KB: I was going to respond to your post yesterday but my postings had reached the daily quota (6) by the time of your last posting. So my responses were rejected by some silly message which informed me that only the list manager was worthy of this privilege ( more than 6 messages). It is extremely refreshing to see you partially emerge from the shell called 'voter buyout'. At least you have acknowledged the possibility of other reasons for the loss. The premise for the buyout theory is extremely shaky for several reasons: 1. The number of absentees was roughly equal to the amount during the parliamentary elections in 1996. That time around, almost 800 voters were absent. The opposition won then. Was there voter buyout then too? Or does this strengthen the 'voter apathy' theory which others have postulated as a reason for low voter turnout? 2. Let's assume that your buyout theory is legitimate for a minute here. Don't you think claiming all 1000 of the absentees to make up for the 800 vote loss is pushing it a bit too far? This would assume a 100% voter turnout, an unprecedented event in the history of The Gambia and the World perhaps. Even if 801 out of the 1000 absentees voted for the UDP resulting in a 1 vote margin for the opposition, a record for voter turnout would be set (over 95%). 3. On the alleged confessions of Baba Jobe and the APRC, we need more hard evidence than a story from Radio Kang Kang. The fact remains that there is no hard evidence which supports these claims. An admission to vote buying by the APRC, would be grounds for the UDP to go to court for the reversal of election results. Why didn't the UDP take up this strategy if there was hard evidence that this was indeed true? You call this irrefutable evidence! And no Jokes from Jobe please. 4. On the thousands of voter card story, it sounds like those extremely frivolous Bantaba or barber's shop topics which have no basis. There are just too many frailties with this story and it would be an absolute waste of time trying to point them out. A school kid of about 12 would be able to figure this one out. 5. The Kebba and Baldeh money exchange deal is a remote possibility. But taking this as gospel is to assume an overwhelming majority of Kiangkas have no integrity or common sense. This is hard to believe because from my experiences in The Gambia, people still do have pride despite the overwhelming amount of poverty there. Nevertheless, this contrived story loses its credibility completely when you state that Kebba, despite being an APRC supporter, was somehow part of the entourage which delivered the pile of uncounted ballots rumored to be in the 1000s to the UDP candidate. And I am accused of speculating here? Let's look at your other reasons for a moment here: Tribalism is not illegal in The Gambia in the same way racism is not illegal in the USA. If your allegations are true, Buba Baldeh lead a dirty campaign but this is nothing new to politics back home. Yahya Jallow (ex-comissioner of Basse) was one of my father's best friends. He is definitely an excellent gentleman and probably would not associate with a party stooped in tribalism. But this is the nature of politics: Dirty campaigns are run and it is up to the opposition to counter these claims with their own effective propaganda. The 'non-developemnt theory' also falls into the same category as the tribalism ploy: Dirty but not illegal. Again, this is not an excuse for a loss in my opinion. The 22nd of July movement excuse is very weak. This movement is known for sneak attacks and they cannot terrorize the people of Kiang without severe repercussions on Baba's boys. I was once privy to what it is like to enter hostile opposition territory. Despite my tender age at the time, the incident sticks clear as day in my mind. I was with my late grandfather, an old PPP stalwart, when we ventured into he main square in Baddibou on a trip upcountry somewhere. It took less than 5 minutes for a hostile crowd to gather and, under desperate barked orders from the old man, the driver made a quick and narrow escape while bricks and stones rained on the PPP marked Land Rover from all directions. A truly terrifying moment! Baba Jobe's boys will probably be in for the same treatment should they drive into these territories. Again, it is amazing that you refuse to entertain the most plausible fact; voter apathy. This has always been a problem associated with Gambian politics judging by the poor voter turnout in past elections including the 1997 one. If as is very likely, this was the reason for low voter turnout, the UDP did not do a great job of preventing this from happening. There are other reasons for the loss which we should also address rather than go with the easy answer: Voter Buyout. The oppositions is doing a disservice to themselves by making such unwarranted allegations and by not doing the necessary analysis and/or efforts required to avoid further defeats like this in the future. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html You may also send subscription requests to [log in to unmask] if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your full name and e-mail address. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------