Poorer, unstable and divided, Ivory Coast goes to the polls   by Caspar
Leighton

   ABIDJAN, Oct 18 (AFP) - Ivory Coast is set to elect a new president on
Sunday after 10 months of military rule that has seen the country become
poorer, more divided and more unstable.
   When General Robert Guei came to power in a December 24 military coup,
the
toppling of the unpopular but elected regime of Henri Konan Bedie was
internationally condemned, with the result that foreign aid all but dried
up.
   An already struggling economy is now looking sicklier than ever.
   At the beginning of the month, Ivorian Finance Minister Mamadou Koulibaly
warned that the country would have difficulty in meeting debt repayments
over
the coming three months.
   "We need 120 billion CFA francs (162 million dollars) to pay civil
servants, to pay for the elections and for debt repayments, we have only 60
billion (81 million dollars)," declared Koulibaly.
   "We were supposed to pay roughly 800 billion CFA francs (one billion
dollars) external debt this year, we have made a great effort and have paid
230 billion (310 million dollars)," said the minister.
   Koulibaly said the Ivorian economy was "in a disastrous situation" at the
time of the December coup and that while the regime had improved receipts
and
cut spending, there had been no outside help.
   Confidence of outside investors has taken a knock, with a major and
immediate casualty of the coup being the indefinite suspension of a project
by
French construction giant Bouygues to build a third bridge across the
Abidjan
lagoon.
   An indisciplined and divided army has added to the climate of
instability,
with the finance minister admitting that any re-emerging investor confidence
was quashed by the mutiny of July 4-5, when disgruntled soldiers took to the
streets, shooting and looting in pursuit of a pay claim.
   No precise figures were given, but the finance minister projected
negative
growth for 2000.
   Another negative development has been the growth of nationalism, in a
country where one in three inhabitants is of foreign origin.
   Ousted president Bedie started talking about "Ivorianness" during the
1995
election campaign. It was adopted as a weapon against his political rival
Alassane Ouattara, leader of the Rally of Republicans (RDR) who is accused
by
adversaries of being from Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast's northern neighbour.
   Since the coup, nationalist rhetoric has become common currency and
lately
an election campaign tool, with even the socialist Laurent Gbagbo jumping on
the bandwagon to attack his rivals.
   The Supreme Court ruling of October 6 that disqualified 14 of 19
presidential hopefuls including Ouattara and all candidates of the dominant
Ivory Coast Democratic Party (PDCI) was a blow not only against democracy
but
against the Muslim north, as all five northern candidates were barred.
   The divide between a poor Muslim north and a relatively rich
predominantly
Christian south is set to grow with this election.
   The increase in nationalist rhetoric from politicians has seen an
increase
in ethnic violence, with 18 people dying since August in fighting between
the
indigenous population and Burkina Faso immigrants in the south west of the
country.
   When Guei launched his presidential campaign last week it was peppered
with
nationalist sentiment and the crowd roared their approval.
   The general went so far as to threaten foreigners who talk about
"exclusionism" in Ivory Coast with reprisals against their compatriots
living
in the country.
   Since the Supreme Court ruling, all seems in place for Guei to be elected
president, which would be a triumph for nationalism, militarism and a likely
continuation of Ivory Coast's economic isolation.
   crl/bm

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