In his friday dispatch, the erudite and circumspect Adam Thiam gives hope to the La-Guinea that fears of ethnic voting are mirages for crimes of opportunity and that by themselves can only advance democracy in La-Guinea after the elections. I take Adam's counsel to heart because I belive that ethnic voting or tribalism are not themselves counter to democratic principles. They form part of the complicated nexxus of democratic value that help to shore up the other freedoms of expression and association for worship and industry. La-Guinea will be interested to know that citizens of all nations of the world rely on ethnic and tribal proclivities as part of a complicated calculus for decision-making. I can only encourage them in that demarche.

In addition to ethnicity and tribal calculus, I encourage La-Guinea to broaden their horizons and consider other more significant calculus such as issues of industry, the economy, employment, human rights, education and health. It is readily apparent that when elections are prosecuted based only on ethnic and or tribal calculus, rarely would they yield a clear and uncontestable winner. That risks chaos and suspicions that may return La-Guinea to her previous state of flux. It will also give ample reason that La-GUinea cannot be governed without the intervention of the military. And the fact that the military is the last repose of a semblance of government is owed to the military's regimented organisation where ethnic pannafore and tribal proclivities are suppressed. The alternative to having your human rights suppressed in lieu of some semblance of governance is to enjoy your human rights while infusing other more relevant calculus than just ethnicity and tribe. Therefore you have a clear choice and you cannot blame anyone but yourselves if you let this epochal moment slip through your fingers for pintucks and pannafore.

My friend Adam also gave another remedy for the recalcitrant tribalist. That is that given the selfish proclivities of humans (ethnicism/tribalism), there is natural innoculation called personal egos. In agreement with Adam, I declare personal ego is a tribalism of its own. Allah works in mysterious ways. This is the reason your honourable Sidya Toure' deduced that the La-Guinea elections cannot be won by any single party because that is mathematically improbable. Indeed the arithemetic Hon. Toure' speaks of is the countervailing impact of ego as against purely ethnic voting. Ego, like tribalism, is no crime. It is also, like tribalism, in line with democratic principles. I rather like to call it passion and convictions than ego for the latter connotes listless greed. Passion and conviction are the natural countervailing forces to wanton decrepitude that was pervasive among the tribes of early muslims and Christians, and indeed all other religions. As the religions progressed and adherents grew, newer antidotes were adopted to temper the affect of pride and prejudice. Therefore, it will be enormously counterproductive to belong to any major religion and still rely on purely ethnic considerations in communal decision-making.

I want to here add another layer of innoculative calculus to my friend Adam's prayer. In La-Guinea, there exists a critical mass of independent persons who transcend tribes and ethnicities by virtue of their birth and vocations. This group is actually the stop-gap to burdensome tribalism as a community evolves. It is not by sheer chance that this group will form the deciding cadre in these your seminal elections. One way you will appreciate this is that for the first time in your quintennial history, La-Guineans in the diaspora are able to cast their votes. The majority of these La-Guineans form this Stop-Gap Group (SGG). Hon Sidya's postulation therefore may not apply to this election, any other election, I would agree, but not this one. Hon. Sidya made his postulation by not taking into account this historic and new paradigm in La-Guinea voting. I decalre therefore, that even if there are the tribal ramparts among resident La-Guineans, the participation of the SGG will undoubtedly have a more lasting and durable impact of any future La-Guinea governance. And any such impact on global La-Guinea governance will certainly neutralize any odious purely ethnic considerations. That is why I continue to encourage your party leaders to seriously consider alliances based on issues rather than on strategic electoral values. I was extremely pleased at the news of Hons. Conde' and Barry seizing upon this game-changing opportunity to combine their parties' fortunes. I will not be surprised if they turn out to be the eventual winner of your election. And it would have been most merited. SHould they turn out to be the eventual victor, I encourage them to form an even greater governance alliance or coalition, quoi que ca soit, in order to enhance the prospects of La-Guinea's survival and fortunes.

Thank you for listening.
Haruna. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Haruna Darbo <[log in to unmask]>
To: GAMBIA-L <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Sun, Jun 27, 2010 2:10 pm
Subject: Transummary of Friday Dispatch from Bamako. The great Adam Thiam on the La-Guinea elction campaigns.




