Replying to my own posting, I have further information on this topic:
Here is the actual text of Dr. Quinn's report on that study:
====================
Viral Load and Risk of Heterosexual Transmission of HIV-1 among
Sexual Partners
T. C. QUINN*, M. J. WAWER, N. SEWANKAMBO, D. SERWADDA, C. J. LI,
F.
WABWIRE-MANGEN, M. MEEHAN, T. LUTALO, and R. H. GRAY* NIAID.
Johns Hopkins
Univ., Baltimore, MD; Columbia Univ., New York, NY; Makerere Univ.,
Rakai
Project Team, Uganda
Objective: To determine the effect of viral load on the risk of
heterosexual transmission of HIV, 415 HIV-discordant
(HIV-positive/HIV-negative) couples were followed over a 30-month
period in a study of 15,127 people in Rakai district, Uganda. Incidence of
transmission and acquisition/100 person-years (py) were determined in
relation to HIV viral load, sociodemographic and behavioral
characteristics, and active STDs.
Results: The male partner was HIV infected in 228 (55%) and the female
was HIV positive in 187 (45%). 90 (21.7%) of 415 discordant couples
seroconverted (incidence 11.8/100 py). The transmission rate from
males to females was 12.0/100 py and not statistically different from
female-to-male transmission (11.6/100 py). Incidence was highest among
15 to 19-year-olds (15.2/100 py) and among uncircumcised males
(16.7/100 py); no seroconversions occurred in circumcised males
(p<0.0001). Mean viral load was significantly higher in transmitters vs.
non-transmitters (90,254 vs. 38,029; p=0.01). There was a dose
response of higher transmission with increasing viral load (p<0.0001),
with no transmissions <1500 copies/mL, and up to 23.0/100 py for a viral
load >50,000 copies/ml. In multivariate analyses, HIV viral load was the
major predictor of HIV risk; each log10increment in viral load was
associated with a 2.45-fold increased risk of transmission (95% CI
1.85*3.26).
Conclusion: HIV-1 viral load was the major predictor of heterosexual
transmission, with no differences by gender. However, circumcision
among men reduced risks of acquisition. With no transmissions at viral
loads <1500 copies/ml, reductions in viral load with antiretrovirals or
vaccines may reduce transmission of HIV-1.
============================
The entire conference data is available at
http://www.retroconference.org/.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE:
other factors must be taken into account (than circumcision & viral load)
and what the other environmental and hygienic circumstances that
resulted in these228 males infected with the virus must also be studied.
At best, (as indicated in his conclusions) one can agree that in this
particular study and among this particular group of individuals in Uganda,
"circumcision among men reduced risks of acquisition" but there is a far
cry from "reduced risk" to "protects" as in the news release.
I think we do need to be clear that we should avoid advocating a clear
misinformation such as "Circumcision protects men from HIV" and I
further hope no 13 year old boy gets that news release and think for a
second that since he is circumcised, he is "protected" from HIV and can
do whatever he likes.
>>> Tony Cisse <[log in to unmask]> 3/February/2000
04:34pm >>>
Jaajef wa G-L,
I recieved this through another mailing list and thought it was interesting
enough to pass on...
Yeenduleen ak jaama
Tony
>
>
>> Assalamualaikum,
>>
>> May I inform you about a press-release which reads:
>>
>> Circumcision protects men from HIV
>>
>> Circumcision may somehow protect men from sexual transmission of
the
>> AIDS virus, researchers said on Sunday, but they admitted they do
>> not have a clue why.
>
> A study in Uganda aimed at examining how couples infect one another
> found two things which seemed to protect people - being older and
> being circumcised.
>
> "Acquisition of HIV did not occur in any of the circumcised men" Dr.
> Thomas Quinn of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, who led the
> study, told the 7th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic
> Infections, a meeting of AIDS researchers.
>
> "Age, independent of viral load, appeared to have a protective effect"
> Quinn added.
>
> The highest transmission rate was in people 15 to 29 years old.
> Quinn's team, working with 15.000 people in the Rakai district of
> Uganda, also found that people did not pass on the virus to their
> partners if they had a naturally low level of HIV in the blood - 1,500
> copies according to standard measures. He found that the more virus
> people had in their blood, the more likely they were to pass it on.
> There were no differences in women infecting men or men infecting
> women. Quinn said his team was one of the first to actually go out and
> test the idea where HIV is raging the worst. More than 23 million
> people in sub-Saharan Africa are infected with HIV. The findings might
> suggest ways of stemming the epidemic. Telling people to abstain from
> sex or use condoms has not worked, and the drugs that keep the virus
> at bay in some patients in rich countries are not available in the
> poor countries hardest hit by the epidemic.
> But the study suggests that using drugs to keep the virus at lower
> levels, or a vaccine that might do the same without quite curing a
> patient, might help.
>
> Quinn said he was at a loss to explain why circumcision might affect a
> man's risk of being infected by a woman. He noted that in his team's
> study, only Muslims were circumcised. He said there might be some
> cultural differences in the timing or frequency of sex, or perhaps
> being circumcised might go hand in hand with other practices that
> would somehow protect a man from infection."
>
> End of article.
>
> Allah knows best. In the Qur'an is Healing. Those who follow the
> Qur'an and the Sunnah of the Prophet Pbuh have nothing to fear nor
> shall they grieve.
> Salaams, Rehana
>
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