---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2000 16:39:03 -0500 From: Robyn Michaels <[log in to unmask]> Reply-To: [log in to unmask] To: Africa Matters <[log in to unmask]>, ESC Mosley <[log in to unmask]>, James Carlton <[log in to unmask]> Subject: [AfricaMatters] Fw: ISID LIST: FW: U.S. Presidential Election: What's in It for Africa? -----Original Message----- From: Aida Olkkonen <[log in to unmask]> To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]> Date: Friday, August 18, 2000 3:24 PM Subject: ISID LIST: FW: U.S. Presidential Election: What's in It for Africa? >This is a message to the ISID listserve. To respond to the group, please hit reply. To respond to the individual sending this e-mail, please do not hit reply, but instead copy their e-mail address which is on the "From:" line. >_____________________________ > > >> US Presidential Election: What's in It for Africa? >> Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg) >> >> OPINION AND ANALYSIS >> August 18, 2000 >> >> John Stremlau >> Johannesburg >> >> Political pundits across the United States predict a very close >> presidential >> election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush on November >> 7. >> >> Equally important and also too close to call are several local campaigns >> that >> will determine which party controls the US Congress. All 435 seats of the >> House of Representatives will be contested and a net loss of just six >> seats >> would end the Republican majority. Democrats could also take charge of the >> 100-member Senate with a net gain of four, although with only a third of >> the >> upper chamber up for election Republicans are expected to retain a slim >> majority. >> >> African leaders may ask so what? Will any conceivable outcome alter >> current US >> foreign policy in ways that will affect Africa? Calculations of Africa's >> stakes in the US elections should begin by acknowledging three political >> realities. >> >> First, foreign policy really does not matter to most Americans. With the >> Cold >> War over and the US enjoying the longest period of uninterrupted economic >> growth in its history, international issues so far have barely been >> mentioned >> by any of the candidates because opinion polls repeatedly reveal that >> voters >> are not interested. When Bush outlined his vision for leading America in >> accepting the Republican nomination on August 10, only 3% of his text >> dealt >> with foreign affairs and essentially was a pledge to strengthen the US >> military. >> >> Vice-President Al Gore is more expert on world affairs and refers to >> President >> Thabo Mbeki as a good friend. But his running mate, Senator Joseph >> Lieberman, >> is well- known for his severe criticisms of the Clinton administration's >> handling of Russia, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo and East Timor. As Carnegie >> Endowment >> political analyst Robert Kagan dryly notes, Lieberman's selection suggests >> "foreign policy is irrelevant to today's politics". >> >> Second, both presidential candidates are saying almost nothing about >> Africa. >> The Council on Foreign Relations in New York has tracked all of their >> speeches, recorded interviews and campaign debates. Bush has mentioned >> Africa >> three times, most recently on February 16. In each case he responded to >> similar questions by declaring US armed forces should not have been used >> to >> quell the 1994 Rwanda genocide because it did not "fit into the national >> strategic interests". >> >> Gore has touched on African issues seven times since January 1999, >> conceding >> on October 27 last year that "we were tardy in Rwanda". But he seems to >> share >> Bush's opposition to the use of US forces in such circumstances. >> >> In the only extended remarks either has made on Africa, Gore appeared >> before >> the United Nations Security Council on January 10 to appeal for concerted >> international action to fight HIV/Aids. >> >> Surprisingly, an intensifying competition for support among America's 30 >> million people of African descent has not sparked debate about African >> policy. >> >> If the election is close, a high turnout of African-Americans who >> traditionally vote heavily Democratic is vital to Al Gore. So on July 7 he >> delivered an address to the convention of the National Association for the >> Advancement of Colored People appealing for their support. Yet barely 100 >> words were about Africa policy and he dealt only with the imperative to >> combat >> Aids. >> >> The third political reality is the extent of bipartisan support for the >> US's >> current Africa policy, which will likely continue whoever is elected. This >> consensus has been obscured by partisanship in the Congress and with the >> White >> House on other issues, including Clinton's impeachment. The extraordinary >> amount of personal attention paid to Africa by Clinton has also created >> the >> impression that African interests will be much better served should the >> Democrats win both branches of government, as they did in 1992. But in >> three >> areas of interest to Africa - peace, poverty reduction and public health - >> the >> past should be seen as prelude. >> >> In peace operations, Clinton ignited a firestorm of partisan criticism in >> 1993 >> over his handling of Somalia, when 18 US professional soldiers died in >> battle. >> But he defused this domestically by unfairly blaming the UN and committing >> to >> a total US withdrawal. Since then his refusals to be drawn into conflicts >> in >> Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone or anywhere else in Africa have had broad >> bipartisan support. Meanwhile, the administration's African crisis >> response >> initiative, to train African peacekeepers, has been backed by the >> Republicans, >> as has last week's decision to send US forces to train 4 000 Nigerians for >> peace operations in Sierra Leone. Such efforts are bound to continue next >> year, >> whoever wins, but without any direct military engagement. >> >> Regarding poverty alleviation, US development assistance remains the >> lowest >> percentage of gross national product of any industrialised nation and >> neither >> the next president nor leaders in Congress are likely to have the votes >> for >> substantial increases. >> >> Clinton's singular achievement in helping Africa economically was the >> passage >> of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a modest programme for trade >> enhancement, the centrepiece of which would allow Africa's share of the US >> textile market to grow from 0,8% to perhaps 2%. Labour interests within >> his >> own party opposed the Bill, which succeeded only because of strong >> Republican >> backing. America's main economic interests in Africa are in the handful of >> oil- producing countries that account for lll about 85% of lll US trade >> and >> investment with the region. >> >> Democrats and Republicans have been in agreement not to sanction African >> oil >> producers, regardless of their human rights abuses. >> >> A bipartisan Bill to sanction Zimbabwe, where the US has no oil interests, >> for >> President Robert Mugabe's abuses of power, sailed through the Senate in >> June >> and will be politically difficult for any president to oppose. >> >> Finally, the fight against HIV/Aids is one issue of vital importance to >> Africa, where a growing bipartisan agreement to be more helpful will offer >> opportunities for African governments to exert influence regardless of who >> wins in November. Earlier this year Clinton declared HIV/Aids a threat to >> US >> national security. A recent report by the US census bureau of a 36% >> infection >> rate in Botswana, a country long viewed in Washington as an African >> success >> story, is only the latest shock. >> >> Even more alarming are the estimates that South Africa's current rate of >> 20% >> could double by 2010. Last month conservative Republicans joined moderates >> and >> a majority of Democrats in approving extra funds to meet Clinton's >> original >> request of $244-million for Aids for the next fiscal year, an increase of >> more >> than $190-million. >> >> Relative to needs, this amount is still small, but HIV/Aids is one of the >> few >> international issues that is gaining attention in Washington. >> >> For Bush and Gore the fight against HIV/Aids touches themes of compassion, >> family values, community action, education, individual responsibility and >> other values that both are promoting in their campaigns. There are ways to >> involve the US private sector and civil society on an issue that touches >> American social and sexual mores that are sensitive and contentious but >> recognised as increasingly important. No other issue offers African >> leaders as >> great an opportunity to extract financial and material commitments from >> the >> US. It may also be possible to link this campaign to other needs, such as >> debt >> relief and development finance. >> >> Prospects for securing greater US support will also depend on the scale, >> intensity and effectiveness of HIV/Aids prevention programmes that South >> Africa and other affected nations first undertake. >> >> John Stremlau is professor of international relations and head of >> department >> at the University of the Witwatersrand >> >> Copyright © 2000 Mail and Guardian. Distributed by allAfrica.com. 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