Opinion
Time for critical surgery
By Alasana JK Njie (Cert, PG Dip, BA (HONS)
May 12, 2004, 13:05



Today, no one will deny that we are having problems in the country. Facts
on the ground are testament to this. While it may not be on the scale which
involves a crisis of the financial system, every Gambian is hard hit,
whether one is in or outside of the country. I believe it is the wish of
every Gambian abroad, for a peaceful and progressive Gambia, regardless of
who are in government.

However, it is all too easy to label those abroad as anti-government, by
those who are not comfortable with what is being written about, when one
expresses his or her views. This couldn't be further from the truth. All we
care for is an economically progressive Gambia and Gambians.

Diverse views, healthy debates about issues that matter and willingness to
listen and put politics and party loyalty aside and work together for the
good of this country, is what will take this beautiful country forward,
especially in times of difficulties of this magnitude and severity. It
fills me with deep sympathy, reading and hearing how difficult it is for
ordinary and grassroots Gambians, simply because they can barely afford
vital daily food items. How do we expect someone with an average monthly
salary of about D750 to D800, to feed a family of five or more people, when
the price of a bag of rice ranges between D500 and D650. The rate of
inflation in the country is horrifying beyond belief. Prices of vital daily
commodities have more than trebled over the past four years, while monthly
salaries remain virtually the same for the majority of hard working
Gambians. One doesn't need to be a Rocket Scientist to know that with a
rate of inflation of between 20 to 30 per cent and average yearly salary
rises of about 5 per cent is unsustainable for the ordinary Gambian, except
of course for the looting politician.

It is more worrying for those who earn no salary but instead depend on
seasonal subsistence food production. Things have apparently turned for the
worse over the years and I believe it amounts to betrayal and an insult,
for politicians to sit in their cosy offices and describe the situation as
a 'so-call economics crisis'. This is more than a crisis. It fills me with
dread to think the potential effects it will have on the financial system,
should the situation go beyond a certain critical stage and the
consequences this will have on the whole economy.

The only way we can get ourselves out of this dire situation is to first
accept it as a problem, take responsibility for it and we can then take
proper, decisive and complete steps to deal with the medium to long term
effects. I very well believe there is no short term solution to this
crisis. It does not help trying to shift the blame on only businessmen
and 'unpatriotic citizens' or foreigners. Blaming one another amounts to
unwillingness to accept responsibility and for that matter wrong and half-
hearted measures to address the situation.

As long as this is the case, the problem will never go away. While I don't
doubt the commitment of President Jammeh, as an individual, to work for the
good of The Gambia and its people, it is my fundamental belief that we are
not going about it in the right way and the actions of some rogue elements,
who are the pure ‘axis of evil’ in offices of public trust, have made the
task even more difficult. A more prosperous and peaceful Gambia is what we
are all praying for and may Allah help us in our struggle.

In my last article, in which I argued that in my opinion, some of the
underlying causes of the economic difficulty are some of the misguided
policies that brought the problem to a head, it is worth mentioning that I
believe these are not the only causes of the crisis, In fact, I believe
they are diverse. People's arguments and perspectives about the crisis may
differ, when it comes to the way forward. I believe these are more likely
depend on one's economic idealogical leaning and therefore, I accept and
welcome criticism and differing views. This will only be healthy for the
country, if the debate can be taken on the public platform. I mentioned the
relatively big gap between the rate of inflation( between 20 to 30 per
cent) and average yearly salary rises( of about 5 per cent) and how
unsustainable this is for the ordinary Gambian and those living on the
seriously handicapped subsistence food production. I am not arguing that
salary rises should be locked-in with the rate of inflation. Given the
position of the government, this will be economically unsustainable, if not
impossible. What I am arguing for, given the fast deteriorating condition
of the economy, is not to try and go for the politically motivated short
term fix. These are not only unworkable but will make an already untenable
position worse. It is my fundamental belief that we need a fundamental
reassessment of not only policy but also strategy, to make sure we deal
with once and for all, the critical shortcomings of the system as a whole.
This will include reforms in both the Central and Local governments sizes
and structures as well as the structure of the economy and the accompanying
policies.

I believe the current level of inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption,
given the size and structure of the government blatantly and unacceptably
defies the basic principles of reasonable Central and Local government
fiscal discipline. This is supported by the almost 12 per cent fiscal
deficit to GDP. Blaming half started or half completed and later abandoned
projects for this is unacceptable. Given a 33.2 per cent rise of projected
net expenditure and lending to D2.9 billion by the end of October from 1.9
billion the previous year, and of this figure, D1.77 billion goes to
recurrent expenditure, vis-a-vis on administration and salaries does not
make any economic sense, given that total consolidated revenue for 2003 was
only D1.87 billion. We cannot continue borrowing to fill this fiscal gap,
as this is not only unsustainable, but will lead to a point when we will
not be able to honour both our domestic and international debt commitments
given our economic situation, thus damaging not only our international
credit worthiness but also confidence in the government, the currency and
our Foreign Direct Investment worthiness. This could again lead to massive
Capital Flight, as the increase in the level of foreign asset acquisition
by commercial banks in the country over the past few years indicated. We
cannot either continue diverting donor funds meant for pressing development
projects into unacceptably high administrative or non-investment recurrent
expenses I believe therefore, given our situation and the gloom prospects
of recovery at least for the foreseeable future, the government needs a
fundamental directional re-assessment, with regards to size and structure.
I am not advocating for the government to embark on mass redundancies or
abandonment of vital projects. Making people redundant en-mass will be
socially too costly, without any sort of social safety net, as is the case
in the country. In fact I think this is morally repugnant.

What I argue is for some long term strategies which will give room to
restructure without causing considerable social distress. This can be
through for example, freezing or considerably limiting new recruitment onto
both central and local government payrolls while making sure those who
reach the age of retirement retire and not unnecessarily renewing their
contracts, for a carefully considered programme period of say five years.
This has to be across all government departments and institutions and will
give room to re-structure the remaining staff into smaller, more efficient
and economically sensible structures. It is quite clear that government
departments are over-staffed and the majority of whom are poorly paid.
Reforms and direct cuts can be made in some administrative expenses, for
example letting the immigration officers going plain cloth rather than
spending millions on uniforms every year. Reforming wasteful, inefficient
and useless local governments should be central as I believe in normal
terms, they should play a very vital in the overall development blueprint
of the government and therefore they should be able to deliver. Reforming
them into smaller but very efficient and cost effective Regional
Development boards elected and more accountable to the people, charged with
the development of their regions, with full government backing is
necessary. I believe there is tremendous potential for both Central and
Local government Fiscal Austerity.
To be continued

© Copyright 2003 by Observer Company

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