Chronique du vendredi : Croisons les doigts pour la Guinée. We cross our fingers for La-Guinea.
 


Vingt quatre candidats dont une femme pour la première élection véritablement démocratique en cinquante deux ans d’une histoire tumultueuse : deux quarts de siècle d’absolutisme bavard et sanglant (Sékou Touré) puis insouciant et un peu chef de village (Lansana Conté) ; une courte parenthèse à odeur de poudre (Dadis Camara) ; et une transition tricéphale (Sekouba Konaté, Jean Marie Doré, Rabiatou Sérah Diallo) qui sut se rallier à l’essentiel malgré ses éclats de voix. L’espoir, c’est l’enthousiasme fou des foules, le débat installé dans tout le pays. Comme un irrépressible appel de démocratie que rien n’entame. 
24 candidates, including a woman in the first democratic elections in the 52 years of a tumultuous history: Two quarter-cycles of gaucheric and bloody absolutism (Sekou TOure'), then clueless village idiocy (Lansana Conte'); hyphenated despondency (Dadis), and a tricameral transition (Sekouba Konate', Jean Marie Dore', Rabiatou Serah Diallo) which efforts to hang on to the reigns despite their spectacular conflicts. Hope, I declare, is rampant enthusiasm, that threatens to consume the entire nation. Just like the irrepressible call to democracy to hedge against chance derailment.
Ni les imperfections du processus électoral. Ni les mises en garde pas toujours insensées de ceux qui pensent que la Guinée est en train de mettre la charrue devant les bœufs. C’est le très prémonitoire écrivain Moussa Kanté que tout le monde a préféré écouter : « nos élections ne seront ni régulières ni transparentes mais il faut qu’elles se tiennent pour que l’armée rejoigne les casernes pour de bon et que les civils soient en face de leurs responsabilités ». La menace?
Neither electoral imperfections nor the tepid pessimism of those who fear La-Guinea is about to place the cart in front of the cows. It is the clairvoyant writer Moussa Kanteh whose words all the world wishes to cling onto: "Our elections will neither be regular, nor transparent, but we must hold the elections so the military reclaims their barracks and the citizens face their own responsibilities". Menace? WHat Menace???
Que les civils ne s’entendent pas entre eux et l’armée en profiterait pour conserver le pouvoir. Déjà la fête que devrait être le 27 juin a donné ses premières victimes dans l’affrontement totalement scandaleux, hier, entre les partisans de deux candidats. Avant cela, il y a eu des heurts moins graves mais symptomatiques des défis non maîtrisés.
Civilians do not see eye-to-eye, and the military lurks to take advantage of such intractable divisions to preserve power. Already, the celebrations envisaged for June 27th have claimed their first victims in the scandalous clashes yesterday (June 24th) between the partisans of two candidates. Before that, there were skirmishes which were symptomatic of intractable cultural deficits. 
L’affrontement regrettable entre militants de l’UFDG de Cellou Dalein Diallo et de l’UPR de Sidya Touré doit pourtant être tout sauf la répétition d’un désordre à grande échelle. Une probabilité si beaucoup d’électeurs n’ont pas leur carte, les listes affichées devant les bureaux indiqués, si la sécurité du vote n’est pas ferme. Et surtout si un vainqueur est proclamé au premier tour. « C’est mathématiquement improbable » avait prévenu, dès avril, Sidiya Touré, ponctuant son « doute cartésien » de sociologie guinéenne.
The regrettable clash between partisans of Cellou Dalein Diallo's UFDG and Sidya Toure's UPR could have resulted in mayhem deja-vu, a clear possibility if a critical mass of the electorate does not receive its voter cards, or if the voter lists are not displayed properly at the precincts, or even if the integrity of the vote is not ascertained. And above all if a winner is proclaimed in the first round of voting, which according to Sidya TOure' of the UPR is mathematically improbable. And Sidya TOure' is the veritable Guinean sociologist.
Car, les grands partis ont, certes, leurs « minorités de service », dans le directoire de campagne des candidats comme dans celui du parti. Certes, tous les candidats sont allés dans toutes les régions. Mais l’électorat reste tribal. Les partis et les candidats s’en défendent. Mais tout le monde le pense.
