If there is anything worth applauding in this budget it is the honest of SOS
Jatta. His presentation of the reality of the bleak state of our economy
without any mincing of economic jargons is a novelty. He has clearly
acknowledged the fact that the debt is spiralling to a point that is no
longer tenable hence action is required to redress the imbalance. The only
thing he failed to botray is the route out of this predicament, it would
have been exciting had he addressed issues of bureaucratic wastage and lack
of an efficient tax collection mechanism. It is obvious that the country is
losing a lot of revenue due ineffiency.
I also would want the emphasis of developement to shift from service
provison to linking agriculture to small scale industries hence enhancing a
potential tha actually exist. The productive base of the economy must be
broadened so as to accomodate or create a catalyst to diversification an
export oriented economy. At the moment the economy is over-burdened with
importation of commodities hence the constant shortage of foreign exchange
and consequently chronic trade and budget deficits. To counter such a
negative imbalance real measures and not academic ones must be put in place
to resurect our ailing economy.
Failure to take drastic and realistic measures could lead to the Argentenian
scenario, after all no one is immune from such a scenario, as long as we
continue to rely on other people's money for our development. If any lessons
are to be drawn from SOS Jatta's budget it is that we should strive to
conceive of policies that will free us from dependency. With both the human
as well as agricultural resources at our disposal the potential is there.
All we need now is imagination and the political will. After all development
is  not a matter of pressenting empty project proposals but the
implimentation of realistic programmes designed to impact positively on the
lives of the people. In Gambia we have experts in project designers, over
the years this has been a mechanism through which funds were generated only
to be squandered. I hope the budget next year would not be as bleak as this
one for it is through comparing and contrasting can we measure progress.

>From: "Katim S. Touray" <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list
><[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: The 2002 budget
>Date: Sun, 30 Dec 2001 21:15:07 -0800
>
>Hi folks,
>
>As I promised, I'd like to share with you some of my thoughts on the 2002
>budget
>recently tabled by SOS for Finance, Mr. Jatta, before our National
>Assembly.  I must
>say, right off the bat, that I am disappointed that some people decided to
>write off
>the budget (in some cases without even reading it).  I think this is very
>unhealthy,
>and does not give due respect to the business of having serious and
>enlightened
>debates about our nation's affairs.  No matter how much we disagree with
>the present
>government, we owe it to the country to carefully consider what they have
>to say and
>offer before jumping into mindless criticism.  Having said that, let me say
>a few
>things about the budget.
>
>First, I must say that the budge was sober reading.  I think both it's tone
>and
>content were serious, and often very frank.  On governance, the SOS stated
>(section
>X. Governance Issues): "We are cognisant of the fact that good governance
>is an
>essential complement to sound economic policies."  Later in the same
>paragraph, SOS
>Jatta said:  "We cannot do it all alone, that's why we need the
>collaborative efforts
>of all stakeholders in societal development."
>
>And I say "Halleluiah!"  Finally, it seems the Jammeh government has
>realized the
>obvious:  it's either they conform to internationally-acceptable norms of
>governance,
>or they will remain isolated pariahs, and worse, ruin our country in the
>process.
>This change of mind (and hopefully of heart) has to be commended,
>especially coming
>from a government known more for arrogance than open-mindedness.
>
>I won't bore you by commenting on every bit and piece of the budget, but
>I'd like to
>touch on a few issues such as the present state of the Gambian economy, and
>some
>proposed policies.  According to SOS Jatta, while sub-Saharan Africa is
>projected to
>enjoy a modest 3.8% in output in 2001, the real Gross Domestic Product
>(GDP) of The
>Gambia is set to grow by 4.6% for the 2001 calendar year.  This means that
>we are
>doing much better than the average sub-Saharan African country, and one can
>only hope
>that we build on this.
