---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2000 16:39:03 -0500
From: Robyn Michaels <[log in to unmask]>
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To: Africa Matters <[log in to unmask]>, ESC Mosley <[log in to unmask]>,
     James Carlton <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: [AfricaMatters] Fw: ISID LIST: FW: U.S. Presidential Election:
    What's in It for Africa?


-----Original Message-----
From: Aida Olkkonen <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Friday, August 18, 2000 3:24 PM
Subject: ISID LIST: FW: U.S. Presidential Election: What's in It for Africa?


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>
>> US Presidential Election: What's in It for Africa?
>> Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg)
>>
>> OPINION AND ANALYSIS
>> August 18, 2000
>>
>> John Stremlau
>> Johannesburg
>>
>> Political pundits across the United States predict a very close
>> presidential
>> election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush on
November
>> 7.
>>
>> Equally important and also too close to call are several local campaigns
>> that
>> will determine which party controls the US Congress. All 435 seats of the
>> House of Representatives will be contested and a net loss of just six
>> seats
>> would end the Republican majority. Democrats could also take charge of
the
>> 100-member Senate with a net gain of four, although with only a third of
>> the
>> upper chamber up for election Republicans are expected to retain a slim
>> majority.
>>
>> African leaders may ask so what? Will any conceivable outcome alter
>> current US
>> foreign policy in ways that will affect Africa?  Calculations of Africa's
>> stakes in the US elections should begin by acknowledging three political
>> realities.
>>
>> First, foreign policy really does not matter to most Americans. With the
>> Cold
>> War over and the US enjoying the longest period of uninterrupted economic
>> growth in its history, international issues so far have barely been
>> mentioned
>> by any of the candidates because opinion polls repeatedly reveal that
>> voters
>> are not interested. When Bush outlined his vision for leading America in
>> accepting the Republican nomination on August 10, only 3% of his text
>> dealt
>> with foreign affairs and essentially was a pledge to strengthen the US
>> military.
>>
>> Vice-President Al Gore is more expert on world affairs and refers to
>> President
>> Thabo Mbeki as a good friend. But his running mate, Senator Joseph
>> Lieberman,
>> is well- known for his severe criticisms of the Clinton administration's
>> handling of Russia, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo and East Timor. As Carnegie
>> Endowment
>> political analyst Robert Kagan dryly notes, Lieberman's selection
suggests
>> "foreign policy is irrelevant to today's politics".
>>
>> Second, both presidential candidates are saying almost nothing about
>> Africa.
>> The Council on Foreign Relations in New York has tracked all of their
>> speeches, recorded interviews and campaign debates. Bush has mentioned
>> Africa
>> three times, most recently on February 16. In each case he responded to
>> similar questions by declaring US armed forces should not have been used
>> to
>> quell the 1994 Rwanda genocide because it did not "fit into the national
>> strategic interests".
>>
>> Gore has touched on African issues seven times since January 1999,
>> conceding
>> on October 27 last year that "we were tardy in Rwanda". But he seems to
>> share
>> Bush's opposition to the use of US forces in such circumstances.
>>
>> In the only extended remarks either has made on Africa, Gore appeared
>> before
>> the United Nations Security Council on January 10 to appeal for concerted
>> international action to fight HIV/Aids.
>>
>> Surprisingly, an intensifying competition for support among America's 30
>> million people of African descent has not sparked debate about African
>> policy.
>>
>> If the election is close, a high turnout of African-Americans who
>> traditionally vote heavily Democratic is vital to Al Gore. So on July 7
he
>> delivered an address to the convention of the National Association for
the
>> Advancement of Colored People appealing for their support. Yet barely 100
>> words were about Africa policy and he dealt only with the imperative to
>> combat
>> Aids.
>>
>> The third political reality is the extent of bipartisan support for the
>> US's
>> current Africa policy, which will likely continue whoever is elected.
