Musa, That was a very good piece. I certainly believe that the APRC will win against the opposition not because it is very disorganized, but was never organized. And the APRC have succeeded in changing a lot of heart of those who matters, the electorate. Sure the oppostion could probably become more competetive with some organization but not as it is. The break away of Juwara once again from another party speaks a volume. Jumping from one opposition to another and continue to divide like cells, cannot be good for the opposition. It certainly is good news to the APRC. And I must commend the APRC for making that possible to ther advantage. On what would happen if the leadership of the APRC changed, I have a sense of feeling that it might be another PPP. Sometimes, I feel that it might be in a different way. None of the parties are stronger without their leaders and that has to do with how politcs is done.That is the art of politics. Any non-leader who try to surface higher than the current leader shows some weakness of that leader.And this goes to every party in this world. So it might appear that the APRC might disintegrate without President Jammeh, but someone might come after him who might even revive the party more than he is doing. The only party I feel might look the same with or without their present leader in the Gambia is PDOIS. They have such a strong foundation which could not grow beyond its borders. And I think this is why they are not electable. For OJ to take over as the party leader of the UDP will be the most disastrous move that party could do. Leadership is to be proud but not arrogant. Ousman Jallow Bojang. Original Message: ----------------- From: Musa Jeng [log in to unmask] Date: Sun, 10 Nov 2002 21:01:15 -0500 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: political punditry from a far Political punditry from afar: It is a reality to say that if elections were to be held today, more than likely the APRC would win. This is not to imply that elections gone by were free and fair, but with the unprepared ness of the opposition, the incumbency status of the ruling party, and even the doom and gloom of the economic situation will not tilt the election for the opposition. The question becomes, what needs to be done by the different political parties to get their house in order to become very competitive, and at the same time to have a major positive impact in bringing about an entrenched political system? The major opposition party has suffered a set back, and as it is, it would take a miracle for UDP to win with Darboe at the helm. What is also a political reality, both UDP and what left of the PPP party has been engaged in a tango dance that might have given them some advantages, but the union is still seen as their commonality in their opposition to the APRC. Well, maybe it is time to make it a political reality, and revisit the strength of each party and make it one. In addition, by refocusing on each party’s weaknesses would help in charting a new beginning for the alliance. The PPP has always been Jawara’s party, the ex leader has become lot more of a political liability, and the demography of the political landscape has diminished any coattail from the ex-president. In fact most of the Gambian electorate today were not born to remember the hey days of the PPP. For OJ Jallow, a political stalwart that has gathered so much political capital cannot afford to squander it, and should use it to establish hi UDP has to make some total overhaul in order to remain competitive, and to be able to pose any chance of winning the Presidency. A new UDP party with OJ at the helm would bring the temporary tango dance to an end and would definitely incorporate their resources and support base on a permanent journey. On the next political punditry from a far, I would attempt to illustrate what radical move is there for PDOIS to expand its support base and be seen as a party that can actually win elections and the presidency, and what would Isatou Njie Saidy leadership to the APRC, instead of Yaya would do to the APRC as we know it. Thanks Musa Jeng ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://mail2web.com/ . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~