>
>Despite the above positive development, there are disturbing issues that
>loom large
>over the Gambian economy.  In particular, the ballooning national debt, the
>budget
>deficit, lack of investor confidence, and declining terms of terms of trade
>all pose
>significant threats to the meager gains that have been made, and can most
>certainly
>deter any future progress.  According to SOS Jatta, our national debt
>increased 11%
>in 5 years, and now stands at $378 million.  The SOS said that the steep
>increase in
>our national debt was to finance new projects, and one can only hope that
>these
>projects start yielding dividends to pay for the loans - and then some.
>
>The government's fiscal deficit is, according to SOS Jatta, expected to be
>contained
>at about 4.6% of the GDP, excluding funding for a NAWEC generator.  I hope
>they are
>keeping an eye on the deficit because if left unchecked, it could stifle
>the growth
>of the business sector, and small businesses especially.  This is because
>part of the
>budget deficit is financed from the domestic financial markets, resulting
>in
>increased interest rates for bank loans. Besides, you can bet that banks
>will rather
>lend a government than a small business.  It is thus not surprising that,
>according
>to SOS Jatta, some Gambian banks have tightened their lending policies,
>resulting in
>the total loans given out falling by 4.4%
>
>Another issue SOS Jatta touched on was the lack of investor confidence in
>the
>domestic economy.  According to SOS Jatta, this investor pessimism
>contributed to the
>significant decline in short-term capital..  I think it would have been
>more accurate
>to say that investors were pessimistic about the manner in which the
>Gambian economy
>was being handled.
>
>With regards the planned expenditures and programs, I would like to say
>that I found
>some encouraging signs in the budget.  In particular, I am encouraged that
>the
>government has a new Directorate of Science and Technology Education, and
>further,
>will equip most Senior Secondary Schools with computer labs.  Other new
>programs I am
>looking forward to hearing more about in the future include The Gambia
>Investment
>Promotion Act, and the Trade Gateway Project.  SOS Jatta also discussed the
>government's plans to increase the Internet gateway bandwidth, boost the
>manufacturing sector, and enhance the development of small and medium
>businesses in
>The Gambia.  I sincerely hope these projects come to fruition.
>
>On the negative side, I would like to point out that it is ill-advised and
>counterproductive to finance a Sports Development Fund with money from the
>Tobacco
>Advert Levy.  We all know that the tobacco companies are heavily promoting
>smoking in
>developing countries to make up for their declining markets in developing
>countries.
>It is incomprehensible to me why The Gambia government would tolerate
>advertising of
>tobacco products, not to mention using such advertising as a money-making
>tool.  I
>suggest they revoke this policy, and ban the advertising of tobacco
>products in the
>Gambia.
>
>I also find it disturbing that just when I thought we were finally getting
>our act
>together by launching a National Council for Arts and Culture (NCAC), the
>government
>decides to saddle the organization with the operation and upkeep of Arch
>22.  This is
>ridiculous.  What, besides president Jammeh's ego, makes Arch 22 worthy of
>being
>declared a national monument?  Further, if this government had to face the
>whims of
>the democratic process, Arch 22 should face market forces.  The arch should
>be
>incorporated as an entity (non-profit or not), and made to pay for it's
>upkeep with
>revenue it generates.  And if it cannot generate enough revenue for it's
>upkeep, then
>it's "bye, bye Arch 22."  It should be that simple.
>
>This e-mail is getting to be rather long, but before I end it, I'd also
>like to
>briefly discuss the budget from a historical perspective.  If you think the
>budget is
>interesting reading, let me tell you that it's even more so when considered
>in light
>of the past.  While I was going through my papers a few days ago, I
>stumbled into a
>copy of the 1970/71 budget presented to parliament on July 1, 1970 by the
>then Vice
>President and Minister of Finance, S. M. Dibba.
>
>I also found a copy of "Sessional Paper No. 1 of 1966: Revision of the
>Development
>Programme 1964/1967."  The paper reviewed progress made on The Gambia
>government's
>Jan. 1964 to Jun. 1967 Development Programme, which was published as
>Sessional Paper
>No. 10 of 1964.  Sessional Paper No. 1 of 1966 has an appendix consisting
>of the
>introduction section from Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1964, which had gone
>out of print
>by 1966.  Reading both papers, and the 2002 budget was very revealing, and
>I'd like
>to share some thoughts with you.
