My Fellow Gambians,
These are indeed trying times for Gambians in The Gambia, and as a
consequence, Gambians ought to be interested in how they are governed by
their elected officials: they ought to be interested in how their daily
lives are being determined by the politicians who make decisions on their
behalf.
It is important that Gambians follow the news both nationally and
internationally: that they follow the politics of their homeland in terms
of current issues and debates. It is imperative that Gambians take a keen
and watchful interest in how they are being ruled and by whom they are being
ruled.
Folding one’s arms and resigning oneself to fate will save nobody! We have
to confront the issues head on and we have to confront yet again, the poor
leadership of our dear nation.
We also have to follow international issues and affairs since we live in an
inter-dependent and intertwined world. What happens elsewhere in the world
will have an impact on what happens at home.
Gambians must ask critical questions, must listen attentively, must be
vigilant, must examine issues in detail, and must do all these things in
terms of what is best for them both in the present and for the future.
Against this background, Gambians should be particularly interested in the
2003 Budget Speech, even if we are aware that the figures quoted within it
are "cooked", "seasoned" or fabricated.
We have to follow the Budget Speech and try to understand what it contains,
in order to have an idea of how OUR national monies are being spent, and
what the government has in mind for the forthcoming year and beyond. We
also need to check out what the government has spent in our names in the
previous financial year.
In this posting, I intend to simplify and explain the complex financial
language used in the Budget Speech and make it accessible to ordinary
Gambians.
Every Gambian should know the perilous state of our country’s economic
situation, and should be informed of what the government is planning for us
all.
The Shorter Oxford English Dictionary defines the "budget" as "a statement
of the probable revenue and expenditure for the ensuing year, with financial
proposals founded thereon, and annually submitted...sometimes put for the
condition of the national finances as thus disclosed".
For Gambians, this means simply that the Minister of Finance every year will
come up with a financial statement which explains what has been spent in the
past year and which forecasts what will be spent in the coming year. The
Minister of Finance explains how revenue (income) will be utilised for the
country as a whole, and the measures being taken in order to get/secure
revenue (income) for the Government.
The 2003 Budget Speech makes it clear that a substantial amount of revenue
(income) will be raised through heavy increases in taxation. These
increased taxes will put an enormous burden on Gambians and non-Gambians who
are already economically stretched tight. We are all facing a period of
serious belt-tightening.
Even the informal sector has not been spared. Until recently, The Gambia’s
tax base/structure depended on the formal private sector for its annual
financing of the country’s annual budget. This no longer brings the
government sufficient income to pay for its policies, and this year, the
"informal sector" is being expected to make significant contributions to the
country’s "income" through taxation.
Artisans such as tailors, carpenters, mechanics, butchers, builders, cattle
dealers – even hairdressers – are facing harsh tax bills (ranging from
D2,000 to D7,000) and are therefore certain to increase the prices and rates
they charge for their services.
For ordinary Gambians, this will mean making the little they earn, stretch
even further. Prices have sky-rocketed in the last year, and these
forthcoming additional tax burdens are going to dramatically increase prices
of every everyday commodities and services.
We have all read the reports of the Banjul-Serrekunda route price being
pushed up from 4 Dalasis to 7 Dalasis: we hear of Serrekunda town trips
doubling in price from 15 to 30 Dalasis. Clearly, the increase in these
transport charges following the increase in taxes, is going to have a huge
impact on the price of all commodities and services.
Already, the price of bread has increased by a full Dalasi overnight, and
further increases are anticipated. Rice, groundnuts, sugar, candles,
cooking oil – all those essentials of daily life are going to go higher and
higher in price as the tax burdens take their toll. Even the cost of Hajj
is increasing to Dalasis 43,000 from Dalasis 20,000.
Non-Gambians ("Aliens") are now required to pay an increase of more than 100
per cent for their residential permits, of more than 1800 per cent for
identity cards – as well as paying the additional taxes being levied on them
as workers/artisans in The Gambia.
Even a simple driving licence now costs twice as much now at 300 Dalasis.
The end result of all these additional taxes will be that Gambians will pay
more for EVERYTHING as our non-Gambian brothers and sisters struggle to meet
these hugely-increased charges.