This
>> consensus has been obscured by partisanship in the Congress and with the
>> White
>> House on other issues, including Clinton's impeachment. The extraordinary
>> amount of personal attention paid to Africa by Clinton has also created
>> the
>> impression that African interests will be much better served should the
>> Democrats win both branches of government, as they did in 1992. But in
>> three
>> areas of interest to Africa - peace, poverty reduction and public
health -
>> the
>> past should be seen as prelude.
>>
>> In peace operations, Clinton ignited a firestorm of partisan criticism in
>> 1993
>> over his handling of Somalia, when 18 US professional soldiers died in
>> battle.
>> But he defused this domestically by unfairly blaming the UN and
committing
>> to
>> a total US withdrawal. Since then his refusals to be drawn into conflicts
>> in
>> Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone or anywhere else in Africa have had broad
>> bipartisan support. Meanwhile, the administration's African crisis
>> response
>> initiative, to train African peacekeepers, has been backed by the
>> Republicans,
>> as has last week's decision to send US forces to train 4 000 Nigerians
for
>> peace operations in Sierra Leone. Such efforts are bound to continue next
>> year,
>> whoever wins, but without any direct military engagement.
>>
>> Regarding poverty alleviation, US development assistance remains the
>> lowest
>> percentage of gross national product of any industrialised nation and
>> neither
>> the next president nor leaders in Congress are likely to have the votes
>> for
>> substantial increases.
>>
>> Clinton's singular achievement in helping Africa economically was the
>> passage
>> of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a modest programme for trade
>> enhancement, the centrepiece of which would allow Africa's share of the
US
>> textile market to grow from 0,8% to perhaps 2%. Labour interests within
>> his
>> own party opposed the Bill, which succeeded only because of strong
>> Republican
>> backing. America's main economic interests in Africa are in the handful
of
>> oil- producing countries that account for lll about 85% of lll US trade
>> and
>> investment with the region.
>>
>> Democrats and Republicans have been in agreement not to sanction African
>> oil
>> producers, regardless of their human rights abuses.
>>
>> A bipartisan Bill to sanction Zimbabwe, where the US has no oil
interests,
>> for
>> President Robert Mugabe's abuses of power, sailed through the Senate in
>> June
>> and will be politically difficult for any president to oppose.
>>
>> Finally, the fight against HIV/Aids is one issue of vital importance to
>> Africa, where a growing bipartisan agreement to be more helpful will
offer
>> opportunities for African governments to exert influence regardless of
who
>> wins in November. Earlier this year Clinton declared HIV/Aids a threat to
>> US
>> national security. A recent report by the US census bureau of a 36%
>> infection
>> rate in Botswana, a country long viewed in Washington as an African
>> success
>> story, is only the latest shock.
>>
>> Even more alarming are the estimates that South Africa's current rate of
>> 20%
>> could double by 2010. Last month conservative Republicans joined
moderates
>> and
>> a majority of Democrats in approving extra funds to meet Clinton's
>> original
>> request of $244-million for Aids for the next fiscal year, an increase of
>> more
>> than $190-million.
>>
>> Relative to needs, this amount is still small, but HIV/Aids is one of the
>> few
>> international issues that is gaining attention in Washington.
>>
>> For Bush and Gore the fight against HIV/Aids touches themes of
compassion,
>> family values, community action, education, individual responsibility and
>> other values that both are promoting in their campaigns. There are ways
to
>> involve the US private sector and civil society on an issue that touches
>> American social and sexual mores that are sensitive and contentious but
>> recognised as increasingly important. No other issue offers African
>> leaders as
>> great an opportunity to extract financial and material commitments from
>> the
>> US. It may also be possible to link this campaign to other needs, such as
>> debt
>> relief and development finance.
>>
>> Prospects for securing greater US support will also depend on the scale,
>> intensity and effectiveness of HIV/Aids prevention programmes that South
>> Africa and other affected nations first undertake.
>>
>> John Stremlau is professor of international relations and head of
>> department
>> at the University of the Witwatersrand
>>
>> Copyright © 2000 Mail and Guardian. Distributed by allAfrica.com. For
>> information about the content or for permission to redistribute, publish
>> or
>> use for broadcast, contact the publisher.
>
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