Demba,
Don't be fooled by the comfy offices of the IMF & the WB in Washington, DC. Along with the OECD, they operate some of the best databanks around. Half of the data in the report Dr. Jaiteh quoted came from the WB & the IMF. I don't know about the opposition, but Jammeh and his buddies do produce reports from data they get in the field. You will find a handful if you look around.
Burama, with inflation, I would be careful using the the MDG poverty line $ amount that was
adjusted after the financial crisis by the World Bank to make a case for getting out of poverty. Sure, Jammeh can finally play his oil CD and meet the $1.25 MDG requirement, but to be able to say Gambia truly moved over 1 million people out of poverty, policy makers must adjust/increase this poverty line to keep up with the rising CPI (between 5-7% annually).
China - It can be very dangerous to use China as a case study. The Chinese had a completely different attitude towards work, nonprofits, foreign aid and private relief organizations. Basically, almost everything you are preaching, the Chinese leaders were against, including human rights. What ensured in China as a result was decades of famine that ended up killing
millions. Given our politics at the moment, I do not see Gambia going through a similar phase for the sake of sustainable trade just to lift us out of poverty.
We should also not get too excited about being poorly managed because we "have abundant resources"; we are a resource poor nation. In the waters, there is really not much you can do with our ports these days. We've lost our competitiveness as a re-exportation hub to other countries in the sub-region due to ill advised policies from the early days of the APRC govt.
Stats - although statistics will help us plan better, but labour statistics in Africa is generally neither here nor there. No one really know the real characteristics of our economy since most of it is done in the informal sector and trying to bring that to the fold is a way more difficult than we are imagining at the moment. This is where our stats problem continues to be and it is a phenomenon all African nations are currently struggling with.
For Gambia, we will really need to start thinking about adopting policies that will shift our economy from the agricultural sector and into the industrial sector. Industrialization as we've seen in all emerging economies will be key if we are really serious about ending
poverty. The data Dr. Jaiteh forwarded on migration show high rates of rural-urban migration, and if that is the case, then this is the right time for Gambia to aggressively pursue industrialization.
Thanks,
Matarr
Demba,
you will mistrust the World Bank or the IMF if you read about them in the Daily Observer!
Malanding
From: The Gambia and Related Issues Mailing List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
Of
Demba Baldeh
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2014 6:12 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [G_L] What's Our Make-up & How Was/Is It Managed
Dr. Jaiteh,
I agree with you that WFP data could be a little more accurate. There are certainly models they can use to project a good degree of reliable data by using models which is quite common now. I also agree that these NGOs have been around for quite sometime and have been using their own data independent of government. I did work for the Central statistics for several months through the SDA project and I can assure that
most of the data we collected in the field were fairly accurate. Now what they do with the data is a whole
different story.
I also wish that the political opposition can be actively scrutinizing or debunking all the fanciful imaginary policies coming out of the professor's over Ataya policies - which can only be regarded as dreams. Why the opposition does not think it is relevant to counter these points especially the fact that they are not represented in parliament is just hard to comprehend.
In any case if we have a really serious responsible government I think there is fairly good amount of data the government can build upon. A lot of NGOs are doing a great job in Gambia and the subregion. The ones I don't tend to trust are the World Banks and IMFs who sits in their comfort zones and rely on government
generated
statistics.. like low inflation..
I just wish that we can have real technocrats handling these things who will confidently advice government to implement. For now this is only a dream.. Have a great weekend..
Demba
Dr Jaiteh
Good numbers. Except some tend to contradict one another. As Demba mentioned and
as I have argued all these years we need good facts for inform decision making and not relying on some individual/groups bad/good mood.
I respectfully disagree NGOs have “very reliable data”. Far from it. I worked for one of the most reputable NGO (ActionAid) in the country for about 12 years. In fact I have done many sub-regional and regional works but also in-country coordination with other NGOs. The numbers are usually extrapolations from different sources - unconfirmed. None of them measure well especially on variables that relate to outputs and outcomes. Not accusing anyone but many are to make it look good to secure funding and other things.
Equally WFP rely on secondary sources at
least in Gambia. Say
peanut cultivated area annually. There are no extension worker (or inadequate), no tools to measure, etc. Many NGOs report this number on their annual reports - where did it come from? Forestries arial photos could be a good start to carve out agricultural land but too late now because many land use changes. You know those where helpful to Forestry not because of the Dept. but the project. I don’t think they now use them. I asked a colleague to send me specific numbers - he still didn’t. I will not mention his name!
To the best of my knowledge the intact information up until I left - Department of Forestry. The arial photos through GTZ support in the 70s/80s can be accurately (acceptable) interpreted what obtains today. The average annual rate can only be mathematically calculated. I personally demarcated my CFs from Brefet
to
Sibanor based on those photos. You come across marked changes but generally helpful.
Child immunization also has good records - Dept. of Health/UNDP. And is one area Gambia is comparatively doing good.
