Senegal, the opposition parties started negotiating the modalities of a
coalition well in advance of the presidential elections.  In their
collective vigilance, they caught the government trying to smuggle
registration cards from Israel, they asked for a secret ballot and for the
first time the powerful religious brotherhoods were asked to stay out of
electioneering and not issue their infamous ‘ndiguels’ or religious decrees.
  What happened next has been finely caught in a phrase by the Senegalese
Professor Momar Coumba Diop and his colleagues as the “uprooting of the
baobab”. The Socialist Party (PS) of Abdou Diouf which had ruled the country
since 1960 was brought down by the opposition parties in one fell swoop like
a giant boabab!

I hope our opposition parties will learn from the experiences of our
neighbors.

Hamadi.












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