After Elections will just BE like before election. Malanding Jaiteh <[log in to unmask]> wrote: Hope all is well? Since I cannot find any polls, predictions or forecasts on Sept 22 Presidential election, I thought I should come up with my own. First, some disclaimers: 1. This is not the real thing. The real results will not be available until IEC announcement sometime after Sept 22 polls close. 2. The voter list isjust an estimate, based on 2001 voter list, estimated number of persons of voting age (2003). The proportions of votes allocated to each is based on how each group faired in the past ARC based on UDP, APRC on APRC 2001, NADD (PDOIS 2001). Also taken into account is the current composition of political alliances and demographics, ethnicity and level of urbanization in each district. My assumption is the fewer urbanites tend to vote less/ those that vote are either organized groups or those who benefit directly from government spending. Rural folks tend to vote with strictly along historical and ethnic alliances. The development of roads in the north bank will mean a APRC will gain the upperhand in those areas. The south Bank will be divided based on ethnic lines. Western Division will go APRC- Foni, Brikama, Kombo North and South for infrastructural development /promises. I bet: 10 bututs APRC will have 58+/- 3% D1 bututs ARC will have greater than 40% D5 NADD will have greater than 10% See you Sep 23. Malanding Jaiteh District 2006_est_voters ARC APRC NADD Banjul Central 5,673 1702 3404 567 Banjul North 10,980 4392 6039 549 Banjul South 5,512 1378 3307 827 Central Baddibu 7,326 3663 3516 147 Foni Bintang Karanai 8,045 644 7241 161 Foni Bondali 2,973 238 2676 59 Foni Brefet 5,439 816 4351 272 Foni Jarrol 2,842 227 2558 57 Foni Kansala 6,197 248 5887 62 Fulladu East 45,896 22030 22948 918 Fulladu West 34,081 18745 13633 1704 Janjanburay 1,826 712 1096 18 Jarra Central 3,244 1687 1460 97 Jarra East 5,611 3367 2132 112 Jarra West 12,368 6184 5566 618 Jokadu 8,182 2127 5727 327 K.U.D.C. 120,500 34945 67480 18075 Kantora 13,341 4269 8672 400 Kiang Central 3,693 2400 1219 74 Kiang East 3,140 2355 628 157 Kiang West 6,276 5021 941 314 Kombo Central 44,829 13449 29139 2241 Kombo East 13,886 3471 9720 694 Kombo North 90,973 23653 59132 8188 Kombo South 32,415 8428 21070 2917 Lower Baddibu 7,493 5395 1649 225 Lower Nuimi 22,152 3323 16836 1994 Lower Saloum 6,591 1977 4284 330 Niamina Dankunku 2,698 1484 1187 27 Niamina East 9,022 3880 4962 180 Niamina West 3,171 1427 1680 63 Niani 9,986 4694 5093 200 Nianija 3,644 1458 2004 182 Sami 9,202 4785 4141 276 Sandu 8,531 3583 4436 427 Upper Baddibu 26,756 13378 12843 535 Upper Nuimi 11,700 3510 7605 585 Upper Saloum 6,821 2933 3751 136 Wuli 16,547 4964 10094 1489 Total Ballot 639,563 222940 370106 46206 Percent Vote 35 58 7 いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://listserv.icors.org/archives/gambia-l.html To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい --------------------------------- Get your own web address for just $1.99/1st yr. We'll help. Yahoo! Small Business. いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://listserv.icors.org/archives/gambia-l.html To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい