Forwarded Message [ Save to my Yahoo! Briefcase  |  Download File ] From:"Pan-African Movement" <[log in to unmask]>To:Undisclosed-Recipient@, Subject:THURSDAY POSTCARD 29TH MAY 2003Date:Thu, 29 May 2003 11:53:01 +0300

THURSDAY POSTCARD 29TH MAY 2003

 Chief Olushegun Obasanjo is today being sworn in for his second term as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The pomp and pageantry of the occasion cannot detract from the fact that the ‘mandate’ suffers credibility deficit both locally and internationally. One hopes that today’s celebrations will be tempered by that plain truth. It needs to be less triumphalist and show Nigerians and their friends that they intend to fundamentally run  an administration that is responsive, responsible and able t o deliver on the ‘bread-and –butter’ issues, security, law and order, provision of basic infrastructure and genuine peace to the majority of Nigerians.

There has been a lot of apprehension across the country. The security and intelligence agencies have been in overdrive since the elections. Some of the uncertainties concerned the call for mass protests and threats of disrupting the swearing-in from the main challenge, Retired General Muhammadu Buhari subsequently echoed by another challenger, former rebel leader, retired Col. Odumegwu  Ojukwu. It was not a threat to be taken lightly. However, I do not believe that Nigerians want a breakdown of law and order despite their consternation at the undisguised mass irregularities of the elections. Actually, to many people the electoral process was more of a votes cast.

However so disenchanted are people with military rule that they are willing to out  up with this flawed civilianisation of the generals hoping that real democracy may ultimately return to the country. The threat of a military coup therefore is almost nil. Both the first and the second republics (1960-66 and 1979-1983) were violently overthrown as a result of political grievances consequent to impossibility of peaceful change through the ballot box. In those days the military was seen as ‘the last resort’ for law and order, discipline, protection of the country and even monopoly of patriotism. Their authoritarianism was seen as a necessary discipline to ‘move the nation forward’ and rescue it from the corruption and political squabbles of the politicians. After spending more than three decades under the military, Nigerians are no longer  naïve about the khaki men even though there is a subliminal fascist  culture among the middle classes and the urban poor for “strong leader” who can discipline the country it is from that reservoir to authoritarianism that Buhari draws some of his antiliberal political instincts are difficult to hide he does not have the personal capacity and political patience to build an inclusive political movement that can challenge Obasanjo’s regime. Similarly his newfound ally, Ojukwu has really passed his sell by date. His rhetoric and charisma continue to wear thin and repackaged from a by-gone era. He has become a rent a quote orator. Neither of them has the kind of royal and solid political base that the late Awolowo used to have. And despite that his belligerent opposition to the central government was contained  throughout his political career.

If there is no threat of military coup and the formal political opposition feeble dos that mean that Obasanjo will have everything his way? Potentially he could be very powerful with a lot of room to deliver a reasonably good government in his second term. Since he is does not seek another term he could actually stop being a lame duck president and concentrate on his historical legacy.

However, the alliance that he presides over can only be held together by power at the centre. The umbrella symbol of his party, PDP, is so broad that it may be a hindrance to any real progress. A situation in which every crooked political baron from all nooks and corners of the country could lay claim to ‘delivering my state’, my ‘constituency’ and expecting reward from Aso Rock may lead to business as usual. The other problem has to do with the jostling for position and power within the PDP and the government by forces loyal to the president and those in the camp of the vice president, Abubakar Atiku.

Obasanjo’s  people may wish their Boda to succeed in leaving a tangible legacy. Whereas those in the VP’s camp may not wish less but will want to retain the umbrella big enough to ensure his succession in 2007. This means that a cull of undesirable elements in the administration new image and confidence of the public may not happen if the individuals concerned are power brokers needed for Atiku’s ambition. The hot topic among politically obsessed Nigerians, journalists and Abuja insiders the last time I was there was not about the various law-suits against the president or the threat of violence but succession speculations. If Obasanjo’s second administration is bedeviled by these maneuvers from the start it will have no time to deliver on any good governance for Nigerians. The opposition may not come from the political parties but certainly from wider sections of the society to transform civilianisation into genuine democratization where the people’s interests really matter above the predatory politics of the elite.

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