Dr Jaiteh a forester and trained GIS exlert seemingly in your postulation have knowledge to about the quick fix technical and socioeconomic problems
.Good luck and waiting the answers beyond the statistical data been forwarded.

Date: Fri, 30 May 2014 23:55:23 -0700
From: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: What's Our Make-up & How Was/Is It Managed
To: [log in to unmask]

Thanks Matarr, I think you got it right when you said we need to turn our economy to industrialization. I still believe that we have some resources we can use.. The fish in the Gambian waters is exploited by as far nations as Russian Fishermen. I remember at GCAA the french provided a Spy helicopter which goes around the waters and catch illegal fishing boats and call the marine to catch and escort them offshore which eventually lead to millions of Dalasis in fines. I personally flew in one of those helicopters around 5am and was surprise to see more than 5 illegal boats fishing in our waters.

That fish can be processed in factories to provide food and exports to other nations. We can also use the ports for transportation and transit centers for business. The Banjul port alone is capable of bringing tons of income if managed well. Industrialization I sometimes call Mechanization is definitely a good option. I know Dr. Jaiteh is not too keen on Mechanization but that could benefit our population faster at least in the short term.

I am still very keen in agriculture we just need to shift from traditional planting seasons and use of failed crops to may be genitally modified crops to fit our changing climate. Again Dr. Jaiteh may not be too supportive of this as an environmentalist I supposed. But think about it. the corn grown in Gambia is mostly for subsistence farming/consumption only. Corn is a major cash crop we can definitely turn to through irrigation in addition to the regular planting season... How about rice, upland rice cultivation such as we had in Jakali Pacharr, Kuntaur, Barajali and the Niaminas where there is still minimal salt water. Not to talk about other kinds of crops like cotton, millet etc.. Gambia can definitely grow a large part of what we consume...

Thanks for weighing in too.. Interesting discussion.

Demba

On Fri, May 30, 2014 at 9:11 PM, Matarr Sillah <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Demba,

Don't be fooled by the comfy offices of the IMF & the WB in Washington, DC. Along with the OECD, they operate some of the best databanks around. Half of the data in the report Dr. Jaiteh quoted came from the WB & the IMF. I don't know about the opposition, but Jammeh and his buddies do produce reports from data they get in the field. You will find a handful if you look around.

Burama, with inflation, I would be careful using the the MDG poverty line $ amount that was adjusted after the financial crisis by the World Bank to make a case for getting out of poverty. Sure, Jammeh can finally play his oil CD and meet the $1.25 MDG requirement, but to be able to say Gambia truly moved over 1 million people out of poverty, policy makers must adjust/increase this poverty line to keep up with the rising CPI (between 5-7% annually).

China - It can be very dangerous to use China as a case study. The Chinese had a completely different attitude towards work, nonprofits, foreign aid and private relief organizations. Basically, almost everything you are preaching, the Chinese leaders were against, including human rights. What ensured in China as a result was decades of famine that ended up killing millions. Given our politics at the moment, I do not see Gambia going through a similar phase for the sake of sustainable trade just to lift us out of poverty.

We should also not get too excited about being poorly managed because we "have abundant resources"; we are a resource poor nation. In the waters, there is really not much you can do with our ports these days. We've lost our competitiveness as a re-exportation hub to other countries in the sub-region due to ill advised policies from the early days of the APRC govt.

Stats - although statistics will help us plan better, but labour statistics in Africa is generally neither here nor there. No one really know the real characteristics of our economy since most of it is done in the informal sector and trying to bring that to the fold is a way more difficult than we are imagining at the moment. This is where our stats problem continues to be and it is a phenomenon all African nations are currently struggling with.

For Gambia, we will really need to start thinking about adopting policies that will shift our economy from the agricultural sector and into the industrial sector. Industrialization as we've seen in all emerging economies will be key if we are really serious about ending poverty. The data Dr. Jaiteh forwarded on migration show high rates of rural-urban migration, and if that is the case, then this is the right time for Gambia to aggressively pursue industrialization.

Thanks,
Matarr

On Friday, May 30, 2014 6:36 PM, Malanding Jaiteh <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Demba,
you will mistrust the World Bank or the IMF if you read about them in the Daily Observer!

