Beran Jeng, Thanks for your posting on the prospects of African economies. Below, the same World Bank has painted a slightly optimistic view of the prospects. As for the future role of the African Development Bank, I am one of those who believe in giving regional Banks a greater say in the management of our economies. This issue will be taken up during the course of the discussion of the Meltzer Report, an subject commented on on the L by Hamjatta and Basil to name but a few. World Bank sees better days ahead for Africa by Nathaniel Harrison WASHINGTON, May 31 (AFP) - The World Bank on Wednesday predicted better days ahead for Africa, where despite dire poverty, military conflict and the scourge of HIV/AIDS, economic momentum is gathering steam and political processes are opening up. "Africa has huge challenges but the good news is that in the past five years growth rates in these countries have been picking up and we are beginning to see greater participation and democratization in African countries," said Callisto Madavo, bank vice president for Africa. "People are more concerned about corruption and are holding their governments accountable. All this is very encouraging and paving the way for Africa's development." Madavo was speaking here at launch of a new African survey that the bank prepared with four other agencies, the African Development Bank, the African Economic Research Consortium, the Global Coalition for Africa and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Bank officials, noting the turmoil in Sierra Leone and the Ethopia- Eritrea border war, agreed that the news from Africa in recent weeks had been particularly gloomy. But according to Alan Gelb, World Bank chief economist for Africa, this latest survey is more optimistic than previous bank studies for three reasons -- political change, the end of the Cold War and the possibilities held out by information technology. He said political change on the continent south of the Sahara, where 42 of 48 countries have held multiparty elections since the early 1990s, has exposed governments to new voices and "new ways of doing business." With the end of the Cold War, Gelb said, "there's much more interest in donor countries in supporting effective development partners rather than, as it was in decades past, supporting trusted allies." In addition, thanks to advances in information technology, "it is now possible to extend communications and information across Africa," providing increasing numbers of people with critical health and scientific data. The report also challenges the notion that conflict in Africa is intractable and unique, rooted in ancient ethnic hatreds. "The report draws on recent research which shows that there are very strong relationships between development factors and the propensity for conflict," according to Gelb. "Once these are taken into account, Africa is no different from anywhere else in the world. The ethnic dimension is not an inevitable and irremediable cause for conflict." Among factors contributing to strife in Africa Gelb cited poverty, the marginalization of large segments of society, friction stemming from an excessive reliance on natural resources and a lack of employment opportunities, "which means that the opportunity costs to young men going off to war are very low." For Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah of the Global Coalition for Africa, "whether it is Rwanda or Kosovo or Guatemala, the real cause of conflict is political leadership. It's the leadership that creates a program of exclusion." While essentially optimistic in tone, the survey offers some stark statistics on the scope of the challenge facing African authorities and their supporters in the industrialized world. Average per capita income in Africa is lower today than it was in the 1960s, the region's total output barely exceeds that of Belgium, excluding South Africa the continent has fewer roads than Poland, its share of world trade has declined steadily in the past 30 years to just two percent. Africa also accounts for 70 percent of the world's AIDS cases, which are expected to reduce life expectancy by up to 20 years from current levels. Nevertheless, according to the survey, "all indicators show that (economic) performance improved in the second half of the 1990s." In the typical African country growth came to about 4.3 percent from 1994-1998. But the study predicted that sub-Saharan Africa would have to grow by five percent a year just to keep the number of poor people from increasing and by more than seven percent if the number of those in extreme poverty were to be halved by 2015. "Although the challenges facing Africa may seem insurmountable," said Gelb, "the continent has enormous untapped potential and hidden growth reserves. "The development process is cumulative, with success in one area opening up opportunities in others." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html ----------------------------------------------------------------------------