Give us democracy - but not yet  Lindsey Hilsum
  Published 05 July 2007
    
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  We may be seeing the beginnings of a new, more robust, ideology in China and Russia that combines capitalist economics with illiberal government
  Car bombs in London and Glasgow, US forces mired in an unwinnable war in Iraq, violence spiralling out from the Middle East - the forces destabilising the current world order seem evident.
  However, militant Islam may not turn out to be the biggest challenge to liberal democracy since the Second World War. Russia and China are emerging as what the Israeli political scientist Azar Gat has called "non-democratic great powers". With their large populations, increasingly successful economies and modernising militaries, they provide an alternative to the European and American way that communism never did.
  "As China rapidly narrows the economic gap with the developed world, the possibility looms that it will become a true authoritarian superpower," writes Gat in the July/August edition of Foreign Affairs. By contrast, he sees radical Islam as representing "no viable alternative to modernity . . . [and] no significant military threat".
  Such thoughts may seem irrelevant as you stand in line at Heathrow presenting your plastic bag of toiletries for inspection.
  Terrorism certainly disrupts our way of life, even if its methods and ad hoc organisers are unlikely to plunge us into World War III. But, as the US becomes ever less popular around the world - partly because of its clumsy response to terrorism - vast numbers of people are looking for an alternative political philosophy that Islamism cannot supply. China and Russia are only too happy to fill the gap.
  Western politicians often say democracy is an inevitable outworking of capitalism. George W Bush made the case for trade with China by saying it was "not just monetary but moral. Econo mic freedom creates habits of liberty. And habits of liberty create expectations of democracy." When he visited China in 2005, Tony Blair aver red that there was "an unstoppable momentum" towards democracy. I have yet to see the evidence.
  In his speech to celebrate ten years since the handover of Hong Kong, President Hu Jintao talked vaguely of "developing democracy", along the lines of the old prayer "Lord, make me good, but not yet".
  There was a message in the Mao suit he wore on 30 June to inspect the guard of honour of the People's Liberation Army, which marched into Hong Kong with such menace in 1997. Hong Kong still enjoys more political freedom than mainland China under the "one country, two systems" formula, but it is not fully democratic. Hu normally wears a western suit and tie - symbol of the successful, global capitalist - but he wanted to show Hong Kongers that the power of the party, the central government and the PLA is undiminished.
  Opinion surveys suggest that most Hong Kong citizens would like to elect their government directly, rather than continuing the system where the business and political elite choose rep resentatives. But the dire warnings that a lack of democracy would sap Hong Kong's strength have proved unfounded. Hong Kong remains a successful business and financial centre, its lifestyle unchanged.
  Rather than being held back by China's authoritarian system, it has benefited from China's economic growth. Chinese business people are in the ascendant. Asked what had changed in the past ten years, Aileen Bridgewater, a long-term British resident and retired talk-show host, replied: "When we came 26 years ago, we joined the Golf Club immediately. But now there's a 20-year waiting list because there's so much money around in south China."
  Russia seems to share some of China's confidence these days, as its growing economy suggests that an authoritarian system is working.
  At the Bushes' home at Kennebunkport at the start of the month, Vladimir Putin went fishing with the first family and shared a lobster dinner. But he was clear that this was not necessarily a meeting of minds.
  "In politics, as in sports, there is always competition," he said. "It's important for these competitions to be conducted under certain rules and with respect for each other's interests."
  In President Putin's opinion, democracy was responsible for the chaos that followed the collapse of communism in Russia. In 1998, with Boris Yeltsin in charge, Russia defaulted on its domestic debt, the rouble collapsed and state welfare provision crumbled. Millions of Russians found themselves too poor and unhealthy to care about the democracy Yeltsin had introduced, and that the Americans lauded. Putin argues that Russia now has $407bn in reserves not just because oil and gas prices are high, but also because he restored order.
  Russians who value human rights and free speech may dismiss this as barely disguised fascism, pointing to the murders of campaigning journalists such as Anna Politkovskaya and the ruthless suppression of Chechnya, but many others support Putin's emphasis on national pride. Moreover, they like seeing their leader stand up to George W Bush.
  Communism failed to deliver a decent life style to those who lived under its yoke, one factor that enabled US-style liberal capitalism to win the Cold War. The ideological split between the Soviet Union and China was another.
  However, today we may be seeing the beginnings of a new, more robust, ideology in China and Russia that combines capitalist economics with illiberal government. It poses a challenge not only to American and European leaders, but also to anyone who argues for human rights and justice across the world. 
  Lindsey Hilsum is China correspondent for Channel 4 News
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