Gambian Dilema, the Jammeh conundrum
by Momodou kaba Fatty
As one cataclysmic event after another unfold around the world, Gambians await the November election with great
anticipation; wondering whether the process will bring reconciliation, and healing, or confusion, and chaos, Ivorian style.
As Jammeh consolidates his grip on power, it is obvious to all Gambians that a mere count of votes will not remove him
from power.
Characteristic of African dictators, Jammeh would rather see Gambia destroyed than accept a verdict of the people that
gives the opposition a majority of the votes. He has already given hint on many occasions, that he will not be removed
from power by elections. He is either confident of his popularity with Gambians, or has enough tricks up his sleeves to
thwart the will of the Gambian people. My believe is that the later is the case.
That Jammeh is a master manipulator is obvious, however, the stakes have gotten a lot higher for him in recent months.
Though a lot of mayhem has been caused in the country; and as gruesome and cowardly as they are, their impact has
largely been limited to Gambia and Gambians.
Jammeh's foolishness has now gone beyond the boundaries of the Gambia. The massive haul of South American drugs
is still to be properly explained or prosecuted. His alleged involvement in potential UN sanction busting, combined with
hints arms trafficking to rebels in neighbouring Senegal, has now convinced Jammeh that his chances of going into
peaceful retirement are pretty remote. He knows the stakes could not be higher.
Despite all the bravado and tough talk, Jammeh's cowardice is well known to all surrounding him. That he uses the state
machinery to bully and intimidate the opposition and Gambian people is also a recorded fact. One then asks, what
chance has the opposition got in standing up to Jammeh in the general election of 2011. This is assuming that he would
not be crowned king before any elections.
A lot of time and effort has been spent by many well meaning Gambians in trying to bring the opposition into some kind
of coalition to fight Jammeh.
As desirable as opposition unity may be, Jammeh knows that with the backing of the state security apparatus, combined
with the rebel army from Cassamance, he is assured of maintaining his firm grip on power. He is a person who likes to
take things to the brink, and knowing that many peace loving Gambians will not challenge him to the brink, he will
continue to impose his will on the Gambian people.
Those who put themselves up for leadership of the opposition, though honourable gentlemen, do not seem to have the
enthusiasm or the brinkmanship necessary to challenge Jammeh. There is a lot of talk about the personal sacrifices that
opposition leaders are making, I personally don't expect less from them.
UDP's prevarication and hesitancy on key issues and moments, has cost them and the country the chance of a different
political dispensation. The party could have been in power since 1996 had Darboe stood his ground, mobilised his
supporters, and insisted that he is the rightful winner of that election, as most observers believe.
Being on the ground at the time and part of the many supporters, I know the public had sufficient motivation and
courage to challenge a not so consolidated AFPRC. The moment was right, but the leadership was lacking; this is the
tragedy of the end of the transition.
Since then, other events like the tragic shooting of unarmed students have not motivated the UDP or other opposition
leaders into action. A call to their members to join the defenseless kids protesting in the streets could have prevented
Jammeh from returning to the country. Instead, most of the opposition leaders were busy trying to prove that they were
not behind the student demonstrations.
The boycotting of one election and participating in another in the same election cycle, gives the impression of an
unfocused party. The recent humiliation of Gambians villagers by forcibly administering poisonous drink to the weak
and infirm, in the name of a witch hunt, has not caused consternation in the opposition leadership. This is an outright
violation of the human rights of the victims; and coming from the state as it was, it may be equal in gravity to crimes
being prosecuted by the UN tribunal. It is a matter that the opposition should have collectively reported to UN, AU, and
relevant human rights organizations. What we get is a banal statement about Gambians believing in witchcraft and so on
and so forth.
As for the other parties, not much is to be said. PDOIS's endless pamphleteering is mainly restricted to their die hard
followers. The often long-winded explanation of all and sundry, leaves wondering whether they are aspiring to be the
lead NGO in the country, and not a party wishing to lead the Gambian people out of our predicament. They, rather than
the Gambian people are the ones needing education about the realistic aspirations of the Gambian masses.
My fear is that a point will be reached when frustration with the current situation will boil over, leading to an
opportunistic military challenge to Jammeh. Even worse, Jammeh likely be replaced by another crude military dictator, a
scenario of "one step forward, two steps backwards". Certainly, the peace loving people of the Gambia deserve better.