KB:

I was going to respond to your post yesterday but my postings had reached the
daily quota (6) by the time of your last posting.  So my responses were
rejected by some silly message which informed me that only the list manager
was worthy of this privilege ( more than 6 messages).

It is extremely refreshing to see you partially emerge from the shell called
'voter buyout'.  At least you have acknowledged the possibility of other
reasons for the loss.

The premise for the buyout theory is extremely shaky for several reasons:

1.  The number of absentees was roughly equal to the amount during the
parliamentary elections in 1996.  That time around, almost 800 voters were
absent.  The opposition won then.  Was there voter buyout then too? Or does
this strengthen the 'voter apathy' theory which others have postulated as a
reason for low voter turnout?

2. Let's assume that your buyout theory is legitimate for a minute here.
Don't you think claiming all 1000 of the absentees to make up for the 800
vote loss is pushing it a bit too far? This would assume a 100% voter
turnout, an unprecedented event in the history of The Gambia and the World
perhaps.  Even if 801 out of the 1000 absentees voted for the UDP resulting
in a 1 vote margin for the opposition, a record for voter turnout would be
set (over 95%).

3. On the alleged confessions of Baba Jobe and the APRC, we need more hard
evidence than a story from Radio Kang Kang.  The fact remains that there is
no hard evidence which supports these claims.  An admission to vote buying by
the APRC, would be grounds for the UDP to go to court for the reversal of
election results.  Why didn't the UDP take up this strategy if there was hard
evidence that this was indeed true? You call this irrefutable evidence! And
no Jokes from Jobe please.

4. On the thousands of voter card story, it sounds like those extremely
frivolous Bantaba or barber's shop topics which have no basis.  There are
just too many frailties with this story and it would be an absolute waste of
time trying to point them out.  A school kid of about 12 would be able to
figure this one out.

5.   The Kebba and Baldeh money exchange deal is a remote possibility.   But
taking this as gospel is to assume an overwhelming majority of Kiangkas have
no integrity or common sense.  This is hard to believe because from my
experiences in The Gambia, people still do have pride despite the
overwhelming amount of poverty there.  Nevertheless, this contrived story
loses its credibility completely when you state that Kebba, despite being an
APRC supporter, was somehow part of the entourage which delivered the pile of
uncounted ballots rumored to be in the 1000s to the UDP candidate.  And I am
accused of speculating here?

Let's look at your other reasons for a moment here:

Tribalism is not illegal in The Gambia in the same way racism is not illegal
in the USA.  If your allegations are true, Buba Baldeh lead a dirty campaign
but this is nothing new to politics back home.  Yahya Jallow (ex-comissioner
of Basse) was one of my father's best friends.  He is definitely an excellent
gentleman and probably would not associate with a party stooped in tribalism.
 But this is the nature of politics: Dirty campaigns are run and it is up to
the opposition to counter these claims with their own effective propaganda.
The 'non-developemnt theory' also falls into the same category as the
tribalism ploy: Dirty but not illegal.  Again, this is not an excuse for a
loss in my opinion.

The 22nd of July movement excuse is very weak.  This movement is known for
sneak attacks and they cannot terrorize the people of Kiang without severe
repercussions on Baba's boys.  I was once privy to what it is like to enter
hostile opposition territory.  Despite my tender age at the time, the
incident sticks clear as day in my mind.  I was with my late grandfather, an
old PPP stalwart, when we ventured into he main square in Baddibou on a trip
upcountry somewhere.  It took less than 5 minutes for a hostile crowd to
gather and, under desperate barked orders from the old man, the driver made a
quick and narrow escape while bricks and stones rained on the PPP marked Land
Rover from all directions.  A truly terrifying moment!  Baba Jobe's boys will
probably be in for the same treatment should they drive into these
territories.

Again, it is amazing that you refuse to entertain the most plausible fact;
voter apathy.  This has always been a problem associated with Gambian
politics judging by the poor voter turnout in past elections including the
1997 one.  If as is very likely, this was the reason for low voter turnout,
the UDP did not do a great job of preventing this from happening.  There are
other reasons for the loss which we should also address rather than go with
the easy answer: Voter Buyout.  The oppositions is doing a disservice to
themselves by making such unwarranted allegations and by not doing the
necessary analysis and/or efforts required to avoid further defeats like this
in the future.

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