No wonder the analyst did not show his or her face. This to me is a mere passing of a narrow opinion as sound analysis to an event that is just unfolding. To make emphirical analysis of these elections and be able to reach the conclusion that
the the oppositon parties that did not participate in it made a mistake requires a deeper look into the whole thing not a just a mere scraping of the top.
Owens made a good point about the voting constitutency of the independent candidates. There is no doubt that apart from those former members of the UDP that contested as independents, all if not most of the remaining independent candidates emerged out of splits within the APRC. That is why the APRC even issued statements banishing them and also make threats against those that like to call themselves "APRC independents" has had happened before. Also, the fact that winning independent candidates out of APRC splits always tend to caucus with the APRC during assembly sessions, makes it nonsensical to count any gains made by such candidates as part of what the opposition would have gained if they had participated in the elections.
In the 2007 elections we supported independent candidates where we felt it was better to do so. We had Ebrima marenah in Niamina east and Ousman Jallow in Jokadu and also provided logistacal support to other independents candidates who came to us for support despite their known affinity with the APRC. The independent candaditates of Jeswang constituency Modou I. Cham and Kebba Yero Manneh of Jangjangbureh were among them. I worked with Cham from nomination to the first week of campaign before he succumbed to the inducements from the APRC with promises of financial support and scholarships.  
The danger with independent candidates is that they are not bound by the electoral laws that binds an elected member of the assembly to his or her party once elected. If they are not very sincere people they can always go against the wishes of those that elected them.
Mass brings in an interesting issue of who will be monority leader in the next assembly. I will not be suprised if this is given to one of the independents since as the name implies mimority, unless the rules (am not sure) expressly gives it to a political party member. Because it is by voting that they choose majority and monority members, the APRC members can crown it to anyone they wish to give it to. Anyway, lets wait and see.
 
Nyang
From: Haruna <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Friday, March 30, 2012 9:55 AM
Subject: Re: [G_L] Opposition Boycott May have cost them 12 Seats Election Analysis Pointed!

Owens, I tend to take your line of thinking as far as electoral calculus goes. Plus, the boycot by the significant opposition parties inured the implosions within APRC. I am not interested in the personal gains or losses of Hon. Hamat.

Haruna. Thank you cous Demba for sharing your analysis.

-----Original Message-----
From: Sanusi Owens <[log in to unmask]>
To: GAMBIA-L <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Fri, Mar 30, 2012 3:26 am
Subject: Re: [G_L] Opposition Boycott May have cost them 12 Seats Election Analysis Pointed!

Do not agree with the analysis, I am sure the situation would have been  different if the Opposition had not "boycotted". One has to bear in mind the Independents only came into the scene after realising that the Opposition Parties will not participate. Most of those who voted for the Independent are staunch supporters of the APRC. Another point to mention is that there has been a slight  improvement in the overall turnout from the last NationaL Assembly elections held in 2007.

From: Demba Baldeh <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Friday, 30 March 2012, 8:05
Subject: [G_L] Opposition Boycott May have cost them 12 Seats Election Analysis Pointed!

Hamat Bah has been humiliated again as he lost his dream seat refusing to join his colleagues to boycott the elections.. however, close analysis of the election results could give a different impression...
 
Analysis of the results may show that the opposition could have captured up to 12 seats in the house including opposition independence wins...
 
Check out more indept analysis of the results at http://www.gainako.com/news/news/2012/03/30/hamat-bah-loses-parliamentary-elections-while-independence-grab-four-seats.html
 
How would you analyse the results??????
 
Thanks

Demba
--
"Be the change you want to see in the World"
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