Opinion Time for critical surgery By Alasana JK Njie (Cert, PG Dip, BA (HONS) May 12, 2004, 13:05 Today, no one will deny that we are having problems in the country. Facts on the ground are testament to this. While it may not be on the scale which involves a crisis of the financial system, every Gambian is hard hit, whether one is in or outside of the country. I believe it is the wish of every Gambian abroad, for a peaceful and progressive Gambia, regardless of who are in government. However, it is all too easy to label those abroad as anti-government, by those who are not comfortable with what is being written about, when one expresses his or her views. This couldn't be further from the truth. All we care for is an economically progressive Gambia and Gambians. Diverse views, healthy debates about issues that matter and willingness to listen and put politics and party loyalty aside and work together for the good of this country, is what will take this beautiful country forward, especially in times of difficulties of this magnitude and severity. It fills me with deep sympathy, reading and hearing how difficult it is for ordinary and grassroots Gambians, simply because they can barely afford vital daily food items. How do we expect someone with an average monthly salary of about D750 to D800, to feed a family of five or more people, when the price of a bag of rice ranges between D500 and D650. The rate of inflation in the country is horrifying beyond belief. Prices of vital daily commodities have more than trebled over the past four years, while monthly salaries remain virtually the same for the majority of hard working Gambians. One doesn't need to be a Rocket Scientist to know that with a rate of inflation of between 20 to 30 per cent and average yearly salary rises of about 5 per cent is unsustainable for the ordinary Gambian, except of course for the looting politician. It is more worrying for those who earn no salary but instead depend on seasonal subsistence food production. Things have apparently turned for the worse over the years and I believe it amounts to betrayal and an insult, for politicians to sit in their cosy offices and describe the situation as a 'so-call economics crisis'. This is more than a crisis. It fills me with dread to think the potential effects it will have on the financial system, should the situation go beyond a certain critical stage and the consequences this will have on the whole economy. The only way we can get ourselves out of this dire situation is to first accept it as a problem, take responsibility for it and we can then take proper, decisive and complete steps to deal with the medium to long term effects. I very well believe there is no short term solution to this crisis. It does not help trying to shift the blame on only businessmen and 'unpatriotic citizens' or foreigners. Blaming one another amounts to unwillingness to accept responsibility and for that matter wrong and half- hearted measures to address the situation. As long as this is the case, the problem will never go away. While I don't doubt the commitment of President Jammeh, as an individual, to work for the good of The Gambia and its people, it is my fundamental belief that we are not going about it in the right way and the actions of some rogue elements, who are the pure ‘axis of evil’ in offices of public trust, have made the task even more difficult. A more prosperous and peaceful Gambia is what we are all praying for and may Allah help us in our struggle. In my last article, in which I argued that in my opinion, some of the underlying causes of the economic difficulty are some of the misguided policies that brought the problem to a head, it is worth mentioning that I believe these are not the only causes of the crisis, In fact, I believe they are diverse. People's arguments and perspectives about the crisis may differ, when it comes to the way forward. I believe these are more likely depend on one's economic idealogical leaning and therefore, I accept and welcome criticism and differing views. This will only be healthy for the country, if the debate can be taken on the public platform. I mentioned the relatively big gap between the rate of inflation( between 20 to 30 per cent) and average yearly salary rises( of about 5 per cent) and how unsustainable this is for the ordinary Gambian and those living on the seriously handicapped subsistence food production. I am not arguing that salary rises should be locked-in with the rate of inflation. Given the position of the government, this will be economically unsustainable, if not impossible. What I am arguing for, given the fast deteriorating condition of the economy, is not to try and go for the politically motivated short term fix. These are not only unworkable but will make an already untenable position worse. It is my fundamental belief that we need a fundamental reassessment of not only policy but also strategy, to make sure we deal with once and for all, the critical shortcomings of the system as a whole. This will include reforms in both the Central and Local governments sizes and structures as well as the structure of the economy and the accompanying policies. I believe the current level of inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption, given the size and structure of the government blatantly and unacceptably defies the basic principles of reasonable Central and Local government fiscal discipline. This is supported by the almost 12 per cent fiscal deficit to GDP. Blaming half started or half completed and later abandoned projects for this is unacceptable. Given a 33.2 per cent rise of projected net expenditure and lending to D2.9 billion by the end of October from 1.9 billion the previous year, and of this figure, D1.77 billion goes to recurrent expenditure, vis-a-vis on administration and salaries does not make any economic sense, given that total consolidated revenue for 2003 was only D1.87 billion. We cannot continue borrowing to fill this fiscal gap, as this is not only unsustainable, but will lead to a point when we will not be able to honour both our domestic and international debt commitments given our economic situation, thus damaging not only our international credit worthiness but also confidence in the government, the currency and our Foreign Direct Investment worthiness. This could again lead to massive Capital Flight, as the increase in the level of foreign asset acquisition by commercial banks in the country over the past few years indicated. We cannot either continue diverting donor funds meant for pressing development projects into unacceptably high administrative or non-investment recurrent expenses I believe therefore, given our situation and the gloom prospects of recovery at least for the foreseeable future, the government needs a fundamental directional re-assessment, with regards to size and structure. I am not advocating for the government to embark on mass redundancies or abandonment of vital projects. Making people redundant en-mass will be socially too costly, without any sort of social safety net, as is the case in the country. In fact I think this is morally repugnant. What I argue is for some long term strategies which will give room to restructure without causing considerable social distress. This can be through for example, freezing or considerably limiting new recruitment onto both central and local government payrolls while making sure those who reach the age of retirement retire and not unnecessarily renewing their contracts, for a carefully considered programme period of say five years. This has to be across all government departments and institutions and will give room to re-structure the remaining staff into smaller, more efficient and economically sensible structures. It is quite clear that government departments are over-staffed and the majority of whom are poorly paid. Reforms and direct cuts can be made in some administrative expenses, for example letting the immigration officers going plain cloth rather than spending millions on uniforms every year. Reforming wasteful, inefficient and useless local governments should be central as I believe in normal terms, they should play a very vital in the overall development blueprint of the government and therefore they should be able to deliver. Reforming them into smaller but very efficient and cost effective Regional Development boards elected and more accountable to the people, charged with the development of their regions, with full government backing is necessary. I believe there is tremendous potential for both Central and Local government Fiscal Austerity. To be continued © Copyright 2003 by Observer Company ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/CGI/wa.exe?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~