Whatever my skepticism is not so important as to the point that we need fact based inform decision making. Facts are numbers.
Thanks again. Hope others find it useful and how it can encourage democracy.
Population of the Gambia: 1.8Million
(estimate)
· 50 percent of household lives below the poverty line of US$2 per day
· 31 percent live below USD$1.25 (World Bank, 2005).
5 Income groups (per household)
· lowest (less than 20,000 Dalasi), (45.2%)
· low (between 20,000 and 40,000 Dalasi), (24.5%)
· medium (between 40,000 and 50,000 Dalasi), (11.6%)
· medium-high (between 50,000 and 80,000 Dalasi), (9.7%)
· highest (above 80,000 Dalasi) (9.0%)
Expenditure per
household
· Monthly household expenditure is approximately 7,860 Dalasi
· per capita monthly expenditure is estimated at 854 Dalasi.
· food accounts for approximately 58 percent of the total expenditure.
· Within the food category
o fish and meat (16 percent),
· 76 percent reported purchasing food for consumption
· 1 in 3 households have migrant family members
· 17 percent have seasonal migrants (away for less than 6 months) only,
· 70 percent have prolonged migrants (away for more than 6 months)
· At least 50
percent of households received remittances within the range of 5,000 and 10,000 Dalasi last year
From: The Gambia and Related Issues Mailing List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Burama Jammeh
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2014 1:09 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [G_L] What's Our Make-up & How Was/Is It Managed One quick
clarification! Paying every Gambian $2/hr is not to suggest government giving such handout.
I meant every Gambian doing a productive work that pays at least such dollar
amount.
We certainly have more resources than Walmart.
You can't be wrong on this
one.
Surely not all problems are human but whatever the cause a better management can never hurt.
We can't be God but we can do better with our God given talent.
Dr. Jaiteh's - Dealing with them in bite sizes is an act of management - no problem there too.
Call me loon but I can't understand if Walwart can pay out an average wage of $4/hr globally with an estimated 1.6 employees and still turn in billions
of profit after taxes; why can't the average Gambian make $2/hr. Sure apple and oranges but why can't we make apple/orange combo?
I hope the next generation of leaders will go to work. We can do better than the
status quo and whatever preceed.
Very well so Dr. Jaiteh.. The problem of overpopulation, land water, economy and governance are not unique to Gambia. These have to be managed on a
continuous basis. I strongly believe that governing is a major central piece to making any head way or otherwise on these areas. The more conscious a government is about these
issues the more likely their impact can be effectively managed... Thus the reason continuous advocacy for a responsible government is always on top of my list.
Any government that focuses on entrenching itself in power, preoccupied with putting down opponents is much more likely to not even pay attention to such issues. Am sure when you ask the Gambian President about these issues he will refer you back to colonial problems rather than confronting the issues as the man in charge...
Gambia is grossly mismanaged and we are going from bad to worst since there are no sound policies to confront such
long term issues.. I look forward to reading more on this
subject.
Demba, the Burama I know does not take no for an answer but i will advice that we narrow the focus
of the discussion and take on population, land water, economy and governance separately, if we are to be effective.
Some will argue that if you deal with governance the rest will fall in line.
Jefferson put it nicely when he said we are all endowed with the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Even China had to adopt these principles (yes in baby steps) before they became the world's factory.
Interesting questions Burama. I guess with the land, population density, agriculture, forestry etc.. Dr. Jaiteh can help us. Him and I had a similar discussion that looked at our overpopulation, agricultural land and erosion. He is with us here and may have done some modern approach research into such data... Dr. can you help us with some insights? These are good observations... For me we are poorly managed but record
keeping, reliable statistics are an epidemic problem.
It would be interesting to look at population, resources vs economic development. China comes to mind with over a billion people but their economy and standard of living continue to improve.. Yet there is arguably no Democracy in China.. How do we reconcile those contradicting approaches... Does a nation have to have Democracy and them to develop? How about human rights? Interesting and stimulating questions..
Estimates has it that at the dawn of independence we were less than 1/2 million people. Today extrapolated estimates put us at 1.7million people. Estimated average density of about 125 people/km
Water surface - 1300 sq. km
Rainfall - about 800-1000mm
Human capital - high school? Undergraduate?
Graduate?
Foreign financial/cash aid ?
Foreign developmental aid including NGOs ?
Forest cover -
4800sq.km this includes shrub and savanahs in 2010. Substantially more even in late 70s. Still waiting for someone at the Dept. on the earlier numbers. 66 national
parks with 34000ha
Agricultural land
- 6650sq. Km
Notice that there are overlaps in the area estimates water + forests + agriculture leaves nothing for settlements. That's understandable from classification but settlement areas is a significant land use that should stand alone.
Estimates indicates 55% of all Gambians live in the urban area. If urban area is GBA which excludes Brikama we are in serious trouble. Regardless we are already in serious trouble. The answers are in the health statistics - WHO estimates o
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