The increase in the price of petroleum and petroleum products is worrying
indeed. A litre of petrol has gone up from D10.50 to D15, and diesel fuel
from D9.50 to D12. Again, these price rises are going to be reflected in
the prices of all commodities in The Gambia.
I have reliably learned from a senior government official in State House
that further increases in the petroleum tax (and therefore in the price of
petroleum products) can be expected before March. I am informed that Yayha
Jammeh believes that the current petroleum tax is far too low! Let him tell
that to Gambians in the street!
I have also been informed by a highly-placed and extremely reliable Western
Diplomatic source in The Gambia, that the rise in tax for commercial
vehicles (including taxis) is massive.
Famara Jatta refused to quote the exact amount of the rise in his Budget
Speech, for fear of violent reactions: instead, he has asked taxi, lorry
and tanker owners to go personally to the Tax Office to find out how much
they have to pay.
For those Gambians fortunate enough to be in employment, the price and tax
increases are going to put massive stress on already empty pockets. But let
us not forget that the unemployment rate in The Gambia is enormous. How on
earth are the unemployed going to face the dramatic increase in prices of
every daily necessity ? We do not need to be economic whiz kids to know
that there is going to be terrible suffering in our small country.
When we read of some governmental pensioners receiving only D8.50 MONTHLY,
we may all shake our heads in disbelief: imagine the daily reality for
these poor souls struggling to survive. Poverty affects all but the riches
Gambians: ABJECT poverty affects more than 70 per cent (and some people
would put this percentage at an even higher rate) of our population.
This terrible economic disaster facing ordinary Gambians and non-Gambians
living in The Gambia should also be set against a background of rapidly
rising national debt. In the Budget Speech, Famara Jatta quotes the
national debt at a staggering US$ 601 million!! This compares with the 1994
figure of a little over US$300 million – a doubling of our national debt
burden in a short 8 year period. God help us all !!
To service this level of national debt (that is, to pay the interest on the
debt) cost us Dalasis 286.5 million in 2002. In 2001, this figure stood at
Dalasis 224.6 million. This represents an increase of more than Dalasis 60
million in one year alone. Once more I pray, God help us all !!
We all know that the crops of 2002 suffered through drought and through poor
quality seeds: Jatta tells us that there was a drop of almost 7% in our
total agricultural output (and for our groundnut crop, the drop was even
worse at 12%). We are informed that crop production is further expected to
decline by almost 11 per cent. Again, I pray, God help us all !!
Our trade balance deficit is continuing on its upward rise: we continue to
import more than we export (or re-export). For 2002, imports were valued at
Dalasis 2,947.6 million, while exports stood at Dalasis 417.5 million. This
is a staggering deficit and the forecasts for the future do not fill us with
any optimism. Once more, God help us all !!
Currency reserves held by the commercial banks have fallen below the
statutory requirements by more than 10%. The underpinning of our economy is
shaky beyond belief. God help us all !!
Jammeh’s government which seized power in the name of "transparency" and
"accountability" has presented the country with a budget which is anything
but transparent. Indeed, there are attempts to make it difficult, if not
impossible, to compare figures from previous years’ with this year’s
figures. For instance, one of my sources in The Gambia has pointed me to
Annex 1 of the Budget Speech (Sectoral Allocation).
The classification/categorisation for the two tables in this section are
completely different, making it exceptionally difficult to make a
year-on-year comparison. For those economists amongst us, my source
recommends a careful look at the section entitled "Others" in Annex 1. As
he says, "everything appears to be out of line with what is expected".
The actual figures being quoted in the Budget Speech will need to be
meticulously analysed for inaccuracies and for deliberate misquotes.
In my recent messages to all Gambians, I have painted a picture of economic
decline and economic gloom. Now this 2003 Budget Speech makes me even more
despondent about the state of my dear country, and its future.
What is sure, is that ordinary Gambians are going to suffer as they have
never suffered before. There will be increased hunger: there will be
increased unemployment; there will be more crime as people are pushed even
further against the wall of want; there will be further deterioration in
our health and education sectors. There will not be one segment of Gambian
life which is not squeezed and put under enormous stress and strain.
Let us pray for the demise of the APRC government and its terrible
Ministers: let us pray for the downfall of the architect of our country’s
misery, Yahya Jammeh.
God help our Gambia.
Ebrima Ceesay
Birmingham, UK
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