To be sure, the largest parties have their ethnic bases who are entrenched in the campaign management and in their rank and file. And even though all the candidates have campaigned all over La-Guinea. The electorate remains intensely tribal. And even though the parties and their candidates all decry that, Every La-Guinean is thinking that way.
C’est en tout cas le cas pour les deux ténors Alpha Condé et Cellou Dalein Diallo que tout le monde voit en finale. Bête noire de Lansana Conté et mythe vivant pour beaucoup de ses compatriotes, le leader du RPG tire surtout sa force du pays Malinké, c’est-à-dire la Haute Guinée. Malgré sa légitimité historique, il n’a pas beaucoup du pays peul, -Moyenne Guinée- qui reste le fief de Cellou Dalein Diallo dont rien ne semble entraver l’ascension.
For all intents and purposes, this is what dogs the two leading candidates Alpha Conde' and Cellou Dalein Diallo. Thanx to the village idiot Lansana Conte' and the living myth that flourishes inside his associates, Alpha Conde' has his strengths in his ethnic Malinke' complex of the Guinea Highlands despite his legitimate history in the struggle for La-Guinea's emancipation. He does not have much support in the ethnic Peul complex of the Guinea Midlands that is the almost exclusive domain of Cellou Dalein Diallo. 
Ni la carrière de dignitaire sous Conté dont il fut, douze ans, ministre puis brièvement Premier ministre, ni les attaques « non prouvées », corrige son entourage, contre sa gestion et son intégrité. Tribalisme au premier degré ? Non, la Guinée n’est tout de même pas les Grands Lacs.
Add to that equation the career diplomat Lansana Kouyate' who served for 12 years under Conte', briefly as Prime Minister, and the unprovoked attacks against his campaign. Tribalism to the first degree????????? NO. La Guinea is not the same as the Great Lakes region of Rwanda and Bujumbura.
This is the part I like and this is what my amicus of Adam will rely on.
Et voici pourquoi : la principale épine dans les pieds de Alpha Condé est quelqu’un de sa propre ethnie : Lansana Kouyaté, Personne ne s’attend, en effet, à une consigne de vote de ce dernier en faveur de Condé et inversement. Entre Ousmane Ba et Cellou Dalein Diallo, même problème. Les deux « Peulhs » se détestent cordialement et irréversiblement.
Here's why: The thorn in ALpha Conde's path is the candidate from his ethnicity, Lansana Kouyate'. No one is crazy enough to allocate Lansana Kouyate's votes to Alpha Conde' even though they are both of Malinke' ethnicity. Conversely, Ousmane Bah and Cellou Dalein Diallo contend with the same disintegral calculus. The two, though of the same Peul ethnicity, are cordially, but irreversibly opposed to each other.
Ironie du sort, mais c’est tant mieux, l’ego des leaders paraît le meilleur garde-fou contre le vote ethnique au second tour. Sauf si méprisant les calculs d’états major, les électeurs revenaient à l’instinct grégaire. « Ce pays est adulte et il ne faut pas l’infantiliser », se plaisent à répéter des leaders guinéens pour lesquels le démon régionaliste ou ethnique est une vue de l’extérieur.
An irony of sorts but but of favourably benign proportions. The egos of the candidates will verily be the natural stop-gap to a purely ethnic vote in either the first or the second round of voting. Should extraordinary calculus intervene, the electorate will regain their instinctive and purely ethnic considerations. "This country has matured and we must not ridicule her so", as the leaders are wont to pacify. For them, the gregarious ethnic pendulums are a phenomenon from outside La-Guinea. 
Dieu les entende dimanche et les jours suivants. Car la Guinée est si près du but que son échec en serait simplement tragique. Et si le pire survenait, la communauté internationale, dans ses salons feutrés, se moquerait une fois de plus de la sauvagerie des Africains. C’est pourtant elle qui aura poussé à la roue.
Allah will be with them Sunday and all the days thereafter. Because La-Guinea is so close to the brink that her fall will be simply tragic. And if decrepitude were to be the victor, the international community, in their fortified encampments, will writhe once more, in the bestiality of Africans. They would have been afterall, the accelerants of such terminal condition for La-Guinea.
Adam Thiam. Allahu Wakubaru.
Transummary by Haruna. June 27th. Germany-England: 4-1 World cup South Africa.
25 Juin 2010.

25 Juin 2010.


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