African viewpoint: Living in the dark

Nigerians are still no wiser about the motive for the violence in the north

In our series of viewpoints from African journalists, Sola Odunfa considers how Nigerians are coping day by day with the unremitting heat and politics.

Here in Nigeria in the past four weeks the weather has been oppressively warm - and humid.

The more one looks now, the less one sees

Trees no longer provide cool shade. Houses give no comfort any more except, of course, those of the rich, which are air-conditioned up to 20 hours a day.

When we sleep at the end of the day we lift our sweat-soaked bodies at least twice before dawn to use the towel, and then we induce sleep with a cardboard or plastic hand fan.

Experts say this is harmattan, but many of us have lived long enough in this country to know that harmattan does not come biting in March and April.

I am dripping sweat in my study as I write this letter.

There has been rain here and there a few times across the country.

No-one knows

All it did was to cleanse the skies of heavy dust and deposit the brownish water on our heads or roofs.

The rain should have been good relief but some officials of state warned us to run indoors because it was acid rain which could be a serious health hazard.

No-one seems to know what is happening with the weather or in politics

You know, when you go to a hospital here with symptoms of fever, the doctor immediately declares that you are a malaria patient and goes on to prescribe malaria tablets and analgesics.

You need prayers to be sure that you really have malaria.

In the same tradition the meteorology service explains the current weather condition with some mumbo-jumbo about climate change.

So, no-one knows for sure what is happening.

Hope of survival

We cope by the day.

It is the same with the political situation.

In spite of official pretensions at investigating, we are no wiser about the motive for the mass killings and demolition of churches in parts of northern Nigeria or the brains behind them.

We simply live by the day on hope of survival.

When Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi suggested the break-up of the country as a way out of the bloodletting, Senate President David Mark dismissed him as a "mad man" - and that was it.

Demonstrating in Abuja is now the fashion for the youth

It is now the fashion for activists to stage demonstrations in Abuja principally to drum up support for Acting President Goodluck Jonathan.

Winner-takes-all

Good enough, but very few Nigerians are aware of the high-wire political manoeuvres of the genteel Goodluck.

Obasanjo is not known to forgive his perceived enemies

We may not know his long-time political objective but it would be naive of us to believe that the man is setting this elaborate stage for a regime which may not last more than a year.

In line with our winner-takes-all political philosophy, Jonathan has purged the federal cabinet of the more important loyalists of ailing President Umaru Yar'Adua.

Mindful of the potential strength of the Yar'Adua clan in opposition he struck them by appointing Yar'Adua's nephew a minister.

This has left the ambitious and powerful president's wife isolated within the Yar'Adua political family.

If that appointment bears the hallmark of former President Olusegun Obasanjo's scheming genius, there is the counterpoise of the appointment of two Obasanjo foes into even higher offices: General Theophilus Danjuma as chairman of the Presidential Advisory Council and General Aliyu Gusau as National Security Adviser.

Mr Obasanjo's voice may therefore not be the dominant voice in Mr Jonathan's ear.

Turbulent days ahead

In the past two weeks we have heard that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is returning to the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party.

You may remember him as the vice-president who engaged his boss President Obasanjo but lost in an open no-holds-barred contest for power for four years.

Mr Obasanjo is not known to forgive his perceived enemies. So, Atiku returning to PDP with the support of Mr Jonathan may signal turbulent days ahead for the party in the run-up to next year's presidential election.

The situation may become more compounded if, as some of us believe, the former chairman of the anti-corruption agency, EFCC, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu returns from self-exile to take up an appointment in the Jonathan presidency.

That may be another hard tackle on Mr Obasanjo.

The Jonathan presidency is surely taking shape, but the more one looks now, the less one sees.

We keep watching.

One thing, for sure, is that acting President Jonathan will supervise the 2011 elections and he will have the power to award the 2011 presidency to anyone, even to himself.

As with all our other problems we are living only by the day.