Subject: Re: [>-<] Alagie Yorro Jallow publishes a book on the Gambian media
Greetings Yero,
I am a democrat
and believe in democracy but not in the context of The Gambia under President
Yahya Jammeh. The Gambian situation is very complex and deeply troubling. In
The Gambia’s case, it is my view that elections will never unseat President
Jammeh. In fact, presidential elections in The Gambia are so predictable because
the playing field clearly, is not level. The outcome of Presidential Elections
in the Gambian under Jammeh is always a foregone conclusion, in my view. When I
listen to Presidential election result in the Gambia, I do so, not because I am
expecting an opposition upset, but just to hear how big Jammeh’s winning margin
would be as opposed to the preceding elections.
The sad thing is
that we are dealing with a person (Jammeh) who is ritualistic and believes in
the superstitious practice of ritual killings. For instance, a western diplomat
in Banjul said, off the record, just the other day, that he had seen enough
evidence to convince him that the execution of nine prisoners in the Gambia in
August 2012 was for ritual purposes. In July 2012, a Senegalese (female) ‘sorceress’
predicted Jammeh’s overthrow within 100 days, unless he sacrificed human blood
and organs. To prolong his stay in power, Jammeh was told to kill an odd number
of people (nine), including a woman, and then to retrieve some of their organs
for ritual purposes. This explains why Jammeh has, to date, refused to hand
over (or return) the corpses to family members and loved ones. It is an open
secret that Jammeh, since 1994, has been practising the ritual
slaughter/sacrifice of animals. Mutilated bodies of animals have been found in
the gardens of State House in Banjul several times. A Malian (male) ‘sorcerer’
warned Jammeh to be wary of a woman in his Cabinet who was wearing a Muslim hijab. The next day, the President
sacked his Higher Education Minister, Dr Mariama Sarr-Ceesay - she was the only
one in the Cabinet who wore a Muslim hijab
on a daily basis.
Dictator Jammeh
gives the appearance of subscribing to the democratic process to The Gambian
people and to the international community. For him, as I explained in great detail
in my book, the elections have served the very useful purpose of giving him a
‘legitimacy card’ to play on the political scene in The Gambia. Jammeh has been
careful to use elections to set the stage in his favour. However, the outcome
of these elections has never been in doubt to the ruling regime in The Gambia.
Defeat at the ballot box is not an issue since the regime rigs the elections to
suit itself. The elections serve to give some credence to the existence of a
functioning democratic state whilst masking the reality of an absolute
dictatorship. The Presidential elections have over the years served the purpose
of legitimising the Jammeh/APRC regime.
In fact, since
the July 1994 coup, elections and electioneering processes in the Gambia have
increasingly edged towards the consolidation of incumbency. Patterns of
elections in The Gambia suggest a move towards a de facto one-party system and the status quo has not been caused by
the lack of an opposition, nor is the opposition to blame for the fact that the
Gambia is today for, all intents and purposes, a one party dictatorship. What has
happened is that Jammeh has, over the years, used the politics of fear, force, terror
and coercion quite effectively. He made sure that he has institutionalised,
militarised and polarised the entire political and social spaces in the country.
He has effectively used terror, force, fear and coercion as a driving and motivating
factor, in order to get the Gambian people to vote for him.
In other words, by
successfully employing the politics of fear, force, brutality, terror, and
coercion, the civil service and public enterprises (institutionalisation), the
security forces and party militants (militarisation) and society (polarisation)
have all openly and actively supported and campaigned for the ruling APRC. And sadly,
this has meant that the opposition has been squeezed out.
In the
Democratisation (academic) literature, the phrase “fear-induced landslide election
victories” has been used in relation to cases like the Gambia and Zimbabwe
(under Mugabe). To understand the Gambian/African situation better, I suggest
you read this excellent book, Africa Works: Disorder as Political
Instrument African Issues, by Patrick Chabal, Jean-Pascal Daloz.
Comparing/contrasting
elections in the pre-1994 period and the post-1994 era is quite instructive. Under
former president Jawara, there was a sense of independence between government,
state institutions and the rest of society. In short, there was autonomy
between the State and other social powers, such as the military, the Mosque, Church,
Public Enterprises and the social movements. But under Jammeh, their identities
have been blurred - through the politics of fear, force, brutality, terror and
coercion. Through fear, repression, tyranny, terror and coercion, Jammeh has had
a total control of the political and social spaces, and this has meant that
opposition voices cannot be heard and that the majority of the Gambian people
cannot express their hopes and aspirations outside the structures of the ruling
APRC.
Therefore, elections,
in my view, will not unseat Jammeh, nor do I expect a successful coup or a
people’s uprising. A coup attempt is possible, but a successful coup is
unlikely, given the composition of the Gambia National Army, whose key positions
are today, occupied/manned by Jammeh loyalists - mainly from his Jola tribe. In
fact, it has since been confirmed that Jammeh’s personal security protection is
provided by MFDC rebels from Casamance who belong to his Jola tribe. Uprising
in The Gambia is also unlikely, as long as Gambians in the Diaspora are sending
remittances to the country (which now amount to $150 Million Dollars per annum).
Although there is severe economic hardship in the country, the remittances from
Diaporan Gambians have meant that the real nature of the economic hardship gripping
average Gambians today is not as evident/observable, as it should be. In other
words, the true economic crisis in the country is not biting the average Gambian,
as it should be, because of the endless financial support that local Gambians
are getting from family members and loved ones in the Diaspora. But given the
sizeable youthful population of the Gambia, one can speculate here, that an
internally-driven uprising in the country would have been likely/possible if
the remittances were to stop today. Although this is moot point (or
unrealistic) given the fact that Diaporan Gambians will never stop sending
money to family members and loved ones.
In my view, for
now, only two things can only lead to the ousting of Yahya Jammeh.