Hey Folks, I think a better compromise would be what PDOIS suggested ealier. Let the coalition president, if he wins, stay for only one year and organised a truely democratic election where every party will be free to participate. LPF Manneh >From: Yusupha C Jow <[log in to unmask]> >Reply-To: The Gambia and related-issues mailing list ><[log in to unmask]> >To: [log in to unmask] >Subject: The NCP Needs To Be Reengaged >Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 19:26:03 EDT > >I sincerely hope that there is time, though not much, for the NCP to >reconsider her current position and perhaps allow for a renegotiation with >the Alliance as it is currently composed. > >The Alliance, instead of drawing lines in the sand and sharpening their >swords in preparation for a war of words with the NCP, should make an all >out >effort to re-invite S.M. Dibba and his party back to the negotiating table >in >the hopes of forging a compromise which would ensure the NCP's direct >involvement in the Alliance. > >The same goes for the NCP. However, from the aforementioned press release, >it >appears the NCP is trying to avoid the kind of strife which will create >more >schisms between themselves and the Alliance. This is a very encouraging >development which should be used as a foundation for future negotiations >towards a more widely encompassing Alliance. > >The NCP and the Alliance should both realize that this arrangement, as >presently comprised, will simply not suffice when it comes to defeating the >APRC soundly come October. At first, I, like many, was of the opinion that >the NCP's absence would not really hinder the Opposition's chances of >winning >in October. But, the closer I peeked, the more it became evident that is >not >the case. > >Before the advent of the barbarians and butchers in power, the NCP was the >main opposition party in The Gambia. During the last general elections >before the advent of the APRC, the NCP garnered about 36% of the total >vote. >Coincidentally, this is approximately the same percentage of votes which >the >UDP garnered during the last post-APRC general elections. > >Similarities aside, these statistics show that, before the advent of the >APRC, the NCP was a force to be reckoned with in the Gambian political >landscape, and this leads to the million dollar question: Where did all the >NCP supporters go after Decree 89 was passed? > >Some of them joined the ranks of the APRC, while the majority of their >supporters joined the then newly formed UDP party. To buttress my point, I >shall point to the fact that in both parliamentary and general elections >held >in formerly strong NCP strongholds, such as Bakau and Baddibou, the results >still favored the Opposition in the UDP. > >Former PPP supporters, on the other hand, mostly joined the ranks of the >APRC >after Decree 89. Save for a few constituencies, previous PPP strongholds, >i.e., most of the country, have now become APRC controlled regions. It is >also to be assumed that some former PPP supporters did vote for the UDP, >but >those were probably few and far between, for, to their credit, the APRC did >a >good job of attracting supporters who were previously loyal to the former >ruling party. > >The phenomenon which occurred after Decree 89 was the biggest realignment >of >political affiliations in post-independence Gambian history, and this was >solely caused by advent of the APRC, which led to the infamous Decree. So, >we know that Yahya was the cause of this occurrence, but what about its >implications as it relates to the events of August 13 ? > >Well, as I see it, another realignment of political affiliations is taking >place as we speak and depending on the outcome of future Alliance >negotiations, these changes in party affiliations shall continue to morph. > >As a result of the NCP''s current position of refusing to join the >Alliance, >the Opposition's core, formerly that of the NCP, will fragment because a >considerable portion will repledge their alliances to the NCP and S.M. >Dibba. > This said, it will be more difficult to ascertain the portion of UDP >supporters that will be lost because of this shift of alliances. But going >by the strong support the NCP once enjoyed in previous presidential >elections, that loss might be sizable enough to effectively scuttle the >Alliance's hopes for a victory in October. Possibly, the small portion of >former NCP voters who cast their ballots for the APRC during the last >election might similarly jump ship, but most likely this particular >migration >of supporters will only amount to a few percent of the APRC vote, hardly >enough to make a sizable dent in their fortunes. > >The PPP, by virtue of their participation in the Alliance, will probably >not >be a direct cause for the polarization of UDP's supporter base. Their >reemergence in the political arena will mean some of its former supporters >will shift their allegiances from the APRC to the Alliance. But, again, >getting a determination an approximate number is tough. Regardless, at >this >rate, this shift will probably go towards offsetting the loss of voters >created by the polarizing effect caused by the NCP's refusal to go with the >Alliance. > >Please note that PDOIS and the GPP are conspicuously absent from my >summation. I must say that I greatly admire PDOIS whose strategies and >principles, being the best ones out there, can surely move our country >forward. Nevertheless, there impact in terms of numbers is negligible when >compared to, say, a PPP, NCP, or UDP. The same applies to the GPP even >though Hassan Musa Camara has been designated elder statesman of the >Alliance. This is not to say that PDOIS' or GPP's involvement in this >Alliance is not welcome, a few percentage points might make all the >difference this time around and thus they might make the difference, but in >the grand scheme of things the NCP is currently the bigger fish to fry. > >So we have it folks: Nothing but a wider Alliance which includes the NCP >will >suffice. This is not the time for divisive politics. Personal egos, >finger >pointing and a war of words will only further turn off voters who might >have >otherwise voted for the Alliance, NCP or PDOIS. Dibba needs to be >reengaged >and this way good will surely triumph over evil. > >-Jah Lives, >Yus > >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L >Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html >You may also send subscription requests to >[log in to unmask] >if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your >full name and e-mail address. >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html You may also send subscription requests to [log in to unmask] if you have problems accessing the web interface and remember to write your full name and e-mail address. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------