more stats.
 
Voting patterns in the Gambia 2 

The voting pattern in Gambian politics is not predictable or straight forward.
Looking at the vote result of pdois candidates for the 1992 elections shows that the candidates family background counts a little in determining election outcomes.
The 1992 votes result for PDOIS MP’S:
CONSTITUENCY PARTY NUMBER VOTE
Amie Sillah BJL SOUTH PDOIS 236
Momodou Taal BJL SOUTH PPP 1,535
Babou Njie BJL SOUTH NCP 952
Papa N’Diaye BJL SOUTH INDEPENDENT 171
Amie sillah came second to last, she gain higher votes than only an independent candidate. 


ANOTHER RESULT
HALIFA SALLAH SERREKUNDA EAST PDOIS 833
OMAR JALLOW SERREKUNDA EAST PPP 4,443
O. JAITEH SERREKUNDA EAST NCP 2,236
Serrekunda a wolof dominated region should be an easy picking for Halifa if tribal politics was the main reason of pdois’s message falling on deaf ears. But he like other pdois candidates scores lowest in the 1992 elections. What has change for halifa to win the last two previous elections? What was it that the pdois has done to make voters listen and accept them? OJ a PPP heavy weight who dominated the serrekunda for years couldn't be shaken by Halifa.


ANOTHER AREA RESULT:
SEDIA JATTA WULLI EAST PDOIS 535
SENI SINGHATEH WULLI EAST PPP 1,527
SALIFU DARBOE WULLI EAST PDP 804
M.S DARBOE WULLI EAST NCP 584
Sedia was well beaten by all the candidates in wulli east. This was the time before he embarks on engaging the people. Staying among them for long periods of time and travelling from village to village selling his party’s message. He indoctrinated youths to sell his party’s message. For Sedia, one cannot discuss his rise to dominance in wulli without commenting about the efforts of Surahata Jawneh. Surahatah assisted sedia in distributing PDOIS tapes, pamphlets, and other medium in spreading the message.

ANOTHER AREA RESULT:
SUWAIBOU TOURAY WULLI WEST PDOIS 154
MALANG SAWO WULLI WEST PPP 1,540
KARAMANG JAWUNEH NCP 1,222
FODAY KEBBEH PDP 1,118
Suwaibou a PDOIS through and through gain a meagre vote margin from the wulli west folks. Even though the likes of foday kebbeh were new comers, Suwaibou scored the lowest votes. This pattern is not unique to suwaibou alone. One cannot argue tribal reasons here. All the candidates for wulli are mandinkas.
ANOTHER AREA RESULT
LAMIN W JUWARA NIAMINA INDEPENDENT 3,585
MALANDING CEESAY PPP 3,163
SANA JALLOW GPP 493
Mbarodi or waa won with a slight margin as an independent in Niamina. This indicates that personality counts in politics. Waa for whatever reason did not contest for the PPP, a party he serve as commissioner in several divisions. His too was famous in Niamina once.


NOW THE INTERESTING POPULARITY CONTEST
MY FAVOURITE POLITICAL MAVERICK BUBA BALDEH .NKO NKONTANITA BAAKE (I SAID, I AM EXPTREMELY HAPPY) this is one of buba’s one line speech.
BUBA BALDEH JIMARA PPP 6,028
BAKARY SONKO NCP 355

This is the biggest margin i have come across so far. The fame of Buba was unbelievable. Jimara is predominantly Fula, but that was not the reason Buba beat his rival that much. Buba understood the language of politics. He knew how to use emotion and entertainment in winning votes. During those days Buba is always surrounded by the fula musicians who whip up the crowd to join buba’s campaign team. Buba is from Mansajang which is far from jimara. His Dad was a famous figure in basse’s elite group but buba choose to contest in jimara.
Can our current political players learn anything from Buba? Yes, in term of reaching out and connecting with the people.

My assumption is that the PDOIS leaders would would be glad to engage all the other oppositions in the country in a debate over ideas and philosophy. from the several speeches of and interviews of Halifa, it is apparent that he is rearing to take on udp and aprc especially on policy issues. the lack of opportunity to get that engagement creates the frustration in halifa's interviews. he knew his party got the better ideas and the foundation to withstand criticism. he also knew, he is naturaly gifted to unleash his oratory ability on any of the contending rival parties. halifa would love to have an American style leadership debate. this unfulfil desire may be killing halifa's political ambition. I would love to withness a debate between halifa and ousainou or Yahya. that will be a day to remember for generations in the history of Gambian politics.


--- On Fri, 3/10/08, SUNTOU TOURAY <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

From: SUNTOU TOURAY <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: voting patterns in the gambia
To: [log in to unmask]
Date: Friday, 3 October, 2008, 7:56 AM







http://suntoumana.blogspot.com
 
Thursday, 2 October 2008

Voting patterns in the Gambia 

The 1992 Election result and total MP party percentage score. THIS IS THE VOTES CAST FOR THE RESPECTIVE PARTY MP’S.
Overall votes percentage of vote
The PPP TOTAL VOTES 109,059 54.23%
The NCP 48,845 24.29%
The GPP 13,937 6.93%
The PDP 9,291 4.62%
The PDOIS 4,632 2.30%
The INDEPENDENTS 15,331 7.62 
201,095 100%

the total votes for the over all respective party MP's was as usual favourable to the PPP. the strange thing is, even the new party founded by eccentric business man Solo Darboe, The PDP collected more per head mp votes than PDOIS. another significant port of call is the existence of independent candidates in Gambian political land scape. With over 3 parties in our country, why do we still have independent candidates? is this a failure on the part of all our establish political parties?
it will be interesting to analyse recent election trends.

THE TOTAL PERCENTAGE FOR EACH PARTY LEADER IS HAS FOLLOWS: 1992 election
DK JAWARA PPP 117,549 58.48%
SHERIFF DIBBA NCP 44,639 22.21%
ASSAN MUSA GPP 16,287 8.10%
LAMIN BOJANG PDP 11,999 5.97%
SEDIA JATTA PDOIS 10,543 5.24%
2O1,017 100% 

Source: the political history of the Gambia 1816-1994, pages 330-344.
Initially my interest was about the voting pattern of my own constituency Sandu. But then it is apparent that there is a need to analyse the number of Gambians voting and their party of choice.

It seems to me quiet an overwhelming number of Gambians aren’t voting in numbers. If our population is said to be over a million, then two hundred thousand odd voters is too minimal for effective democracy.
Now coming to the election history of Sandu, where the honourable Musa S. Darboe dominated until his final retirement from contesting election after losing the 1982 general elections to Alhagie AK Touray.
The vote counts for the candidates are: 1982 election
Musa S Darboe scored PPP 2,480
Alhagie AK Touray Independent 3,193
Kissima AK Sillah NCP 250

This means AK Touray won the elections with a large margin. Musa Darboe was a heavy weight. Ak Touray did his campaign with the Basse's famous orator Buba Baldeh who contested in Jimara and won as an independent. Buba's fame and mass support was overwhelming, his car is sometimes lifted up by jubilant supporters.
I will try to shed some light on the records of the late honourbale Musa S. Darboe's election results for the 1970's. the bye-election he won after Batapa was became insane. musa won the bye-election.
more later. ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://listserv.icors.org/archives/gambia-l.html 
To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤
To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface
at: http://listserv.icors.org/archives/gambia-l.html

To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?S1=gambia-l
To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to:
[log in to unmask]
¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