Malanding

From: The Gambia and Related Issues Mailing List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Demba Baldeh
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2014 6:12 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [G_L] What's Our Make-up & How Was/Is It Managed

Dr. Jaiteh,

I agree with you that WFP data could be a little more accurate. There are certainly models they can use to project a good degree of reliable data by using models which is quite common now. I also agree that these NGOs have been around for quite sometime and have been using their own data independent of government. I did work for the Central statistics for several months through the SDA project and I can assure that most of the data we collected in the field were fairly accurate. Now what they do with the data is a whole different story.

I also wish that the political opposition can be actively scrutinizing or debunking all the fanciful imaginary policies coming out of the professor's over Ataya policies - which can only be regarded as dreams. Why the opposition does not think it is relevant to counter these points especially the fact that they are not represented in parliament is just hard to comprehend.

In any case if we have a really serious responsible government I think there is fairly good amount of data the government can build upon. A lot of NGOs are doing a great job in Gambia and the subregion. The ones I don't tend to trust are the World Banks and IMFs who sits in their comfort zones and rely on government generated statistics.. like low inflation..

I just wish that we can have real technocrats handling these things who will confidently advice government to implement. For now this is only a dream.. Have a great weekend..

Demba

On Fri, May 30, 2014 at 2:21 PM, Burama Jammeh <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Dr Jaiteh

Good numbers. Except some tend to contradict one another. As Demba mentioned and as I have argued all these years we need good facts for inform decision making and not relying on some individual/groups bad/good mood.

I respectfully disagree NGOs have “very reliable data”. Far from it. I worked for one of the most reputable NGO (ActionAid) in the country for about 12 years. In fact I have done many sub-regional and regional works but also in-country coordination with other NGOs. The numbers are usually extrapolations from different sources - unconfirmed. None of them measure well especially on variables that relate to outputs and outcomes. Not accusing anyone but many are to make it look good to secure funding and other things.

Equally WFP rely on secondary sources at least in Gambia. Say peanut cultivated area annually. There are no extension worker (or inadequate), no tools to measure, etc. Many NGOs report this number on their annual reports - where did it come from? Forestries arial photos could be a good start to carve out agricultural land but too late now because many land use changes. You know those where helpful to Forestry not because of the Dept. but the project. I don’t think they now use them. I asked a colleague to send me specific numbers - he still didn’t. I will not mention his name!

To the best of my knowledge the intact information up until I left - Department of Forestry. The arial photos through GTZ support in the 70s/80s can be accurately (acceptable) interpreted what obtains today. The average annual rate can only be mathematically calculated. I personally demarcated my CFs from Brefet to Sibanor based on those photos. You come across marked changes but generally helpful.

Child immunization also has good records - Dept. of Health/UNDP. And is one area Gambia is comparatively doing good.

Whatever my skepticism is not so important as to the point that we need fact based inform decision making. Facts are numbers.

Thanks again. Hope others find it useful and how it can encourage democracy.

Burama

On May 30, 2014, at 3:05 PM, Malanding Jaiteh <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Burama,
Some basic number:

Population of the Gambia: 1.8Million (estimate)
Using locally generated WFP Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) 2011 reporthttp://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp235363.pdf:

Poverty and wealth
·         50 percent of household lives below the poverty line of US$2 per day

·         31 percent live below USD$1.25 (World Bank, 2005).

5 Income groups (per household)
·         lowest (less than 20,000 Dalasi), (45.2%)

·         low (between 20,000 and 40,000 Dalasi), (24.5%)

·         medium (between 40,000 and 50,000 Dalasi), (11.6%)

·         medium-high (between 50,000 and 80,000 Dalasi), (9.7%)

·         highest (above 80,000 Dalasi) (9.0%)

Expenditure per household
·         Monthly household expenditure is approximately 7,860 Dalasi

·         per capita monthly expenditure is estimated at 854 Dalasi.

·         food accounts for approximately 58 percent of the total expenditure.

·         Within the food category

o   rice (29 percent)

o   fish and meat (16 percent),

o   sugar (15 percent)

o    oils (13%)
o   attaya tea (5%),

Food Access
·         76 percent reported purchasing food for consumption

Migration

·         1 in 3 households have migrant family members

·         17 percent have seasonal migrants (away for less than 6 months) only,

·         70 percent have prolonged migrants (away for more than 6 months)

·         At least 50 percent of households received remittances within the range of 5,000 and 10,000 Dalasi last year

Malanding Jaiteh

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