>
>First, the introduction of Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1964 points out that
>The Gambia
>was one of the first African countries to prepare a "Development Plan",
>issued in
>1943.  That plan was not, however, thought of as comprehensive enough, and
>in 1962,
>the Gambia government decided to produce a plan to better integrate the
>activities of
>the government and the private sector.  These efforts culminated in an
>April 1963
>sketch plan, which was used as the basis for the 1964 Development Fund
>Estimates of
>the Government.
>
>In light of preparations for The Gambia's independence from Britain, the
>sketch plan
>was replaced by an interim expenditure programme, covering a 3.5 year-span
>starting
>from Jan. 1, 1964.  It is interesting to note that 1967 was the year that
>the Gambia
>changed the fiscal year's start from January to July, and the present
>government
>recently changed back again to a fiscal year starting in January.  I
>probably should,
>one of these days, provide a summary of this important paper, which raises
>some very
>interesting points.
>
>It was particularly interesting to compare the Jatta and Dibba budgets.  In
>the
>30-odd years between the two budgets, a lot has happened in The Gambia.
>However, as
>the saying goes, the more things change, the more they remain the same, and
>certainly
>the Gambia's economic development efforts are no different in this regard.
>Thus, the
>budget deficit and trade deficit was a concern in Dibba's 1970 budget, just
>as it is
>in Jatta's 2002 budget.  In 1970, Mr. Dibba pointed out that the domestic
>public debt
>was not more than 0.9% of our national recurrent expenditure, and cost less
>than 1%
>of our annual revenue earnings.  In contrast, SOS Jatta pointed out in his
>budget
>speech that  23% of government expenditures between Jan. and Oct., 2001 was
>on
>interest payments, and the deficit was targeted to reach 3.6% in 2002.
>
>Another interesting comparison is that while Mr. Dibba said in his 1970
>budget speech
>that for the third year in a row the Gambia would not need to seek British
>budgetary
>aid, D247 million (or almost 18%) of the D1.4 billion projected revenue for
>2002 will
>come from grants.  Similarly, while Mr. Dibba mentioned in his 1970 budget
>speech
>that our in July, 1969, our external reserves were enough to cover seven
>months of
>imports, in September 2001, the reserves only covered 5.2 months of
>imports,
>according to SOS Jatta.
>
>Before I wrap this up, I must mention that I found reading Mr. Dibba's
>budget very
>nostalgic.  It discussed the introduction of the "Dalasy" (what happened to
>the
>"y"?), the decimal currency system, the lime project, Phase I of the Yundum
>airport
>project, and the then "Bathurst" Port.  I remember in particular the HUGE
>problem I
>had understanding the decimal currency system when it was taught us at
>Armitage
>school.  I never understood what the teacher was talking about.  My
>salvation was the
>conversion chart in the notice board to the right of the door into the
>Assembly Hall
>(the door on your right, by the Vice Principal's office, as you enter the
>hall from
>the west).  There I was looking at the chart, and all of a sudden, it
>clicked!  I had
>my Eureka! moment right there.
>
>I could have gone on and on comparing and contrasting the 1970 and 2002
>budgets, but
>I think what I've said so far will do for now.  Besides, since I started
>writing this
>e-mail, I've cooked my "Benachin", ate it, and as result, my brain is now
>shutting
>down (laugh.)  So I'll stop here for now, and let others have a go at the
>budget.  By
>the way, I only wish that an alternative 'peoples' budget.  Something less
>technical
>than what was presented by SOS Jatta would have helped a lot of people
>better
>understand what the budget was all about, and help enrich the debate and
>the dialog.
>
>I guess that's about it!  Have a great week, and best wishes to all for a
>HAPPY and
>PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!!
>
>Katim
>
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